VZCZCXYZ0000
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHNR #1445/01 0930333
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 030333Z APR 06
FM AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0706
RUEHDS/AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA IMMEDIATE 8376
RUEHDJ/AMEMBASSY DJIBOUTI IMMEDIATE 4092
INFO RUEHXR/RWANDA COLLECTIVE
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 3816

UNCLAS NAIROBI 001445 
 
SIPDIS 
 
AIDAC 
 
DEPT HHS WASHDC 
CDC ATLANTA GA 
USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY 
CJTF HOA PRIORITY 
DEPT OF AGRICULTURE WASHDC PRIORITY 
USDA FAS WASHDC PRIORITY 
SIPDIS 
STATE FORQE, AF/EPS, AF/PD, EB, PRM/AF, IO 
AID FOR A/AID, AA/DCHA, WGARVELINK, LROGERS, MHESS, 
DCHA/OTI, 
DCHA/OFDA FOR GGOTTLIEB, MMARX, IMACNAIRN, KCHANNELL 
DCHA/FFP FOR JDWORKEN, JDRUMMOND, TANDERSON, DNELSON, 
SBRADLEY 
AID/EGAT FOR AA/EGAT, JSCHAFER, JTURK 
AFR/EA FOR JBORNS, SMCCLURE 
ADDIS ABABA FOR TIM STUFFT 
DJIBOUTI FOR JSCHULMAN 
ROME FOR FODAG 
GENEVA FOR NKYLOH 
BRUSSELS FOR PLERNER 
NSC FOR JMELINE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EAID ECON PHUM PREF PREL IGAD CENTCOM KE SO
DY, ET 
 
SUBJECT:  HORN OF AFRICA, STATE - USAID HUMANITARIAN UPDATE 
NUMBER 3 
 
REF:  A)STATE 27057; B)NAIROBI 00968; C)NAIROBI 01238 
 
¶1.  This is the third update cable in response to Ref A 
request for biweekly reports on the humanitarian situation 
in the Horn of Africa.   USAID Missions in Kenya, Ethiopia, 
REDSO Somalia, Djibouti, and OFDA contributed to this 
report. 
 
------------ 
FLASH REPORT 
------------ 
 
¶2.  Early reports from an ongoing (March 25 - April 2) REDSO 
site visit to northeast Kenya - Mandera, El Wak, Wajir, and 
Garissa - describe a bleak picture.  Around Mandera, 
livestock are essentially gone:  A handful of sheep, goats, 
cattle and camels dot the landscape, but even camels, known 
for their resiliency to drought, are dying.  The regional 
Mandera livestock market, once dynamic, has collapsed. 
There are increasing numbers of nomadic families, who have 
lost all their animals, arriving in Mandera town in search 
of food.  It is the end of the road for many of these 
pastoralist "drop-outs", now totally dependent on food aid. 
The World Food Program (WFP) is feeding about 80 percent of 
the population at 75 percent caloric needs, but even this 
may not be enough.  Malnutrition rates range from 21 - 30 
percent in supplementary feeding centers, with large numbers 
of Ethiopians, Kenyans and Somalis being cared for. 
Humanitarian assistance has not yet managed to stabilize the 
deteriorating situation, and more is needed.  In the worst- 
case scenario, famine looms.  In the best case scenario that 
some rains do fall, it will take years for pastoralist 
livelihoods and herds to be re-established. 
 
--------------- 
COUNTRY REPORTS 
--------------- 
 
¶3.  KENYA 
 
UPDATE ON THE HUMANITARIAN/DIPLOMATIC FRONT:  On March 28 in 
Nairobi, the Kenyan Office of the President updated a small 
donor group on a Drought Contingency Fund concept and 
status.  A national Drought Contingency Fund, led by a 
steering committee, has been established to disburse 
prevention and preparedness grants to authorities of drought- 
prone and affected districts within Kenya to address 
recurrent droughts early on.  The European Commission is 
preparing to commit Euro 4.6 million to the initiative. 
 
DONOR RESPONSE UPDATE:  USAID/OFDA has provided a total of 
Dollars 2.6 million to meet non-food needs, and is in the 
process of approving an additional Dollars 2.5 million for 
nutrition and water interventions thQgh UNICEF and other 
NGOs.  On the food aid side, in FY 06 FFP has contributed 
44,890 MT of food aid worth Dollars 32 million.  At present, 
37 percent of WFP's emergency operation (EMOP) requirement 
(Dollars 225 million) has been resourced.  Current 
distributions contain adequate cereals, but are critically 
short of pulses and oil.  This will improve with a FFP 
arrival in May.  There are no new donor EMOP donations. 
 
The Kenyan Red Cross Society reports that Kenyan communities 
(private sector, civil society organizations and 
individuals) have mobilized approximately Dollars 1.4 
 
million cash and Dollars 355,000 in-kind relief resources in 
response to the drought. 
 
UPDATE ON THE FOOD SECURITY SITUATION AND OUTLOOK:  Food 
security in the pastoral households continues to deteriorate 
precariously as the dry season reaches its peak.  The World 
Bank funded Arid Lands Resource Management Project (ALRMP) 
reported that little or no rainfall was received in the 
northeast regions that require the rains most.  Watering 
distances of up to 170 miles for pastoralists in Wajir and 
Mandera actually necessitate migration into Somalia and 
Ethiopia, however, remaining animals are not strong enough 
to trek more than 15-20 miles due to their weakened body 
condition. 
 
REDSO/FFPO, Dan Suther was in Wajir on March 29, and reports 
that the situation is worsening.  Virtually all the animals 
are gone and the few camels left are now dying.  The NGO 
Merlin reports global acute malnutrition rates of 29-30 
percent in supplementary feeding centers.  Pastoralists with 
remaining animals are moving to water points, setting up 
camp and waiting for food aid to arrive.  Pastoralist "drop- 
outs", who have nothing left are moving to urban centers. 
In Mandera district, Suther reports the situation is not any 
better.  The major regional livestock market has collapsed. 
Numbers at the water points and distribution centers in town 
are increasing.  Action Against Hunger (AAH) in Mandera 
reports global malnutrition rates of 21 - 27 percent, with 
30 percent of the children from Ethiopia, and 20 percent 
from Somalia.  Should the long-rains season fail to pick up 
in April, few animals are likely to survive the extended dry 
spell and substantial numbers of pastoralists will lose 
their entire livelihood.   This would add to the growing 
number of pastoralist "drop-outs" that become part of the 
urban poor. 
 
From March 21 - 24, OFDA Regional Advisor Al Dwyer traveled 
to the northern Kenyan district of Marsabit.  Families 
report that although they usually have about 100 head of 
livestock on average, they are down to 20 - 30 animals due 
to lack of pasture and water.  Conflict has arisen between 
tribes, disrupting grazing patterns and exacerbating 
poverty.  WFP is delivering food aid, but is short of pulses 
and oil.  Water trucking has begun, and more boreholes are 
being dug.  OFDA is supporting these efforts through UNICEF. 
The 38 health clinics that OFDA Dwyer visited were 
functioning well.  Failure of the April - May rains will 
eliminate many remaining animals, and force people into 
urban centers in search of food.  Local officials and 
populations highlighted the fact that drought occurs at 
regular intervals, but that they need developmental programs 
to break the boom and bust cycle. 
 
OTHER TOPICS OF SPECIAL INTEREST:  The Kenya Aloe Working 
Group (KAWG) met in Nairobi on March 29, 2006.  Aloe grows 
in northeast Kenya, has good commercial potential - 
cosmetics and medical uses - and would provide income 
diversification for pastoralists. The KAWG brings together a 
large group of stakeholders and development partners 
(including the GOK and the Dutch SNV), and plans to develop 
an official national aloe policy, do fundraising, and 
implement activities. 
 
¶4.  ETHIOPIA 
 
UPDATE ON THE HUMANITARIAN/DIPLOMATIC FRONT:  Needs in the 
Somali and Borena zones are increasing, and the UN has 
issued the 2006 Humanitarian Appeal for Dollars 14 million. 
Only Dollars 2.1 million has been received so far.  USAID 
participated in several GOE Disaster Preparedness and 
Prevention Agency (DPPA) reassessments.  In the Borena Zone 
in the Oromiya region, the team's recommendation is that 
beneficiary numbers be increased from 155,000 to 368,000 to 
cope with worsening drought conditions.  Final official 
figures will be released by the DPPA.  The GOE is leading 
reassessments in Afder and Liben zones of the Somali region, 
and the Afar region.  A critical issue is identifying a 
solution for many of the 435,000 beneficiaries in Afar who 
have been identified to receive food assistance.  Although 
54,600 received emergency food assistance, the rest fell 
under the Productive Safety Net Program, which,Qfortunately, has not been operational in Afar in 2006. 
 
Therapeutic feeding programs have been hampered by a 
requirement to pay duty on imported food, even though used 
for humanitarian purposes.  A sea change may be underway. 
The Ministry of Finance and Economic Development has issued 
a proclamation number to UNICEF that will now allow duty- 
free entry of "plumpy nut" therapeutic food.  It is hoped 
that the proclamation number will apply to all donors and 
NGOs, and clarification is underway. 
 
CARE and the Government of the Oromiya Region have tankered 
over 4 million liters of water to the Borena zone, primarily 
for human consumption but also for livestock. 
 
The Somali Regional Health Bureau and UNICEF have completed 
Enhanced Outreach Strategy activities in 20 zones in the 
Somali Region.  According to UNICEF, 160,000 children 
received vitamin A supplements, 137,000 children were de- 
wormed, and 159,000 children were vaccinated against measles 
(83 percent coverage).  In addition, 48,000 children and 
10,700 pregnant or lactating women were referred to DPPB for 
targeted supplementary feeding. 
 
The Pastoralist Livelihoods Initiative (PLI) response is 
continuing to gain momentum.  Over 140,000 head of livestock 
have been de-stocked, or are in the de-stocking process.  In 
the Somali Region, over 470,000 animals have been 
vaccinated.  An additional 160,000 animals are planned to be 
vaccinated in the Oromiya region. Approximately 27,000 
animals in breeding herds are being maintained by PLI 
partners, with additional animals planned. This intervention 
includes food and sometimes water provision for these herds. 
Additionally 16 animal health care workers have been trained 
and deployed. 
 
DONOR RESPONSE UPDATE:  As of March 26, 2006 DPPA has 
reported 18 percent and 11 percent of food allocations were 
dispatched for the Somali region for February and March 
respectively.  The reported dispatches for the Oromiya 
region are 86 and 4 percent for February and March 
respectively. 
 
The food pipelines for CSB and cereals break in June, 2006, 
and for pulses and oil at the end of December 2006.  WFP 
estimates an additional 250,000 MT of cereals and CSB will 
be required for the second half of 2006.  A small CSB 
donation was made by the Italians after it was requested by 
WFP, but this donation only fills the CSB pipeline through 
 
the end of June.  No other donors have made further 
commitments to WFP at this time. 
 
USAID/OFDA is supporting rapid response water and nutrition 
interventions totaling Dollars 300,000.  Furthermore, 
USAID/OFDA has awarded grants to CHF International for water 
and sanitation projects in Gode and Afder Zones of the 
Somali Region, to Merlin for water and sanitation in West 
Imi in Afder Zone, and to Population Services International 
(PSI) to provide water treatment products and treated bed 
nets to other OFDA water and nutrition partners responding 
to the drought. Implementation of these projects and several 
more currently under review will help fill a major gap in 
the drought response thus far. 
 
UPDATE ON THE FOOD SECURITY SITUATION AND OUTLOOK:  FEWSNET 
reports that the belg rains have been erratic and late 
across Ethiopia.  In the most affected regions of southeast 
Ethiopia, no rains have fallen, raising concern that cattle 
conditions will be as bad as they were in the 2000 severe 
drought.  On the other hand, the onset of good rains in the 
higher altitude regions of the Oromiya region has been 
reported.  Browse has regenerated for camels and goats, and 
pasture is showing the initial signs of recovery. 
 
¶5.  SOMALIA 
 
UPDATE ON THE HUMANITARIAN/DIPLOMATIC FRONT:  On March 21 in 
Nairobi, the revised UN Consolidated Appeal (CAP) for 
Somalia was launched.  The revised CAP seeks Dollars 326.7 
million for 92 projects for the remaining of the year.  At 
this point, Dollars 79 million or 24 percent has been 
committed against the appeal, and water and health needs 
remain largely unfunded.  The UN Humanitarian Coordinator 
stressed that Somalia's infant, child and maternal mortality 
rates are among the highest in the world; average life 
expectancy is just 48 years; and primary school enrollment 
rates are the lowest in the world, and appealed to the 
humanitarian community to scale up its current response. 
 
Somali political leaders including the President, Prime 
Minister, and Speaker of the Parliament, joined Inter- 
governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) Foreign 
Ministers and Heads of State in Nairobi March 18-20 for the 
11th Summit of IGAD Heads of State and Government. 
Discussion among the Heads of State focused on whether and 
how to provide external military support to the Somali 
Transitional Federal Institutions (TFIs) meeting in Baidoa, 
Somalia.  The Summit's final communique reiterated the 
principal elements set out by the UN Security Council, 
leading observers to hope that IGAD will now take a back 
seat to the Somali institutions in developing a National 
Security Plan. 
 
Heavy fighting broke out again in the capital March 22-26. 
Forces of the members of the Alliance for the Restoration of 
Peace and Fighters Against Terrorism -- ARPFAT -- have been 
encircled in their strong-holds.  The principal antagonist 
against members of the ARPFAT in this episode of fighting, 
businessman/Islamic Court financier Abucar Omar Adani (a 
major shipper and distributor of food assistance for WFP), 
is now in control of all areas critical to his and the 
Banadir Corporation business cartel's commercial operations 
out of the El Ma'an port.  The members of the ARPFAT have 
seen their income generating capabilities crippled, although 
 
Adaani has stated that he has now established security over 
the El Ma'an port infrastructure for the use of all Somali 
business interests. 
 
DONOR RESPONSE UPDATE:  A drought committee in Mogadishu 
announced on January 30, 2006 that it had raised Dollars 
165,000 in cash, 444 MT of assorted food donations, and 15 
water tankers.  The donations were raised through an 
innovative telethon coordinated through three local 
telephone companies and organized jointly by the Somali 
Institute of Management and Administration Development 
(SIMAD) and Radio Horn Afrik in collaboration with a wide 
number of civil society representatives.   Sixty percent of 
contributors were from women and most donations were from 
Mogadishu. 
 
UPDATE ON THE FOOD SECURITY SITUATION AND OUTLOOK:  FEWSNET 
reports localized rains in parts of Lower Juba, Bay and 
Gedo.  However, while they providd some very short-term 
relief, they were not enough to slow a deteriorating food 
security situation, and people are resorting to their own 
coping mechanisms such as reducing the number of meals, 
eating wild fruits, and moving to IDP/destitute camps and 
urban centers.  Complete out migration to main towns for 
social support and labor were also reported.  There has been 
an increase in the slaughtering of weak and newly born 
animals.  FEWSNET estimates that 80 percent of the cattle, 
and 40 - 50 percent of sheep and goats have died.  The 
Somalia FEWSNET Representative traveled to Gedo to 
investigate reports of human deaths.  He estimates that 20 - 
45 people died (about one-half of them children) from a 
combination of malnutrition, related disease, and thirst. 
The FEWSNET Representative said that most of the deaths 
occurred in nomadic households who are far from roads and 
villages, and likely missed food aid distributions.  He also 
said food aid distributions by WFP, CARE, ICRC, Muslim aid, 
and the business community are in progress, although 
quantities are not sufficient (he mentioned one bag of 
sorghum and some oil per household) for the level of need. 
 
OTHER TOPICS OF SPECIAL INTEREST:  We understand funding has 
been approved for 24 FEWSNET monitors in Somalia to collect 
market and rainfall data.  This is welcome news, although we 
still highlight the need for supplemental funding to enhance 
analysis and travel by the FEWS/Somalia office based in 
Nairobi.  Already, the rumor mill is churning with reports 
of deaths and communities not receiving food aid.  Without 
the ability to separate truth from rumor, there will be 
imbalances in the humanitarian response, which are likely to 
lead to increased attacks on humanitarian deliveries and 
further jeopardize the provision of assistance to those in 
need.  We request rapid consideration of FEWSNET Somalia's 
request for funding to monitor the nearly Dollars 60 million 
in FY 06 USG humanitarian assistance to date.  It is 
critical to have independent humanitarian assistance 
monitoring capacity in Somalia, whether through FEWSNET or 
another body. 
 
Access is becoming more challenging for food aid agencies. 
On March 21, clan fighting broke out at a WFP distribution 
site outside Bualla in the Juba region killing one person. 
An ICRC relief convoy was attacked in Belet Weyne, and there 
was at least one casualty.   Following these security 
incidents, the UN Security Office has advised that 
expatriate staff should stay out of the Juba Valley - the 
 
exact area most affected by the drought where food aid is 
needed. 
 
¶6.  DJIBOUTI 
 
UPDATE ON THE HUMANITARIAN/DIPLOMATIC FRONT: Increasing 
numbers of pastoralists face a high risk of dropping out of 
pastoralism due to progressive erosion of their livestock 
assets.  Malnutrition levels from clinics and rapid 
assessments are high with fatality rates exacerbated by the 
poor state of health services. 
 
DONOR RESPONSE UDPATE:  WFP plans to feed up to 88,000 
people in April.  The humanitarian response if kept at that 
level and well targeted is expected to be sufficient to 
prevent the humanitarian situation from deteriorating. 
 
UPDATE ON THE FOOD SECURITY SITUATION AND OUTLOOK:  Recent 
showers have resulted in marginal improvements in water and 
pasture, and satellite images indicate some `greening' 
between February and March as a result of these showers. 
There have also been reports of actual rains during this 
period to corroborate the satellite information.  However, 
these rains are considered insufficient to make any 
significant improvements in the food security situation. 
There have been no major increases in market prices of food 
and other consumable commodities in the city.  A stable 
situation in the city usually has positive implications for 
rural households who receive remittances from city 
relatives. 
 
---------- 
CONCLUSION 
---------- 
 
¶7.  As this report describes, drought is deepening across 
the Horn of Africa causing increasing numbers of pastoralist 
"drop-outs", or those who have lost all their animals, to 
become dependent on humanitarian assistance for survival. 
Current humanitarian assistance, especially non-food 
activities, has not been adequate to protect livelihoods. 
In the best case scenario that some rains fall over the next 
several months, it is unlikely they will reverse the 
deteriorating food security situation and will likely cause 
water borne diseases and mortality among weakened humans and 
animals.  Given that forecasts show a high probability of 
 
normal to below normal rains, donors should mobilize now and 
prepare for the worst.  As one of the Kenya's tribal saying 
goes, "Koth en chiemo' which means `Rain is food'. 
 
BELLAMY