VZCZCXRO3284
RR RUEHCHI RUEHCN RUEHDT RUEHGH RUEHHM RUEHNH
DE RUEHGZ #1674/01 1040750
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 140750Z APR 06
FM AMCONSUL GUANGZHOU
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5048
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 3913
RUEHOO/CHINA POSTS COLLECTIVE
RUCNASE/ASEAN MEMBER COLLECTIVE
RUEKJCS/DIA WASHDC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RUEHRC/DEPT OF AGRICULTURE WASHINGTON DC
RUEAHLC/HOMELAND SECURITY CENTER WASHINGTON DC
RUEAUSA/DEPT OF HHS WASHDC
RUEHPH/CDC ATLANTA GA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 GUANGZHOU 011674 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR CA/OCS/ACS ATTN: ELIZABETH RYAN 
STATE PASS TO NIH 
USDOC FOR 4420/ITA/MAC/MCQUEEN, CELICO, DAS LEVINE 
STATE FOR USTR 
USPACOM FOR FPA 
USPACOM ATTN: MAJOR PBREED 
 
E.O. 12958 
TAGS: TBIO KFLU CACS AMED ASEC ECON CH
SUBJECT:  The Long March to Avian Influenza Preparedness in 
South China 
 
REF: A) GUANGZHOU 3688, B) GUANGZHOU 4395, C) GUANGZHOU 
 
6175, D) GUANGZHOU 6294, E) GUANGZHOU 6984, F) GUANGZHOU 
8517, G) GUANGZHOU 9084 
 
(U) THIS DOCUMENT IS SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED.  PLEASE 
PROTECT ACCORDINGLY.  NOT FOR RELEASE OUTSIDE U.S. 
GOVERNMENT CHANNELS.  NOT FOR INTERNET PUBLICATION. 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary:  Professional polls and Post's informal 
surveys show that only about half of American businesses in 
South China are actively planning for an Avian Influenza 
(AI) outbreak despite scientific reports that AI among birds 
is endemic in Guangdong, with concomitant higher risks of 
human-to-human transmission breaking out in this area.  Many 
private American citizens also believe, however, that the 
U.S. Government will provide transport out of China and 
provide antiviral medicine if human-to-human transmission 
occurs and pandemic conditions emerge.  Post's active 
outreach stresses that while the USG is committed to doing 
all it can to protect American citizens abroad, it would be 
prudent for them to prepare for a possible situation in 
which USG and/or other governments' resources are not 
available.  End Summary. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Post's outreach effort continues to provide 
information and tips on planning for a potential Avian 
Influenza (AI) outbreak.  Since December 1, 2005, Consulate 
staff members have presented AI information to American 
citizens and corporate representatives at American Citizen 
Service outreach meetings, OSAC meetings and American 
Chamber of Commerce receptions and events.  The audiences 
have varied in size.  Since the inception of Post's AI 
Working Group last December, Post has conducted more than 20 
such meetings.  In an effort to maximize the impact of the 
Department's message, we will conduct a town hall meeting 
next month at the largest American School in Guangzhou for 
all Americans resident in the area. 
 
Still at Ground Zero 
-------------------- 
¶3.  (U) While the spread of AI to other continents in the 
last three months has been the focus of the media's 
attention, report's on AI's epidemiological history indicate 
that southern China remains a potent source.  A February 
scientific report completed by researchers from institutions 
in China, Hong Kong, Vietnam and Indonesia, noted that 
"genetic analysis of H5N1 avian flu viruses collected from 
wild and domestic birds in China suggests the virus has 
spread in uncontrolled fashion in southern China for the 
past decade, igniting outbreaks in Vietnam on at least three 
occasions and triggering spread of the worrisome virus 
across Russia to eastern Europe."  They conclude that the 
virus remains endemic in southern China and that most viral 
mutations will come from this source. 
 
¶4.  (U) The same report, argues that the only way to 
minimize the damage done by the virus and reduce the risk it 
poses to human health is by addressing the problem at the 
virus's birthplace, in the poultry flocks of southern China. 
Another report states that the prevalence of human co- 
habitation with flocks of domestic birds, large breeding 
populations of hogs and birds on the same farm and the 
limited distance between farming villages and cities makes 
Asia a likely place for the first appearance of a virulent 
form of AI. 
 
Message Clearly Heard - Half Understood? 
---------------------------------------- 
¶5.  (U) Professional pollsters and our own informal surveys 
continue to show that while the level of AI awareness among 
Americans in southern China is higher than before, only 
about one-half of American companies and resident citizens 
are prepared or are preparing to face a pandemic event 
(Reftel A).  These polls show that while more businesses are 
 
GUANGZHOU 00011674  002 OF 002 
 
 
beginning to plan for an AI pandemic, only about 50 percent 
have actually drafted a plan to meet the challenge.  Post 
conducted an informal survey of senior managers and 
corporate treasurers at a recent event hosted by the 
American Chamber of Commerce (AMCHAM).  While this survey 
included only 13 senior managers (one response per company 
with American expatriate staff), the results were in line 
with the larger Hewlett poll, but significantly more 
revealing on expectations regarding the U.S. Government 
response to a pandemic. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Reflecting the Hewlett poll, 54 percent of the 
American companies in Post's survey replied that they have a 
written AI plan.  A smaller number, 46 percent have advised 
staff to store food and water, while 69 percent said they 
expect the Consulate to remain open during a pandemic.  For 
these corporate respondents, 31 percent said that they 
expected the U.S. Government to assist with the relocation 
of personnel in a pandemic. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Over a period of two weeks, Post provided the same 
survey questions to resident Americans visiting the 
Consulate's American Citizen Services Office.  57 percent 
have begun to store food and water.  28 percent said they 
expect the US Government to provide assistance to relocate 
in the event of a pandemic.  Americans also commented that 
they expect the U.S. Government to provide food and 
medicines (one specified Tamiflu) in the event of a 
pandemic. 
 
It's (Mostly) Good News and Bad News 
------------------------------------ 
¶8.  (SBU) Surveys show that the American community in South 
China is engaged on the topic of AI.  Large American 
employers are planning for a potential pandemic in 
increasing numbers.  Post will continue its active outreach 
effort to better educate the public on sources of credible 
information to assist in their AI planning.  We will 
continue to note that the Consulate regards the safety of 
American citizens abroad in its consular district as its 
highest priority and that in a pandemic situation it will 
utilize and seek as many USG and other resources as 
possible.  At the same time, however, the Consulate will 
continue to stress self-reliance and frankly report the 
limited assistance that might be available from the U.S. 
Government in the event of a pandemic. 
 
Dong