VZCZCXRO5192
RR RUEHCD RUEHGD RUEHHO RUEHMC RUEHNG RUEHNL RUEHRD RUEHRS RUEHTM
DE RUEHME #2182/01 1161051
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 261051Z APR 06
FM AMEMBASSY MEXICO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0488
INFO RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
RUEHXC/ALL US CONSULATES IN MEXICO COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MEXICO 002182 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR WHA/MEX, WHA/EPSC 
STATE PASS USAID FOR LAC:MARK CARRATO 
TREASURY FOR IA MEXICO DESK: JASPER HOEK 
COMMERCE FOR ITA/MAC/NAFTA: ANDREW RUDMAN 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON EFIN EINV PGOV PINR MX
SUBJECT: PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES PREPARE FOR FIRST POLITICAL 
DEBATE 
 
 
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SUMMARY 
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¶1. (SBU) As the presidential candidates prepare for their 
first debate April 25 in Mexico City, the four partipants 
are emphasizing Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador's (PRD) refusal 
to attend, while Roberto Madrazo, Patricia Mercado and 
Roberto Campa take every opportunity to attack the current 
administration.  Adopting a populist tone, Roberto Madrazo 
(PRI) told sugar cane producers he would oblige the U.S. 
government to accept Mexican sugar surpluses.  Felipe 
Calderon (PAN) became the first candidate to explicitly 
promise to combat intellectual property piracy.  AMLO 
dismissed as ""excessive"" Calderon's characterization of 
AMLO as a significant danger for the country, even as he 
acknowledged Calderon's gains in recent polls.  Hopefully, 
we will see more substance in today's debate and not the 
persistent and shallow attacks on each other that have 
prevailed thus far in the political campaign.  End summary. 
 
---------------------- 
FIRST POLITICAL DEBATE 
---------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) With AMLO's notorious absence, which will be 
emphasized by placing an empty chair on the stage, the other 
four presidential candidates will hold their first two-hour 
political debate on April 25 at 8:30 pm.  The second and 
last debate - in which AMLO tentatively plans to participate 
-- is scheduled for June 6.  The first debate will focus on 
five main issues:  fiscal policy, energy policy, labor 
policy, poverty, and social and sustainable development. 
The Mexican business sector represented by the Business 
Coordination Council (CCE) and the Mexican Businessmen's 
Council (CMHN) called on the candidates to hold a high-level 
debate with more explicit and broader proposals than they 
have offered thus far. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
MADRAZO WILL FORCE THE U.S. TO ACCEPT MEXICAN SUGAR 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
¶3. (SBU) Desperate to gather more support after recent polls 
confirmed that he remains in last place, Madrazo resumed his 
populist speeches.  On April 20, he addressed workers of a 
sugar mill in Morelos where he promised to clean up the 
sugar mills expropriated by the Fox administration. 
Regarding the full opening of agricultural trade in 2008 
under NAFTA, Madrazo said he would "oblige" the U.S. to 
accept Mexican sugar surpluses.  Without providing further 
detail, he also promised to put a different sugar cane 
policy in place.  He said that the agricultural sector was 
in bad shape, exporting less (sugar) and importing more 
(fructose).  To make the sector more competitive, he offered 
to sugar growers (as he has repeatedly promised to other 
sectors) to reduce energy rates through an energy law for 
farmers, which he claims has thus far been blocked by the 
PAN in Congress.  Showing his "empathy and sympathy" to 
migrants' needs, Madrazo said he supported the general 
strike by Hispanic immigrants on May 1. 
 
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CALDERON'S ANTI-PIRACY PLAN 
--------------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) Felipe Calderon has been the only candidate to 
propose a coordinated action against Intellectual Property 
Rights (IPR) violations.  Speaking before the Music Authors 
and Composers Society on April 19, he promised to combat 
piracy through a zero tolerance policy.  To protect 
copyright holders, Calderon also promised to increase 
penalties for those that illegally reproduce copyrighted 
material.  According to Calderon's plan, IPR violators would 
be registered in a criminal database to better detect and 
punish them.  To combat piracy effectively, the PAN 
candidate said he would strengthen Customs, a key agency in 
detecting and deterring illegal merchandise.  Calderon's IPR 
proposal is included in his Integral Public Policies 
Program. 
 
-------------------------------------- 
AMLO SAYS HE'S NOT A DANGER FOR MEXICO 
-------------------------------------- 
 
MEXICO 00002182  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
¶5. (SBU) PAN spots comparing AMLO to Venezuela's Hugo Chavez 
and blaming the PRD candidate for increasing Mexico City's 
debt have thus far proved surprisingly successful.  In 
recent polls, AMLO's support fell in favor of Felipe 
Calderon, who is now narrowing the gap between them. 
Indeed, on April 25, Reforma published a poll showing 
Calderon leading AMLO 38% to 35%, with Madrazo trailing with 
23%.  Alleging that accusations claiming he is a danger to 
the country were unfounded, AMLO spent last week repeating 
the outline of his platform, but failed to offer anything 
new.  He asserted that he would not allow private investment 
in Pemex because what the state-run company needed was 
better management, less corruption, and the creation of a 
value-added chain.  AMLO believes that by getting rid of 
corruption in gasoline distribution and ending robberies 
from Pemex pipelines, he will obtain the needed funds (about 
MP 15 billion) to invest in exploration of new wells.  AMLO 
stressed his three priorities should he become president: 
social policy, reduction of energy rates, and the austerity 
plan.  The reactivation of the economy and the creation of 
jobs would be possible thanks to his infrastructure plans, 
which include construction of public works and housing 
programs.  About NAFTA, AMLO has said that he would call for 
a re-negotiation in order to include a clause to protect 
Mexican farmers.  AMLO's favorite slogan, "For everybody's 
welfare, poor citizens come first", captures his main 
message. 
 
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COMMENT 
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¶6. (SBU) The debate is structured with two and one-half 
minute slots for presentation of candidates' proposals on 
each of the five main issues, with each candidate also 
having one and one-half minutes for rebuttal on each issue. 
Accordingly, the format is more that of a series of public 
statements than that of a true debate, since there will be 
little opportunity for the candidates to engage each other. 
Hopefully, though, the event will give voters an opportunity 
to evaluate the candidates outside of the campaign context 
of repetitive speeches, media interviews, and radio and TV 
commercials.  The private sector expects to learn more about 
the candidates' proposals during the debate than what has 
been presented thus far.  It remains to be seen whether 
Calderon and Madrazo use the event more to attack each 
other, or to focus on their shared adversary in absentia. 
End comment. 
GARZA