VZCZCXRO6801
RR RUEHCD RUEHGD RUEHHO RUEHMC RUEHNG RUEHNL RUEHRD RUEHRS RUEHTM
DE RUEHME #2240/01 1171320
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 271320Z APR 06
FM AMEMBASSY MEXICO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0547
INFO RUEHXC/ALL US CONSULATES IN MEXICO COLLECTIVE
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MEXICO 002240 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR MX
SUBJECT: CALDERON SCORES BIG IN FIRST PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary:  As measured both by the polls and the 
pundits, National Action Party (PAN) presidential candidate 
Felipe Calderon emerged the big winner in yesterday's 
presidential debate, offering a national audience a polished, 
well-organized and engaging summary of his platform.  His 
principal opponent in the debate, Institutional Revolutionary 
Party (PRI) candidate Roberto Madrazo, while aiming for the 
political center, appeared to alienate many voters with his 
aggressive attacks and his uneasy manner.  Patricia Mercado 
of the Alternative Social Democratic and Peasant Alliance 
(Alternativa) proved the surprise of the evening, offering a 
polished, composed and engaging performance that will surely 
strengthen her party's chances of reaching the 2% threshold 
necessary to be officially registered as a party.  The other 
minor party candidate, Roberto Campa of the Nueva Alianza, 
assumed the role of the spoiler, relentlessly attacking 
Madrazo's integrity, decency, and even his attitude towards 
women.  The four candidates referred infrequently to Andres 
Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO), the candidate of the leftist 
Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD), who in a 
controversial decision opted not to participate and whose 
absence was symbolized by an empty lectern.  While 
post-debate polls suggest that AMLO's refusal to participate 
could cost him some support, it remains to be seen whether 
this damage proves long-term.  Although with two over months 
left in the campaign, we do not expect last night's debate to 
be decisive, it likely provided Calderon with renewed 
momentum, at the expense of Madrazo and AMLO.  End summary. 
 
Polls and Pundits Give Victory to Calderon 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶2.  (U) Post-debate polls published in the April 26 edition 
of Reforma showed that 43% of viewers considered Calderon the 
winner of the debate, as opposed to 18% for Madrazo, 14% for 
Mercado, and 7% for Campa.  A panel of approximately 300 
pundits and opinion makers in Mexico City, Monterrey, and 
Guadalajara favored Calderon even more strongly than the 
viewing audience: 71% considered Calderon the winner, as 
opposed to 11% for Madrazo, 9% for Mercado, and 6% for Campa. 
 The same group asserted that they viewed Calderon and 
Mercado more favorably as a result of the debate, while 
viewing Madrazo and AMLO less favorably. 
 
Calderon: "Candidate of Ideas, President of Solutions" 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Most analysts concur that Calderon won the debate 
both on substance and on style.  He appeared confident, 
relaxed and in good humor, and spoke more slowly and evenly 
than in some early campaign appearances.  Characterizing 
himself as a "candidate of ideas," he tended to offer more 
detailed policy prescriptions than the other candidates, 
enumerating his points in a logical, easy-to-follow manner. 
With respect to fiscal policy, he said he favored (i) 
reducing income tax rates and possibly adopting a flat tax, 
(ii) simplifying tax filing procedures, (iii) increasing the 
transparency surrounding the use of government funds, (iv) 
targeting government funds to social programs with a real 
impact on quality of life, such as health insurance for 
children, and (v) increasing economic stability, in part by 
protecting property rights.  Calderon described his labor 
policy with one word: "jobs."  He said he would seek to 
create jobs by increasing Mexico's competitiveness, including 
by lowering energy costs and interest rates.  He promised to 
provide financial incentives for companies to hire young 
workers, to create day care centers for working mothers, and 
to provide financing for small and medium size enterprises 
(SME).  Calderon said he supported allowing strategic 
alliances with private capital in the energy sector, 
particularly power generation and deep-water oil exploration, 
and advocated competition in the energy sector as a means of 
lowering energy costs. 
 
Madrazo Stakes Out the Political Center 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Throughout the encounter, Madrazo laid claim to the 
political center, characterizing the right as "intolerant" 
and the left as "conflictive."  He framed his case by arguing 
that during the past five and one-half years of PAN 
government, conditions in Mexico had "reversed," with 
economic indicators dropping and indicators of insecurity 
rising.  With respect to fiscal policy, he proposed adopting 
a simplified tax system, eliminating tax loopholes, and 
improving tax collection.  He promised to create nine million 
jobs during his term, in part by providing stimuli to SME, 
and creating incentives for businesses to hire young workers. 
 Alluding to the Fox Administration's failed attempt to expel 
striking workers from a steel plant in Michoacan last week, 
he said that unlike a PAN administration, his would respect 
 
MEXICO 00002240  002 OF 003 
 
 
the autonomy of unions.  Turning to energy issues, Madrazo 
promised not to privatize Pemex.  He called for Mexico's 
energy resources to be managed according to the principle of 
"modern nationalism," although he did not specify whether 
this would permit private investment.  He strongly criticized 
Calderon's performance as Fox's Energy Secretary. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) With the possible exception of Roberto Campa, 
Madrazo was by far the most aggressive of the candidates in 
attacking his opponents.  He tended to refer to them by their 
last names, while they tended to refer to each other by first 
names.  In a pointed double entendre alluding to Calderon's 
height, Madrazo charged that Calderon "lacked the stature" to 
be President.  While his delivery was smooth, he rarely 
smiled and a number of commentators said he seemed ill at 
ease and lacked Calderon's warmth and engaging manner.  A PRI 
insider conceded to Poloff that Madrazo's "nerves had gotten 
to him" and that he ended up reading many of his remarks from 
prepared statements.  He said that despite the PRI's public 
claims of victory in the debate, Madrazo's inner circle was 
"very worried," and predicted that as Madrazo's campaign 
continued to lag, we would see further defections. 
 
Mercado Emerges with Stature Enhanced 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Alternativa candidate Patricia Mercado used the 
rare opportunity to appear before a national audience to her 
best advantage.  Mercado managed to stay above the fray 
throughout the evening, escaping criticism from her opponents 
and offering her policy prescriptions in a polished, 
measured, and self-assured manner.  She emphasized that she 
considered herself a leftist in the mold of Spain's Felipe 
Gonzalez and Chile's Michelle Bachelet.  She repeatedly 
emphasized her concern for the rights of women, the 
handicapped and other marginalized groups.  Surprisingly in 
this conservative and religious country, she argued for 
legalizing gay marriage, asserting that the issue was not one 
of morality, but rather one of rights.  Most pundits agreed 
that she emerged from the event with her stature enhanced; 
one pundit described her performance as "serene," and others 
observed that she provided a fresh presence in Mexican 
politics. 
 
Campa Excels as a Spoiler, Not as a Candidate 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶7.  (SBU)  Through much of the debate, Nueva Alianza 
candidate Roberto Campa focused on attacking Madrazo, calling 
into question his personal integrity and charging that he was 
hostile to women.  In perhaps the most charged moment of the 
debate, Campa announced that he recently had received in the 
mail an anonymous package containing documents proving that 
Madrazo had not paid income taxes in 2003-05.  He observed 
tartly that Madrazo must have had income, as he had been 
widely reported to have purchased luxury homes in Mexico City 
and Miami during that period.  Madrazo did not respond 
directly to Campa's allegations, preferring to dismiss him as 
a "puppet," an allusion to teachers' union leader Elba Esther 
Gordillo's perceived influence over the Campa campaign. 
Although Campa achieved his goal of scoring points against 
Madrazo, he was less effective in promoting his own 
candidacy; at times, he gesticulated wildly and spoke in near 
shouts. 
 
AMLO Loses in Absentia 
---------------------- 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Although AMLO opted not to participate in last 
night's debate, he inevitably remained part of the dynamic, 
with an empty lectern on the stage symbolizing his refusal to 
participate.  Although his rivals referred to him only 
infrequently during the debate -- one political analyst had 
speculated to Poloff that a Mexican audience would react 
poorly to those who criticized him in absentia -- the 
audience could not fail to take note of his absence.  Indeed, 
according to Reforma, 55% of viewers thought AMLO would lose 
votes because of his refusal to participate.  Nevertheless, 
AMLO has said he will participate in the second and final 
debate, scheduled for June 6, which could provide an 
opportunity to undo any damage incurred last night. 
 
Comment:  No Knock Outs, But A Clear Calderon Victory 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
¶9.  (SBU) In our view, and that of most pundits, Calderon 
emerged the clear winner in the debate, even if his rivals 
did not commit any fatal errors.  His victory comes just when 
his campaign was beginning to show renewed signs of life, 
with recent polls showing him having narrowed, or even 
closed, the gap with AMLO.  His victory in the debate -- and 
 
MEXICO 00002240  003 OF 003 
 
 
in the post-debate spin -- should give his campaign a fresh 
boost of momentum, and such boosts do not come often in what 
has been an uneventful campaign to date.  Moreover, Madrazo's 
loss could cement his status as an improbable third place 
contender, and encourage swing voters who strongly oppose 
AMLO to throw their allegiance to Calderon as the more likely 
alternative.  Of course, the wild card in this analysis is 
AMLO himself.  While we would not be surprised to see him 
slip into second place in post-debate polls, he has promised 
to participate in the June 6 debate and by then, his failure 
to appear last night may well be forgotten. 
 
 
Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity 
 
GARZA