VZCZCXYZ0011
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHIL #5537/01 0930607
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
P 030607Z APR 06
FM AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4058

S E C R E T ISLAMABAD 005537 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
H FOR BFLECK 
H - PLEASE PASS TO HAGEL STAFFER REXON RYU 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/28/2016 
TAGS: EAID MASS MOPS OVIP PGOV PK PREL PTER
SUBJECT: POLITICAL SCENESETTER FOR SENATOR HAGEL 
 
REF: SECSTATE 47580 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Ryan C. Crocker, Reasons 1.4 
 
¶1. (S) The U.S. Mission in Pakistan warmly welcomes your 
planned April 12-15 visit to Pakistan.  As demonstrated 
during President Bush's recent visit to Islamabad, both 
President Pervez Musharraf and Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz 
are western-oriented modernizers who are trying to move 
Pakistan toward Musharraf's goal of "enlightened moderation." 
They viewed the President's visit as a landmark in the 
relationship and were gratified that he decided to stay 
overnight in Pakistan.  Your visit comes as Pakistan's 
leaders have survived the fallout from the Danish cartoon 
controversy, but remain engaged in suppressing violent 
separatists in Balochistan, combating al-Qa'ida and 
extremists in the tribal areas along the Afghan border and 
transitioning from earthquake relief operations to long-term 
reconstruction.  Robust USG participation in the earthquake 
relief effort has promoted a more positive public perception 
of the United States, but Pakistan remains a tough public 
diplomacy environment.  We believe that your visit will help 
us advance key U.S. objectives, including democratization, 
regional stability and progress in the global war on terror. 
 
The Cartoon Controversy 
----------------------- 
¶2. (C) In February and early March, tens of thousands of 
Pakistani demonstrators took to the streets to protest the 
publication of the Danish cartoons.  Early rallies in Lahore 
and Peshawar were particularly destructive, with rampant 
looting and vandalism in parts of downtown Lahore and 
Peshawar and six protesters killed.  Although demonstrations 
followed throughout Pakistan (including a widely-observed 
nationwide strike on the day of President Bush's arrival), 
enhanced security measures by the Government of Pakistan 
(GOP)prevented any repetition of the unrestrained violence 
seen in February. Over time, the protests took on a greater 
political tone.  The outrage against the Danes and the EU 
still festers, fueled by opportunistic politicians who have 
subverted public sentiment in order to condemn the West as a 
whole (including the U.S.) and embarrass the Musharraf 
government. 
 
¶3.  (C) Following President Bush's lead, your visit presents 
an opportunity to remind the Pakistani people that the United 
States understands the sentiments of the Muslim community and 
that, although we strongly support freedom of expression, we 
also believe the press should behave responsibly.  More 
broadly, you will have the opportunity to underscore our 
desire for warm relations with the Muslim world and for a 
sustained partnership with Pakistan as it addresses the 
immediate challenge of earthquake recovery and the long-term 
challenges of economic development. 
 
Earthquake Relief 
----------------- 
¶4. (U) The October 8 earthquake (7.6 on the Richter scale) in 
Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) and the North West Frontier 
Province (NWFP) was the strongest to hit the region in over a 
century.  The GOP estimates that more than 73,000 individuals 
died in the quake, with more than 69,000 wounded and some 2.8 
million survivors left homeless.  The United States has been 
Pakistan's most visible international partner in delivering 
emergency relief over the last two months. 
 
¶5.  (U) The U.S. military, which has been on the ground since 
October 10, will conclude its relief operations on March 31. 
At the peak of initial relief efforts, more than 1,200 
personnel and 24 helicopters provided vital transport, 
logistics and medical and engineering support in affected 
areas.  AS we have wrapped up our military relief operations, 
we have donated more than USD 2.5 million in medical 
equipment to Pakistani counterparts to ensure that they had 
the resources necessary to meet the medical needs of the 
affected community.  Our Seabee unit left behind 25 pieces of 
heavy construction equipment as a donation to Pakistani 
military engineers. 
 
¶6.  (U) The U.S. military and USAID collaborated closely on 
the civilian relief effort, with the military providing 
logistics and USAID working with NGOs to deliver supplies and 
services in camps and villages.  USAID has provided more than 
USD 60 million in additional humanitarian assistance through 
NGOs and the United Nations, including blankets, tents, 
plastic sheeting and shelter kits to help the affected 
population make it through the harsh Himalayan winter.  In 
March, USAID made its first reconstruction grant of USD 15 
million to rebuild  schools and hospitals.  In total, the USG 
has pledged USD 510 million for earthquake relief and 
reconstruction efforts.  The U.S. private sector is also 
engaged.  A consortium of CEOs (GE, Pfizer, Citigroup, Xerox 
and UPS) is spearheading the South Asia Earthquake Relief 
Fund, which has already attracted approximately USD 24 
million.  Independent estimates place total U.S. private 
donations at over USD 130 million. 
 
¶7.  (C) Our prompt and generous response has initiated a 
small but perceptible shift in Pakistani attitudes about the 
United States, improving bilateral relations at official 
levels.  The hand-in-glove cooperation between U.S. and 
Pakistani military personnel has palpably reduced suspicions 
at the middle and upper ranks of the Pakistani army. As we 
have drawn down our military presence, we have emphasized 
that our transition parallels the overall shift from 
emergency relief toward the civilian reconstruction phase of 
the recovery effort. Pakistanis, who have long been convinced 
that we are fair-weather friends, are beginning to understand 
that we are interested in a long-term relationship. 
 
Democratization 
--------------- 
¶8.  (C) President Musharraf has committed - publicly and 
privately - to move Pakistan toward a civilian-led democracy 
by the next national elections, which must be held by 2007. 
U.S. visitors should remind their Pakistani interlocutors 
(particularly those in the military) of the importance our 
elected leaders - including President Bush and members of 
Congress - attach to this transition.  The government must 
address significant organizational issues before the 2007 
national elections, but it has taken an important initial 
step with the March appointment of a permanent, independent 
election commissioner acceptable to all mainstream parties. 
When engaging Pakistani contacts, U.S. officials should 
reinforce the need for civilian control of the military and 
for the military's full and permanent disengagement from 
electoral politics.  At the operational level, USAID supports 
democratization efforts with programs to promote 
institutional development of the courts, the legislatures, 
and the political parties. 
 
Afghanistan 
----------- 
¶9.  (S) The roller-coaster relationship between Afghanistan 
and Pakistan continues to suffer from mutual suspicion and 
recrimination, with Afghans concerned about cross-border 
infiltration and Pakistan worried that India is using its 
assets in Afghanistan to destabilize Balochistan.  President 
Musharraf, his government and military leaders recognize that 
Pakistan must support the Karzai government as it attempts to 
solidify its control over the country.  To that end, the 
Government is committed to cooperating on operational 
security matters with the Afghan government and coalition 
forces through regular Tripartite Commission meetings.  That 
said, the two leaders cannot restrain themselves from 
engaging in regular bouts of destructive public rhetoric in 
which each blames the other for not doing enough to 
effectively prosecute the battle against their common enemies 
in the tribal areas along the border. 
 
¶10.  (S) As illustrated by the recent heavy fighting in North 
and South Waziristan, Pakistan is struggling to curb 
insurgent activity, challenged by rugged terrain, Pakistan 
border security forces' limited resources and sometimes 
uneven support within the Pakistani military,  Inter-Services 
Intelligence (ISI) and the Frontier Corps.  The greatest 
hurdle is the Government's lack of a coherent strategy in the 
Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) along the Afghan 
border.  We consistently press the GOP to move forcefully 
against al-Qaida, Taliban and other anti-coalition militants, 
while simultaneously acknowledging the significant progress 
Pakistan has made in countering terrorist elements since 
September 2001.  The recent military operations initiated in 
North Waziristan by Pakistan's Special Services Group, 
supported by Pakistan Army Aviation and 11th Corps assets, 
marks a new level of commitment commensurate with America 
expectations. 
 
India and Kashmir 
----------------- 
¶11.  (S) President Musharraf and his senior advisors have 
consistently told us that they have made a strategic decision 
to end the militancy and even Indian officials acknowledge 
that the level of violence and cross-border infiltration has 
declined (though New Delhi attributes this to Indian security 
measures).  President Musharraf believes the GOP's ability to 
control Kashmiri militants will be greatly enhanced if there 
is measurable progress with India on Kashmir.  He has 
specifically pushed for a withdrawal of Indian forces from 
key population centers in Indian-administered Kashmir (a 
demand viewed with great skepticism in Delhi).  Musharraf has 
privately signaled flexibility on final status of Kashmir, 
but in public remains steadfast in rejecting the Line of 
Control (LOC) as a permanent international boundary.  Indian 
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has said that New Delhi is not 
afraid to discuss pragmatic solutions to make the LOC 
less-relevant in people's lives, but has also chided Pakistan 
for holding normalization of bilateral relations hostage to a 
final resolution of the Kashmir dispute.  Limited measures 
following the October earthquake to facilitate cross-LOC 
travel and communication have the potential to changes the 
dynamic in Kashmir and may accelerate internal pressure on 
Islamabad and New Delhi to create additional space for 
interaction between Kashmiris in India and Pakistan. 
 
¶12. (C)  While there has been little progress on core issues 
relating to Kashmir, senior Indian and Pakistani officials 
meet regularly through the Composite Dialogue process, which 
has produced some confidence-building measures, including a 
pre-notification agreement for  ballistic missile launches 
and the opening of five bus routes between the two countries. 
 India and Pakistan have also after some 17 years revived the 
Joint Commission after some twenty years, to provide a forum 
for discussions on technical issues such as science and 
technology, information technology, telecommunications, and 
tourism.  The Pakistani Federal Investigation Agency and the 
Indian Central Bureau of Investigation recently initiated 
discussions aimed at promoting cross-border cooperation on 
human trafficking, currency counterfeiting, and illegal 
immigration. 
 
¶13.  (S) India has long resisted the involvement of third 
parties in settling the Kashmir issue, and Pakistani leaders 
understand that any move toward a direct mediating role by 
the U.S. would be counterproductive.  President Musharraf was 
pleased by President Bush's even-handed statements about the 
need for good relations between India and Pakistan and for a 
peaceful and mutually agreeable solution in Kashmir. 
 
Global War on Terrorism 
----------------------- 
¶14.  (S) Pakistan deserves commendation for standing with us 
in the global war on terror, including its efforts to deny 
al-Qaida and other extremist elements safe haven in 
Pakistan's untamed tribal areas along the Afghan border. 
Following the GOP's decision to extend central government 
control into the FATA (historically a "no go" region for 
government forces), we have regularly encouraged Pakistani 
security forces to stay the course in the face of 
armed resistance.  The Pakistan military has suffered over 
1000 casualties in the FATA, with particularly heavy fighting 
during the first week of March, when militants occupied a key 
town in North Waziristan.  Since December, the security 
situation, especially in Waziristan, has deteriorated, 
forcing the GOP to rethink its strategy. Musharraf has 
articulated a three-pronged approach comprising political 
initiatives, economic development and military operations 
that are faster, leaner and more targeted than in the past. 
We have offered to assist Pakistan's economic development 
efforts in the FATA and to provide training and rapid strike 
capabilities as it realigns its military tactics. 
 
¶15.  (C) In the aftermath of the July 7 London bombings, 
President Musharraf cracked down on terrorist/extremist 
organizations in Pakistan to much public fanfare.  We are 
still assessing whether the President has the will to hold 
the line against Pakistan's extremist elements for the long 
run.  Initial law enforcement actions targeted the usual 
suspects--conservative clerics and Islamist 
politicians--prompting a strong popular backlash, with 
conservatives decrying the focus on Islamists.  Ultimately, 
the government released most detainees and watered down 
regulations intended to provide transparency on madrassa 
operations.  We have repeatedly pressed senior GOP officials 
to act decisively against the operational leaders of key 
terrorist and extremist groups, including those involved in 
earthquake relief efforts in northern Pakistan.  We have also 
encouraged GOP officials to take action against madrassas 
that support, recruit for or shelter these organizations. 
 
Balochistan 
----------- 
¶16.  (S) Pakistani leaders are also struggling to cope with 
an insurgency in the resource-rich province of Balochistan, 
as local Baloch tribesmen seek to redress historic grievances 
against Pakistan and seize a greater share of their 
provincial patrimony.  President Musharraf has swung back and 
forth between civilian advisors who are counseling caution 
and a negotiated settlement that addresses Baloch concerns, 
and military advisors who view the insurgency as an 
Indian-sponsored threat to national unity to be suppressed. 
At the moment, the pendulum appears ready to swing toward the 
military option. This has clear implications for the 
military's ability to pursue shared U.S.-Pakistan objectives 
in the FATA and in the war on terror.  Pakistani security 
forces are already over-stretched along the Afghan border, in 
North and South Waziristan, in earthquake relief and in 
managing domestic unrest over the cartoons.  An escalation in 
armed conflict in Balochistan would create an inauspicious 
political environment in the run-up to national elections 
next year. 
CROCKER