VZCZCXRO3648
PP RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHIHL RUEHKUK
DE RUEHMOS #0046/01 1041239
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 141239Z APR 06
FM REO MOSUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0472
INFO RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUCNRAQ/IRAQ COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA PRIORITY 0009
RUEHLU/AMEMBASSY LUANDA 0066
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 0049
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 0053
RUEHMOS/REO MOSUL 0491

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MOSUL 000046 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL:  4/14/2016 
TAGS: PREL PINS PINT PGOV PHUM IZ MARR
SUBJECT: NINEWA: PUK NATIONAL ASSEMBLYMEMBER CONFIDENT IMPASSE OVER 
GOVERNMENT FORMATION WILL BE SOLVED SOON 
 
MOSUL 00000046  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: Cameron  Munter, PRT Leader, Provincial 
Reconstruction Team Ninewa, State. 
REASON: 1.4 (a), (b), (d) 
 
 
 
------- 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
¶1.  (C) PUK national assemblymember from Ninewa Abdelbari Al 
Zebari is an optimist.  On a recent visit to Turkey with PUK 
colleagues for talks with members of the Turkish parliament, the 
delegation was told -- repeatedly -- that the Iraqis should "get 
accustomed" to the idea of working with the Turks, since the 
U.S. was leaving soon.  But such sentiments from long-time 
Turkish adversaries cannot sway his belief that the USG will 
always stand by Iraq, claims Zebari.  He views the current 
impasse over government formation in Baghdad as a positive 
event, one that will humble the Shia coalition and remind them 
that they are not the only political group with power in the 
country.  He says cracks are visible in the Shia coalition and 
that the day is near when Prime Minister Ibrahim Al Ja'afari 
will withdraw his candidacy, freeing up the Shia nomination to 
better suited candidates such as Abdul Al Mahdi of SCIRI.  If 
not, then the Shia coalition -- or whatever is left of it -- 
will find life very difficult, as secular parties, Sunni Arabs, 
and the Kurds are likely to work together.  Zebari is looking 
forward to provincial elections in Ninewa sometime later this 
year.  Although he expects the Kurds to lose seats in the 
provincial council, he believes more qualified candidates will 
come forward.  The government's problems so far have been the 
fault of its weak leadership, he says.  Efforts with the KRG are 
progressing well, claims Zebari, and both the KDP and PUK are 
working to battle corruption to attract investors from in and 
outside of Iraq.  End Summary. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) PRT PolOff met with Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) 
national assemblymember Abdelbari Al Zebari, and public affairs 
officers Sheikh Mahmood and Sheikh Moyadeen at PUK Guesthouse in 
Mosul on April 12. 
 
------------------- 
PUK VISIT TO TURKEY 
------------------- 
 
¶3.  (C) Zebari just returned from a visit to Turkey with a 
delegation from the PUK.  He said they met with the major 
political groups in the country, but not with any Turkish Kurd 
parties.  He said the delegation spoke to Necati Cetinkaya, 
Member of Parliament from the AK Parti (Justice and Peace 
Party), as well as with former Turkish Ambassador to NATO and 
Member of Parliament Onur Oymen.  Zebari said the talks were 
very adversarial.  He said all the Turkish officials they met 
with, regardless of political affiliation, were singing a chorus 
of "The USG is going to leave soon and you'll have to play with 
us.  So, you better get used to it."  Zebari said he met with 
future Turkish Consul General to Mosul, Avni Botsali.  Zebari 
said he recommended to Botsali not move too quickly as the 
security situation in Mosul was not stable.  Plus, the location 
of the former consulate was very unsafe as it was bordered on 
either direction by major roads--ripe for mortaring, he said. 
Zebari claimed Botsali told him the Turks were now relying on 
the GOI and Ninewa provincial government to help locate a 
permanent site for the consulate.  Botsali planned to return to 
Mosul in four to six weeks, he said.  Without saying so 
directly, Zebari believed that Botsali was hoping/implying the 
USG would allow the Turks to operate off of a U.S. military base 
in Mosul until they got settled.  [NOTE: U.S. forces cannot 
offer such support to the Turks because of base relocations]. 
 
---------------------------- 
CENTRAL GOVERNMENT FORMATION 
---------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (C) Zebari, ever optimistic, was certain that the new 
government formation talks would prove fruitful.  The 
parliamentarians were slated to begin sessions this coming 
Monday, April 17.  He believed Shia coalition prime minister 
nominee Ibrahim Al Ja'afari would step aside, or be forced to do 
so because of rumors of a "crack" in the coalition.  As a result 
Abdul Al Mahdi of the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution of 
Iraq (SCIRI) would most likely replace Ja'afari as the 
coalition's nominee.  Grand Ayatollah Sistani even said in the 
press that the coalition was cracking, said Zebari.  Scientist 
 
MOSUL 00000046  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
Hussein Sharastani, a technocrat, was a long shot, although 
Zebari still felt he was the best candidate on the Shia side. 
If Ja'afari didn't step aside then the Kurds would align with 
whoever broke away from the Shia coalition, as well as with 
secular and Sunni Arab coalitions.  Zebari claimed that gruff 
political tactics by Iraqi President Jalal Talabani had upset 
many people, but someone had to step up to lead the country 
since Ja'afari was not.  If Ja'afari stepped aside, claimed 
Zebari, the new government could be formed in a matter of weeks. 
 The Kurd coalition hoped to retain the presidency, even if 
another Kurd replaced Talabani, he said.  The PUK would hold 
such a position if all worked out well, since that was what both 
the PUK and Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) had agreed upon. 
 
------------------- 
PROVINCIAL POLITICS 
------------------- 
 
¶5.  (C) Zebari remained hopeful that provincial elections would 
occur sometime later this year.  The new government had to be 
formed and the new election laws written, he said.  Ninewa's 
current provincial administration, while predominantly Kurdish, 
was failing the people, claimed Zebari.  He said its problems 
were the fault of the personalities on the provincial council, 
but most importantly because of weak leaders like Vice Governor 
Khasro Goran.  He said he was ashamed of the poor job the 
provincial government was doing.  Although any new election 
would ultimately result in the Kurds losing seats, Zebari said 
he hoped it would be more responsive to the people of Ninewa. 
The last provincial election in January 2005 occurred too soon, 
he said, and truly qualified candidates were afraid to run for 
office given that the city just fell to terrorists two months 
earlier.  Zebari hoped that better and more qualified candidates 
would come forward.  Perhaps, then the province would move in 
the right direction.  The economy was doing poorly and that 
contributed to security problems.  Investment was needed but it 
was a two-way street, since no one would invest if the security 
continued at the same level or worsened over time, he said. 
Zebari claimed the farming sector in Ninewa could not be allowed 
to fail, since that was the bread and butter of the province, or 
Ninewa would be lost. 
 
-------------- 
KURDISH ISSUES 
-------------- 
 
¶6.  (C) Relations with the KDP were improving and the two 
parties had been working better together, especially with 
addressing problems of corruption in Iraqi Kurdistan.  Both 
parties had agreed to form commissions to investigate corruption 
and to submit reports on how to battle and correct it, he said. 
The importance of the issue was not lost on either side since 
the goal was to lure investors, especially foreign, Zebari said. 
 Regardless, there were many things to be proud of in Iraqi 
Kurdistan.  Construction of the new American University in 
Sulaymaniyah was progressing well, and safety had been 
improving.  Relations with the Kurdistan Islamic Union (KIU) was 
getting better, now that they realized they needed to work 
together as Kurds, he said.  KIU recently rejoined the Kurd 
coalition in the national assembly in Baghdad, and had also done 
so in the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG).  Although there 
had not been an official announcement, Zebari believed KIU's 
move was a step in the right direction.  Otherwise, people would 
continue to associate the party with the Sunni Arab-dominated 
Iraqi Islamic Party (IIP), thereby forcing Kurds to choose 
between their allegiances as Kurds and Islamic beliefs, he said. 
 With regards to Iraqi central government formation in Baghdad, 
however, KIU was being unreasonable, he claimed, because they 
were requesting three ministerial positions when they only won 
five seats.  This was something unlikely to happen since the two 
larger parties, PUK and KDP, were already anticipating a 
difficult road ahead with securing their own minister positions. 
 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶7.  (C) Ever the optimist, Zebari's words on the future of Iraq, 
Ninewa, and Iraqi Kurdistan are always encouraging.  He believes 
the current impasse over the formation of the central government 
is a positive test of democracy in Iraq because it is preventing 
the Shia coalition from forcing its selection of Ja'afari on the 
other political parties.  Zebari says he believes it will make 
the Shia coalition more humble in its dealings with other 
 
MOSUL 00000046  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
parties, especially with regards to cabinet and ministerial 
selection.  In short, democracy in Iraq is working, claims 
Zebari. 
MUNTER