VZCZCXYZ0071
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHLC #0216/01 0951633
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 051633Z APR 06
FM AMEMBASSY LIBREVILLE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8947
INFO RUEHUJA/AMEMBASSY ABUJA PRIORITY 0344
RUEHKI/AMEMBASSY KINSHASA PRIORITY 1250
RUEHLI/AMEMBASSY LISBON PRIORITY 0631
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 0286
RUEHLU/AMEMBASSY LUANDA PRIORITY 0896
RUEHNJ/AMEMBASSY NDJAMENA PRIORITY 0371
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS PRIORITY 0778
RUEHYD/AMEMBASSY YAOUNDE PRIORITY 0615
RUFGNOA/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE PRIORITY
RHMFISS/COMUSNAVEUR NAPLES IT PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L LIBREVILLE 000216 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
KINSHASA ALSO FOR BRAZZAVILLE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/05/2016 
TAGS: PGOV PREL TP GB
SUBJECT: SAO TOME PARTIES JOCKEYING TO FORM GOVERNMENT 
 
REF: LIBREVILLE 200 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Barrie Walkley for reasons 1.4 b and d. 
 
¶1. (C) Summary: Legislative elections in Sao Tome and 
Principe (STP) gave no party a majority of seats in the 
National Assembly (an institution that has much more power 
constitutionally than the Presidency).  President de 
Menezes's MDFM party won the most seats, with 23 out of 55. 
De Menezes hopes to form a government by persuading Patrice 
Trovoada's ADI (in third place with 12 seats) either to 
support or abstain when the MDFM presents its program to the 
National Assembly.  The second biggest vote getter, Posser da 
Costa's MLSTP (19 seats), and the ADI are also negotiating to 
create a majority coalition.  Even if those two parties reach 
an agreement, however, de Menezes told Ambassador Walkley he 
interprets the constitution as allowing him to propose his 
own MDFM government -- and to call new elections if it is 
rejected by any MLSTP-ADI coalition.  Unless de Menezes wins 
Trovoada over, or changes his own mind, STP could be headed 
for more political turmoil.  End summary. 
 
¶2. (U) The results of the legislative elections held in Sao 
Tome and Principe on March 26 and on April 2 are now in, with 
President Fradique de Menezes's MDFM taking 23 seats, Prime 
Minister Maria do Carmo Silveira's MLSTP winning 19 seats, 
Patrice Trovoada's ADI garnering 12 seats and Jao Gomes's 
Novo Rumo capturing 1 seat.  As 28 seats are needed to form a 
governing majority in the 55-seat National Assembly, Patrice 
Trovoada becomes the "king-maker," currently assessing offers 
from both the MLSTP and the MDFM.  The election results will 
become official once they are certified by the Supreme Court. 
 
¶3.  (U) STP legislative elections are significant.  Unlike 
many African countries -- where there is generally a strong 
presidency and a weak legislature -- power in Sao Tome and 
Principe (STP) is vested in the National Assembly.  Under 
agreements ending a dispute in 2003, the next president's 
position will be further diminished: he/she will lose the 
right to select the minister of defense and minister of 
foreign affairs (all ministers will be selected by the prime 
minister), will not preside over cabinet meetings and will no 
longer have the authority to dismiss parliament. 
Presidential elections are anticipated in July, 2006. 
 
¶4. (C) Last week, once it became clear that no party was 
going to win a majority in parliament, the Ambassador met 
separately in Sao Tome with President de Menezes, Patrice 
Trovoada and Posser da Costa (the actual president of the 
MLSTP) to discuss the situation. De Menezes said that under 
no conditions will he enter into any coalition or 
power-sharing agreement with Posser da Costa ("other members 
of the MLSTP, perhaps, but not Posser da Costa").  His 
preferred plan is to attempt to control the legislature as a 
"relative majority" party, which requires the assistance -- 
or at least the acquiescence -- of Patrice Trovoada.  De 
Menezes thus called Gabon's President Omar Bongo, with whom 
he is on good terms, and asked Bongo to influence Trovoada's 
thinking (Patrice Trovoada was born in Libreville and grew up 
in Gabon, from where -- at the time -- his father was leading 
the struggle for STP's independence from Portugal). On March 
28, Bongo sent a plane to transport Trovoada to Libreville 
and two days later sent another one to pick up de Menezes so 
that the three could meet.  However, de Menezes and Trovoada 
returned to STP apparently without any agreement having been 
reached. 
 
¶5. (C) In a meeting that took place before the trip to 
Libreville, Patrice Trovoada told the Ambassador that he had 
hoped to win 14 seats in the elections but was satisfied to 
have taken 12. He said he is open to offers from both the 
MLSTP and the MDFM but "temperamentally" feels closer to 
Posser da Costa than to de Menezes (he was de Menezes's 
advisor on oil affairs until he was fired last year; he was 
also in an informal alliance with the MLSTP in parliament). 
Trovoada said he expected de Menezes to try everything to 
secure his support, even offering him the prime minister job. 
 However, Trovoada stressed, he is more interested in having 
his ADI campaign program accepted publicly as the program of 
the government than he is in any job or "division of the 
spoils."  Trovoada explained that he sees these elections as 
a stepping stone to the next legislative elections (in four 
years), which he hopes to win. 
 
¶6. (U) In a radio interview on April 4, Trovoada claimed to 
be no longer in negotiations with de Menezes because of "a 
lack of flexibility" on the part of the MDFM.  He said that 
the MDFM has drafted a government program which the ADI 
cannot support. He made no mention of the MLSTP in his 
interview. 
 
¶7. (C) Posser da Costa, when the Ambassador met him the day 
after the elections, was exhausted.  (Although Maria do Carmo 
Silveira is the Prime Minister in the about-to-depart MLSTP 
government, Posser da Costa is the president of the MLSTP; it 
is expected that Silveira will now return to her old job as 
head of the Central Bank).  Da Costa attributed the MLSTP's 
election loss to a lack of financial support from traditional 
supporters China and Angola, which dramatically limited MLSTP 
campaign capabilities, while, he claimed, Taiwan and Nigeria 
were pouring money into MDFM coffers and Patrice Trovoada was 
receiving big money from Nigerian oil interests.  "Everyone 
thought we were loaded, but we had no money," Da Costa said, 
adding that Beijing gave the MLSTP only $40,000, "peanuts 
compared to what Taiwan was handing out to de Menezes and the 
MDFM."  Da Costa revealed that he and other top MDFM leaders 
had been forced to mortgage their houses to finance the 
campaign.  (Note: Lots of foreign exchange arrived in the 
country during the campaign; IMF figures indicate that 
inflation rose by at least 6% during the month.  End Note.) 
 
¶8. (C) Posser da Costa said that the MLSTP will accept the 
election results and that he plans to call a party congress 
in the next month or so to elect a new leadership.  He 
continues to seek ways to establish a coalition government 
with Patrice Trovoada's ADI and would like to be the next 
Prime Minister (a development which would be strenuously 
opposed by de Menezes). If that coalition is not possible, 
the MLSTP will serve as a "responsible but aggressive" 
opposition party. 
 
¶9. (C)  Meanwhile, President de Menezes is behaving as if his 
MDFM party has the right to form a government on the basis of 
its plurality. He has established a government plan and is 
getting ready to name a Prime Minister and cabinet.  Assuming 
he carries out this intention, the test will come once the 
new parliament is in session.  The MDFM government will 
deliver its plan to parliament (the plan is essentially the 
government's roadmap for the next four years); if a majority 
of the 55 members accepts the plan, then the government is in 
place. 
 
¶10. (C) The key questions are: How will de Menezes and the 
MDFM secure at least 28 votes when the party has only 23 
seats; and What will be the result if the program does not 
win approval by a majority of legislators?  The answers to 
these questions depend, in part, on an interpretation of the 
constitution.  The constitution, for example, is unclear what 
will happen if there is no absolute majority in favor of the 
program, due to abstentions, but the plan is not rejected (in 
other words, if 23 vote for, 20 against and 12 abstain; there 
will be no majority but there will be more votes for than 
against).  The government might be able to muddle along (if 
it does not suffer a "no confidence" motion).  If, however, 
the ADI joins the MLSTP in a coalition and votes against the 
MDFM plan in the Assembly, the MDFM government will fall. 
What happens next is unclear, although President de Menezes 
appears to think he could call for new elections, blaming the 
ADI and MLSTP for the problem.  Such an action would almost 
certainly provoke constitutional challenges and assure 
political turmoil until after the Presidential election in 
July. 
 
¶11. (U) Relevant portions of the STP constitution, informally 
translated, include: 
 
Article 110: The Prime Minister shall be appointed by the 
President of the Republic after taking into account the 
opinion of the parties represented in the National Assembly 
and with due regard for the results of the general election. 
 
Article 116: The Government's Program will be submitted for 
the approval of the National Assembly...within thirty days 
after appointment. 
 
Article 117: The dismissal of the government occurs when: 
..... 
d) Its program is rejected; 
e) A motion of confidence is not passed; 
... 
 
Article 103: 
... 
2) The National Assembly cannot be dissolved in the first 
twelve months after its elections, in the last six months of 
the President's mandate, or during a state of siege or a 
state of emergency. 
 
 
 
WALKLEY