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DE RUEHGE #0371/01 1141526
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 241526Z APR 06
FM AMEMBASSY GEORGETOWN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3406
INFO RUCNCOM/EC CARICOM COLLECTIVE
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 0951
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 0287
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 0114
RUEHT/AMEMBASY OTTAWA 2142
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS
RCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 0043
RUMIAAA/HQ USSUTHCOM J2 MIAMI FL

C O N F I D E N T I A L GEORGETOWN 000371 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
 
 
 
SIPDIS 
 
WHA/AR 
WHA/OAS 
S/CRS 
SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/23/2016 
TAGS: PGOV PINS KDM OAS GY
SUBJECT: GUYANA ELECTION DELAYED, PROESS IN DISARRAY: 
PREVIEW #7 
 
REF: A. GEORGETOW 344 
     ¶B. GEORGETOWN 328 
     ¶C. GEORGETOWN 08 
     ¶D. GEORGETOWN 181 
 
Classified By: Ambasador Roland W. Bullen 
For reason 1.4 (d) 
 
¶1. U) SUMMARY.  The Guyana Elections Commission (GECO) says 
it cannot deliver elections by the Auust 4 constitutional 
due date and will not be ready before August 30.  This raises 
thorny constitutional questions about Guyana's governance 
after August 4.  GECOM has also failed to set a new election 
date, which leaves the process in limbo.  Making matters 
worse, the three opposition election commissioners have 
"withdrawn" from GECOM, further disrupting the process. 
President Bharrat Jagdeo and opposition leader Robert Corbin 
met April 19 - an encouraging sign - but did not achieve a 
breakthrough.  As it currently stands, if key compromises are 
not reached by May 4 when Parliament dissolves, Guyana will 
be left with neither a legislature nor an election date.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
It's Official: No Elections by Constitutional Deadline 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) GECOM decided April 12 that it cannot meet the 
August 4 constitutional deadline for elections and, 
furthermore, cannot deliver elections before August 30. 
However, GECOM stopped short of declaring a new election 
date, leaving the election timeline in disarray.  In the 
absence of official word, several rumors are circulating 
Georgetown about when elections might be held.  The 
donor-funded Joint International Technical Assessor (JITA) 
who monitors GECOM's activities told PolOff that GECOM is 
capable of delivering elections by August 31 and that any 
failure to do so will only be the result of "deliberate 
sabotage" by political forces who do not want elections to 
take place. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
Sulking Opposition Commissioners Withdraw from GECOM 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) The three opposition-nominated GECOM commissioners 
announced April 15 that they had "withdrawn" - but did not 
resign - from GECOM.  (Note: Actually resigning would entail 
financial hardships such as having to retroactively pay duty 
on their imported duty-free personal vehicles.)  They cited 
GECOM Chairman Steve Surujbally's misleading and 
non-transparent management style as the reason why they could 
no longer work with him.  The commissioners have made their 
point, storming away from the table but preserving the option 
to return. 
 
¶4. (SBU) The commissioners and GECOM staff have often 
expressed their frustration with Surujbally in the past five 
years.  But the real impetus for their action now is that 
Surujbally voted with the PPP-nominated commissioners to 
proceed with printing of the Preliminary List of Electors, a 
step the opposition opposes.  Casting the tie-breaking (4 to 
3) vote was unprecedented and it paves the way for the Claims 
and Objections exercise to begin May 2.  Proceeding with 
Claims and Objections now is critical if elections are to be 
held without additional delay. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Where does this leave the elections process?  The 
absence of opposition commissioners might make it easier for 
GECOM to make urgently needed decisions - the constitution 
allows the remaining three commissioners and the Chairman to 
form a quorum.  But this would give the opposition parties a 
very convenient excuse for disowning and discrediting the 
election process at a later date.  Corbin made this perfectly 
clear in declaring that "the elections commission is treading 
on dangerous ground" if it plans to make decisions about 
elections without the opposition commissioners. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
Jagdeo, Corbin Meet: A First Step Towards Dialogue 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
¶6. (SBU) President Jagdeo met with opposition leader Robert 
Corbin April 19, a step that post and other donors have been 
urging for months.  The upshot was an agreement to establish 
a four-person team to assess the constitutional implications 
of the now inevitable delay of elections beyond their August 
4 due date.  This team will be comprised of two from each 
side - reported to be Attorney-General Doodnauth Singh and 
Speaker of Parliament Ralph Ramkarran on one side, with PNC/R 
Chairman Winston Murray and senior counsel Rex McKay on the 
other.  Ramkarran and Murray command some respect as 
independent-minded politicians, but it is difficult to 
foresee how a structure that pits the two parties evenly 
against each other will bring any resolution to the extremely 
contentious constitutional questions at play. 
 
¶7. (SBU) The Jagdeo-Corbin meeting, although a useful first 
step in reestablishing dialogue, does not mean that 
compromise is in the offing.  The opposition PNC/R's weekly 
statement April 20 flatly sets out its position - Jagdeo and 
his cabinet cannot hold office after August 4 without a 
constitutional amendment requiring a two-thirds majority vote 
in the National Assembly.  This further supports post's view 
that the opposition's strategy remains the same - to trade 
its support for a constitutional amendment in exchange for 
full house-to-house verification as a concession. 
 
¶8. (SBU) Baroness Amos, leader of the UK House of Lords and 
Tony Blair confidante, will visit her native Guyana the 
weekend of April 29-30 following the UK-CARICOM summit in 
Barbados.  She plans to use the occasion to talk some sense 
into Guyana's political leaders - and not a moment too soon 
as the Parliament dissolves May 4, at which time Guyana will 
have neither a legislature nor an election date. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
Continued Veiled Threats by Opposition Troublesome 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
¶9. (C) The PNC/R also launched another personal broadside 
against Surujbally in its April 20 statement, accusing him of 
"pursuing a dangerous program of deception".  In the wake of 
the April 22 assassination of GoG cabinet-member Satyadeow 
Sawh (septel), this type of rhetoric is no laughing matter. 
Surujbally, who has been the focus of verbal attacks by 
opposition politicians for months, recently confided to 
Ambassador that he considers himself a "dead man walking". 
 
¶10. (C) The PNC/R leaders have made a habit of peppering 
their public statements with references to the chaos and 
violence that will ensue if election preparations continue on 
their current path.  Of course, they point to other 
uncontrollable, unnamed elements as the sources of such 
unrest.  Post believes these veiled threats are irresponsible 
and inflammatory, giving succor to those who want to disrupt 
the election process.  Post will devise and seek Department 
concurrence on tactics to be used against political parties 
that directly or indirectly promote election-related violence. 
 
-------- 
Comment 
-------- 
 
¶11. (SBU) Guyanese bristle at comparisons between their 
country and Haiti.  Yet, as one letter-writer put it recently 
in the Stabroek News, Guyana "is suffering from gross 
managerial incompetence" if after five years and US$15 
million, GECOM cannot deliver an election for less than 
500,000 voters on time.  Recent events underscore GECOM's 
fundamentally flawed structure where the politically 
appointed commissioners are put in straightjackets by their 
political masters. 
 
¶12. (SBU)  Comment continued.  GECOM made a critical mistake 
when it failed to set a new election date when announcing 
August 4 was no longer achievable.  We are now in a state of 
limbo.  GECOM staff are moving ahead with preparations for an 
 
August 31 poll date.  But as far as the opposition parties 
are concerned, nothing can happen until a full house-to-house 
verification exercise is agreed to and a deal is struck on 
post May 4 governance.  And so with each passing week that 
these fundamental issues go unresolved, Guyana heads closer 
to a Haiti-like scenario of election delays.  End comment. 
BULLEN