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C O N F I D E N T I A L LIMA 001358 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/07/2016 
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR PE
SUBJECT: NEW VICE FOREIGN MINISTER LOBBIES AMBASSADOR FOR 
HUMALA 
 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Curt Struble. Reason 1.4(b/d). 
 
1...

id: 59852
date: 4/7/2006 22:43
refid: 06LIMA1358
origin: Embassy Lima
classification: CONFIDENTIAL
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C O N F I D E N T I A L LIMA 001358 

SIPDIS 

SIPDIS 

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/07/2016 
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR PE
SUBJECT: NEW VICE FOREIGN MINISTER LOBBIES AMBASSADOR FOR 
HUMALA 


Classified By: Ambassador Curt Struble. Reason 1.4(b/d). 

¶1.  (C) The Ambassador invited new Vice Foreign Minister 
Harold Forsyth over for a one-on-one breakfast April 7. 
Forsyth, who according to rumor has the inside track to 
become Foreign Minister if Ollanta Humala is elected 
President, quickly steered the subject to Peru,s election. 
The Vice Minister wanted to solicit the Ambassador,s views 
on USG concerns about Humala and to convey reassurance that 
an Humala government would not align Peru with Venezuela,s 
Chavez. 

¶2.  (C)  Forsyth began by recalling his unusual experience as 
a career diplomat and sometime politician.  He was among the 
protesting diplomats who were forced out of the service by 
Fujimori after the 1992 auto-coup.  In 1996, he won a 
Congressional seat with Perez de Cuellar,s UPP.  The Vice 
Minister zeroed in on one element in his biography, his role 
in co-founding the pro-democracy NGO Transparencia with 
Salomon Lerner Ghitis in 2000.  From that association, he 
said, he developed a close bond of trust with Lerner and is 
convinced that the latter would not help someone who would 
lead Peru in a radical direction.  (Comment:  Lerner is one 
of Humala,s principle advisors and a key liaison between the 
candidate and the business community.  During the 
conversation Forsyth never specifically referred to any 
conversation he has had with Humala.  While offering his own 
assessment of the candidate, he validated it at several 
points by referring to the views of Salomon Lerner rather 
than his own experience.) 

¶3.  (C)  Forsyth noted that Peru is a country with a history 
and culture unequaled elsewhere in Spanish-speaking America 
except Mexico.  That and Peru,s enduring national interests 
would, Forsyth argued, prevent it from following Venezuela,s 
foreign policy lead.  Even during the 1968-74 Velasco 
dictatorship, he said, Peru had taken care to prevent a 
rupture in its relations with Washington. 

¶4.  (C)  Forsyth observed that the Andean Community (CAN) is 
in crisis because of the increasing alignment of Bolivia with 
Venezuela.  He would be representing Peru on Monday, April 
10, at a CAN meeting of Vice Ministers to discuss problems 
posed by the fact that three members want Free Trade 
Agreements with the United States and two do not.  Bolivia 
did Venezuela,s bidding by circulating a letter before the 
scheduled March CAN-EU summit preparatory conference, 
objecting that the right conditions did not exist for such a 
meeting because of differences within the CAN on trade 
policy.  Venezuela responded by canceling the meeting with 
the EU though it had no right to do so. 

¶5.  (C)  XXXXXXXXXXXX, letting President Toledo,s signature of an FTA 
with the U.S. the following day speak for Peru.  Warming to 
his point, Forsyth said that Peru is not Bolivia; it doesn't 
have Venezuela,s oil and neither can nor wants to alienate 
the United States. 

¶6.  (C)  Forsyth asked the Ambassador what concerns the 
United States might have about an Humala government.  The 
Ambassador said that four building blocks form the foundation 
of U.S.-Peruvian relations, which are the best they have been 
since World War II.  They are: 

--a common interest in strengthening democracy; 

--cooperation against terrorism; 

--cooperation in fighting narcotics and other transnational 
crimes; 

--the commercial relationship and its association with U.S. 
efforts to reduce poverty in Peru through economic growth. 

¶7.  (C)  The Ambassador noted that Humala has said he will 
abide by the democratic rules of the game.  If he wins the 
election he will be taken at his word unless actions show 
otherwise, but his lack of a track record in government 
creates uncertainty.  Humala,s military background lends 
credibility to his pledge that Peruvian terrorists will be 
confronted, but he has not addressed the international 
dimension of the problem.  Toledo,s actions to help Colombia 
deal with the FARC have been exemplary and stand in contrast 
to the Chavez government's approach.  While Colombia is going 
to win against the FARC, there is no question that what its 
neighbors do can make the process more bloody, lengthy and 
costly. 

¶8.  (C)  In the area of narcotics, the Ambassador observed, 
Humala,s proposals are unclear and may be non-viable; for 
example, the candidate's call to ban all forced eradication. 
Colombia is determined to eradicate coca as a means of 
severing the FARC's logistical tail.  This will progressively 
drive up coca leaf prices in Peru and Bolivia.  Unless those 
governments show resolve, they will quickly see a huge 
displacement of cultivation and trafficking to their 
territory.  Finally, the candidate's proposal to force 
renegotiation of contracts will create friction with all 
foreign investors, including those from the United States. 

¶9.  (C)  Forsyth expressed gratitude for these observations. 
Rather than addressing them directly, he said that he wanted 
to share the reasons why he considers Humala the best option 
as President of Peru.  "Lourdes (Flores) is a friend of 
mine," the Vice Minister said, "but she is very ideological 
and inflexible."  These characteristics, he predicted, will 
lead the country to serious social conflict.  "Alan Garcia 
denounces Humala for being an unknown.  My problem with 
Garcia," Forsyth added, "is that he is a known quantity who 
has presided over the most disastrous administration Peru has 
seen." 

¶10.  (C)  Again citing his confidence in Lerner,s appraisal 
and judgment, the Vice Minister expressed confidence that 
Humala would prove to be a responsible President, but one who 
could make the lower classes feel included.  In that 
connection, Forsyth predicted that an Humala government would 
retain the U.S.-Peru FTA.  The Ambassador questioned that 
statement, noting that Humala had staked out a pretty firm 
position against it.  Forsyth insisted on his view, 
predicting that the Peruvian Congress will have approved the 
FTA by the time the next President is inaugurated and that 
Humala would be unwilling to rupture an agreement that has 
been implemented (sic, since implementation would not occur 
under the most optimistic scenario until January 1, 2007.) 

¶11.  (C)  COMMENT:  Forsyth sought to walk a delicate line. 
He avoided mention of his own meetings with Humala, though 
the relationship is an open secret among insiders.  All the 
same, it is a bit awkward for a sitting Vice Minister and 
career diplomat to acknowledge them directly.  Still, he was 
on a clear mission to reassure the Ambassador that Humala is 
no Chavez.  Humala has been making the same case in public, 
but his credibility is undercut by the remarkable similarity 
his plan of government holds to those pioneered by Chavez and 
Evo Morales.  It was also interesting that, notwithstanding 
his efforts to promote a return to institutional democracy 
during the Fujimori years, Forsyth expressed doubts to the 
Ambassador that Peru is capable of normal democratic 
governance.  At the beginning of their breakfast, Forsyth 
noted that the middle class is the backbone of democracy 
where it flourishes and lamented that Peru has too small a 
middle class to provide that backbone.  While he at no point 
expressed sympathy for authoritarianism, Forsyth was 
pessimistic about the near term health of democracy in his 
country.  END COMMENT. 

STRUBLE 

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