VZCZCXRO8379
PP RUEHAG RUEHDF RUEHIK RUEHLZ
DE RUEHLP #0985/01 1001736
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 101736Z APR 06
FM AMEMBASSY LA PAZ
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8826
INFO RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE
RUEHAC/AMEMBASSY ASUNCION 5765
RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA 3048
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 6918
RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES 4154
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 1462
RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA 1414
RUEHMN/AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO 3721
RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 8643
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 0247

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 LA PAZ 000985 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON SOCI PHUM EAID BL
SUBJECT: CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY: LISTS OUT; GOVERNMENT SEEKS 
DONOR SUPPORT 
 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary: The list of candidates for the Constituent 
Assembly, publicly released on April 4, suggests an 
opposition increasingly fragmented and in disarray.  While 
this should boost the MAS's hope to dominate the assembly, 
the ruling party has problems of its own.  These stem from 
social sector groups that feel betrayed for having been left 
off of the MAS's lists, and that may retaliate with street 
protests or even by taking their votes elsewhere.  In an 
April 6 meeting with donors, VP Alvaro Garcia Linera said the 
Constituent Assembly was the government's highest priority -- 
designed solely to strengthen and expand Bolivia's democracy 
-- but acknowledged that the process would depend on 
international funding.  End Summary. 
 
Lists Out: Fragmentation and Frustration 
---------------------------------------- 
2  (SBU) The list of candidates seeking election as 
representatives to the Constituent Assembly was publicly 
released on April 4.  A cursory review of the more than 2,000 
names vying for the 255 available assembly slots suggests 
increasing atomization and disarray among the so-called 
opposition.  While we had heard that quiet planning was 
underway to coordinate the efforts of disparate groups -- 
Podemos, UN, MNR, MIR, ADN, and a number of citizens 
organizations -- so as to avoid a further fragmentation of 
non-MAS support, this effort appears to have come to naught. 
In many constituencies one MAS or MAS-leaning candidate is 
lined up against numerous "opposition" candidates.  Moreover, 
several opposition groups, such as Podemos and MNR, appear to 
have split into more than one piece.  Observers believe this 
failure to join forces will significantly strengthen the 
MAS's already strong hand. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Notwithstanding its numerous advantages, including 
possession of the executive bully pulpit, access to 
government funds and the Venezuela-run national campaign to 
provide voting documents to rural Bolivians (most of whom 
will presumably be MAS voters), the ruling party has problems 
of its own.  These stem from the absence of representatives 
from key indigenous and social sector organizations on the 
MAS's electoral lists.  For example, the executive secretary 
of the regional Labor Central of El Alto (COR), Edgar Patana, 
found his name nowhere on the list, contrary to promises made 
to him by the MAS.  A number of these groups have accused the 
MAS of behaving like a traditional political party in using 
the people as a "stepladder" and then leaving them behind. 
Over the April 8-9 weekend, many met to discuss possible 
retaliation, which reportedly could include initiating street 
protests or even taking their support to the MAS's rivals. 
 
Dependent on Donor Support 
-------------------------- 
¶4.  (SBU) In an April 6 meeting with representatives of the 
international donor community, including the UNDP and a range 
of European Embassy and aid missions, Vice President Alvaro 
Garcia Linera emphasized that the Constituent Assembly was 
the government's highest priority.  He said it would be 
designed solely to strengthen and expand Bolivia's democracy 
-- urging those present to bring to his attention any 
evidence of anti-democratic abuses -- and underscored the 
important "symbolic and ritual" function of allowing 
Bolivians from all sectors to participate and feel ownership 
in the result.  He also noted that the end result would be a 
constitution that was only 20-30% changed from the current 
one.  (Comment: Garcia has suggested to us privately that 
only 10% of the current Constitution would be altered. 
President Morales, in a subsequent gathering of core 
supporters in Cochabamba, claimed it would be more like 80%, 
and entail "re-founding" Bolivia.  Whatever the number and 
real intention, Garcia Linera was playing his appointed role 
- that of soothing the concerns of the international 
community regarding the government's autocratic proclivities 
- with predictable polish and eloquence.  End Comment.) 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Garcia said the Government's efforts to support the 
assembly, which include setting up a national Constituent 
Assembly and Autonomy Referendum office in Santa Cruz, would 
depend entirely on donor support.  (In a similar meeting with 
donors a month earlier, Garcia Linera said the government 
would carry out its program with or without international 
support.)  According to the government's draft proposal to 
 
LA PAZ 00000985  002 OF 002 
 
 
donors, this three-phased effort will cost just over USD 10 
million.  The government has reportedly already received 
commitments of USD 1 million from the UNDP, the World Bank 
and Japan for Phase 1.  Several donor representatives 
questioned why the GOB was depending entirely on 
international support for a process allegedly so important to 
Bolivia itself. 
GREENLEE