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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 NAHA 000096 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: MARR PREL JA
SUBJECT: OKINAWA'S NEXT GOVERNOR:  POSSIBLE CANDIDATES 
 
¶1. (SBU) Introduction: In the following discussion of possible 
candidates for governor in this November's gubernatorial 
election, it is worth noting that Okinawa, unlike Japan as a 
whole, has had a functioning two-party system since reversion in 
¶1972.  Since that time, Okinawa has seen the fortunes of the 
conservatives and "reformists" (as the group of left-of-center 
parties is known) rise and fall.  Since election of the first 
governor in 1968, three reformists and two conservatives have 
held the post.  Although major issues and big personalities can 
have a significant impact on candidates' electoral fortunes, the 
one certainty about Okinawan politics is that the two parties do 
tend to trade roles as the majority and minority.  With the 
conservatives under Governor Inamine having been in the majority 
now since 1998, many of our contacts suggest (either fearfully 
or enthusiastically, depending on their views) that this autumn 
the political pendulum will again swing the reformists' way and 
result in them capturing the governorship, setting up further 
reformist victories in elections in Ginowan city in 2007 and the 
prefectural assembly in 2008.  Given that the reformists have 
been quite consistent in uncompromisingly  rejecting relocation 
of Futenma Air Station within Okinawa, the result of this 
November's election is obviously of more than passing interest 
to the USG.  End introduction. 
 
¶2. (U) Summary.  Okinawan media and political leaders have 
already begun handicapping potential candidates for this 
November's gubernatorial election.  Neither the conservatives 
nor reformists yet have a clear front-runner.  Incumbent 
Governor Keiichi Inamine has not officially stated whether he 
will seek a third term, but gives every indication that he will 
not.  Whoever the candidates are, it is safe to predict that 
relocation of Futenma will be a central issue in this autumn's 
campaign.  End Summary. 
 
Preview of Governor's Race-Conservative Camp 
 
¶3. (SBU) Although he has not announced officially whether he 
will run for for a third term this November, Governor Inamine 
has told ConGen on numerous occasions that he has no intention 
of running again; he has made similar unambiguous declarations 
to conservative lawmakers in Okinawa.  Nevertheless, a few 
conservatives have recently expressed interest in a third 
Inamine term, calling him the conservatives' best choice out of 
a likely field of uninspiring choices this November.  LDP 
advisor Professor Tsuneo Oshiro noted that while he didn't think 
Inamine would run again, he believed he would win if he did; 
Oshiro noted that in the last gubernatorial election, Inamine 
won in every voting block in the prefecture.  In the upcoming 
election, Inamine would be in a particularly strong position if 
he chose to run, thought Oshiro: most conservatives would feel 
compelled to back him if he ran again, and many 
reformist-inclined voters might vote for the governor because of 
his opposition to the "coastal Schwab" plan for Futenma. 
Hiroshi Goya, acting president of the independent-reformist Sozo 
political group, told Polmil officer that Inamine was likely to 
stay on because the conservatives did not have a stronger 
candidate, a comment echoed by reformist Professor Masaaki Gabe. 
 
 
NAHA 00000096  002 OF 005 
 
 
 
¶4. (SBU) With Inamine's intentions unclear, speculation on other 
possible conservative candidates has been underway since 
January, running the gamut from big name players to wildly 
speculative dark horses.  The top name currently is Okinawa 
Electric Company Chairman Hirokazu Nakaima.  LDP Okinawa 
Executive Director Nakamatsu told Polmil officer that the 
conservative camp's kingmaker, Kanehide group chairman Hideno 
Goya, personally backed Nakaima because he found Nakaima to be a 
person "who would say what needed to be said for the sake of the 
people." 
 
¶5. (SBU) While Nakaima was said to be very interested in 
running, Nakamatsu admitted he did not have much public appeal. 
He also lacked full support within critical business and 
economic circles.  Nakamatsu said the LDP had sounded out party 
supporters in early February about whom they would like to stand 
for governor.  Influential construction company President 
Yukikazu Kokuba said that he thought Nakaima was the best 
because "he did what he said he would do," calling him the 
"Okinawan version of Koizumi."  Yoshiyama Seian, Chairman of the 
Small-Medium Business Federation, told Nakamatsu and other LDP 
officials that he did not support Nakaima because of his 
"private problems," probably an allusion to Nakaima's reported 
penchant for womanizing and consumption of alcohol.  Professor 
Oshiro noted another potential problem was that Nakaima and 
Inamine did not get along personally, which would make party 
unity during the campaign more problematic.  Relations between 
the two have been strained since Nakaima publicly criticized 
Inamine at an LDP New Year's party in January for refusing to 
accept the US-GOJ defense realignment agreement's requirement 
for Futenma relocation, saying Inamine was risking the vital 
Tokyo-Okinawa economic pipeline. 
 
¶6. (SBU) The Okinawan media have also mentioned Vice-Governor 
Noriaki Kakazu, National Diet member Kozaburo Nishime, and 
Urasoe Mayor Mitsuo Gima as potential conservative candidates. 
Our contacts generally assess that Kakazu, while popular and 
thought to be honest, is not seen as a good politician because 
he tries to please everyone.  The LDP's Nakamatsu flatly told 
Polmil officer that Kakazu did not have the leadership skills to 
be governor, although he enjoys good relations with 
national-level LDP politicians.  Diet member Nishime, though 
well respected both inside and outside Okinawa, is unlikely to 
run.  According to Nakamatsu, Nishime would not risk his safe 
seat in the Diet in an uncertain attempt to become governor. 
Mayor Gima is viewed as somewhat of a dark horse, but has 
significant strengths, according to our interlocutors.  Gima has 
a sterling political reputation as a middle-of-the-road 
conservative; is a popular mayor of a major city; and has 
significant ties with centrist and non-affiliated political 
groups, most notably "Sozo," the creation of energetic 
independent Diet member Mikio Shimoji.  Shimoji has told ConGen 
he is looking for a candidate his group could support, and 
recently a Sozo member told pol-mil officer that Gima was high 
on Shimoji's list.  Gima's non-ideological, flexible attitude 
toward US military bases would undoubtedly appeal to many 
conservative voters. 
 
NAHA 00000096  003 OF 005 
 
 
 
The Reformist Camp: 
 
¶7. (SBU) Within the "reformist" coalition, no name has yet 
emerged as a likely contender.  Among the possible candidates, 
the most frequently mentioned name is Okinawan Socialist Masses 
Party (OSMP) upper house Diet member Keiko Itokazu.  Governor 
Inamine recently told ConGen he thought Itokazu would be the 
strongest possible reformist candidate, although he had no idea 
if she wanted to run.  In ConGen's observation, Itokazu is an 
impressive, relentless debater, particularly on military base 
issues.  There is some trepidation within the Okinawan LDP about 
the prospect of facing an Itokazu candidacy; party executive 
director Nakamatsu told us recently that if the race were 
between Itokazu and Nakaima, Nakaima would lose. 
 
¶8. (SBU) Some interlocutors doubt that Itokazu would risk her 
Diet seat for a shot at the  governorship.  Reformist Okinawa 
City mayoral candidate and former national Diet member Mitsuko 
Tomon told Polmil chief that Itokazu was unlikely to try for 
governor because the Diet was "perfect for her."  Tomon noted 
that Diet members get good salaries, get to live in Tokyo and 
are not responsible for actually making things happen in the way 
a governor or mayor would be. 
 
¶9. (SBU) The LDP's Nakamatsu speculated that if Tomon won the 
April 23 Okinawa City election, reformists might push Itokazu to 
run as part of a "trend for women candidates."  Sozo Acting 
President Goya said that even if Itokazu didn't want to run, she 
would have to if her supporters insisted.  Ryukyu University 
Professor Oshiro agreed, saying reformists wanted the governor's 
seat more than they wanted a Diet seat.  They would insist if 
they believed Itokazu had the best chance of winning.  Komeito 
Okinawa City Assemblyman Esu noted that with almost half of 
Okinawa City's voters being women, female candidates were 
perceived as having the advantage in elections because they 
could convincingly push childcare and education issues.   Still, 
the reformist camp has not coalesced behind her (or anyone 
else).  Reformist Professor Gabe described Itokazu as a "single 
issue protestor."  He argued that she was not well rounded, 
being strong only on anti-base and military issues. 
 
¶10. (SBU) Other potential reformist candidates occasionally 
mentioned include Ginowan City Mayor Yoichi Iha, and lower house 
Diet member Teruya Kantoku.  Professor Gabe thought that while 
Iha was very ambitious and interested in running for governor, 
he was too junior, as he had only won one election.  Most of our 
contacts believe Iha has neither the breadth nor depth on 
Okinawa-wide issues to run, nor the necessary ties to Tokyo; 
many add that his election as Ginowan City mayor in 2003 was due 
mainly to two conservative candidates splitting the vote. 
Almost no one takes seriously the possibility of a Teruya 
candidacy, since the veteran lawmaker has been in visibly poor 
health since suffering a stroke in early 2005. 
 
Others 
 
¶11. (SBU) Independent Diet member Mikio Shimoji leads the pack 
 
NAHA 00000096  004 OF 005 
 
 
of possible independent candidates.  Described by Governor 
Inamine as "the most active politician in Okinawa," Shimoji 
frequently appears on national TV and has strong ties among many 
younger, centrist politicians in Okinawa, chiefly among various 
city council members.  Were he to run, Shimoji would probably 
face the united opposition of the Okinawa LDP, which has been 
furious with Shimoji since he openly (and unsuccessfully) backed 
the reformist candidate for mayor in Naha in 2004; Shimoji and 
the LDP formally parted ways last year.  People close to Shimoji 
have told ConGen he is unlikely to run because his victory in 
the September 2005 Diet race was close and he would not risk 
another race so soon.  Sozo acting president Goya told Polmil 
officer he thought Shimoji owed it to his supporters to stay in 
the Diet. 
 
¶12. (SBU) Former Hosei University professor Minoru Higa has been 
(rarely) mentioned by a few observers.  Unlike most other 
possible candidates, Higa seems ready to run; he has already 
begun his campaign, sending sound trucks through the streets 
months ahead of the official campaign season. However, few give 
him good odds on winning.  Higa is said to have a good 
personality but weak leadership skills.  Higa apparently is 
realistic about his chances, letting some of his supporters know 
that if Urasoe mayor Gima decides to run for governor, Higa will 
switch his efforts to try to replace Gima. 
 
Municipal Race a Bellwether for the Prefectural Race? 
 
¶13. (SBU) Over the past thirty years, local political lore has 
asserted that the party which wins the Okinawa City mayoral 
election will almost certainly win the gubernatorial election 
later that year; in fact, this truism is generally accurate. As 
a result, attention in Okinawa has been focused heavily in 
recent weeks on the upcoming April 23 Okinawa City election, 
which pits former Upper House member Mitsuko Tomon (reformist) 
against conservative Sachio Kuwae, son of former Okinawa City 
mayor Choko Kuwae.  At this point, most observers believe 
Kuwae's chances of victory are poor, saying he has three strikes 
against him - low name recognition, lack of support from 
Komeito, and lack of campaign funds.  Kuwae's opponent, 
Socialist Democratic Party member Tomon, is a very strong 
candidate because of her political experience and resulting name 
recognition.  Tomon has told us she is fighting the campaign of 
her political life, and that if she wins she hopes to become the 
reformists' candidate for the 2010 gubernatorial election. 
 
¶14. (SBU) Because Governor Inamine is convinced the results of 
the Okinawa City election will be widely perceived as a forecast 
of the likely gubernatorial election result in November, he has 
decided to hold off announcing his intentions until after the 
new mayor takes office.  The LDP's Nakamatsu told us the party 
could not afford to wait much beyond that because it would need 
to begin campaigning.  He said that until Inamine announced that 
he would not seek a third term, the party's hands were tied and 
that he hoped Inamine would make a decision sometime in May. 
 
Futenma Relocation to be a Hot Issue in November 
 
 
NAHA 00000096  005 OF 005 
 
 
¶15. (SBU) Regardless of who the two candidates are in November, 
Futenma relocation within Okinawa is guaranteed to be one of the 
main issues in the campaign.  The reformist candidate can be 
safely predicted to oppose relocation within Okinawa (this has 
been the consistent position of reformist candidates since the 
1996 SACO agreement).  The conservative candidate's statements 
will be examined minutely by the reformist media for signs of 
flexibility on relocation, with such signs invariably portrayed 
by the media as indications of weakness and unjustified 
accommodation with a central government intent on ignoring the 
wishes of the Okinawan people.  Former Governor Masahide Ota's 
refusal to agree to relocation was the key issue in the 1998 
election that saw his defeat by Keiichi Inamine; in that year, 
most Okinawans had grown weary of Ota's eight years of 
ideologically-motivated attacks on the US-Japan alliance, and 
were worried that four more years of the same could jeopardize 
the vital "pipeline" of GOJ subsidies to Okinawa.  What the mood 
of the electorate will be in November is  unpredictable, but so 
far we have seen little reason (notwithstanding recent local 
media polls asserting a strong majority of Okinawans disagrees 
with Futenma relocation within the prefecture) that the 
electorate will not be realistic and flexible toward military 
base issues this year. 
REICH