VZCZCXRO2629
RR RUEHFK RUEHKSO RUEHNAG RUEHNH
DE RUEHFK #0023/01 0950857
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 050857Z APR 06
FM AMCONSUL FUKUOKA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0180
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 0186
INFO RUEHKSO/AMCONSUL SAPPORO 0077
RUEHNAG/AMCONSUL NAGOYA 0076
RUEHOK/AMCONSUL OSAKA KOBE 0085
RUEHNH/AMCONSUL NAHA 0081
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC
RUEHFK/AMCONSUL FUKUOKA 0198

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 FUKUOKA 000023 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS TO USTR 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON EIND EINV PGOV SOCI JA
SUBJECT: STUDY SAYS GOJ AMENDMENTS TO URBAN PLANNING LAWS ARE THE 
WRONG MEDICINE FOR KYUSHU CITIES 
 
 
Sensitive But Unclassified -- please protect accordingly. 
 
SUMMARY 
 
¶1. (SBU) A recent report by the Kyushu Economic Research Center 
(KERC) argues that the Government of Japan's (GOJ) proposed 
amendments to two of the three Urban Planning Laws ("Machizukuri 
Sanpo") will actually do little to revitalize urban centers in 
the Kyushu/Yamaguchi region.  The GOJ proposals are intended to 
restrict large retail stores in suburbs and concentrate more 
such business in declining urban cores.  However, the KERC 
report notes that problems facing Japanese city centers go 
beyond suburban growth to include population decline, decreasing 
office demand, changing consumer behavior, and the rapid 
expansion of online shopping.  The key to urban revitalization 
is to redefine the functions of urban areas rather than regulate 
the size of suburban stores.  Meanwhile, some local initiatives 
in Kyushu to restrict suburban commercial development are more 
political posturing than serious regulation.  End Summary. 
 
KYUSHU:  MOST URBAN CENTERS ARE DECLINING... 
 
¶2. (U) KERC, Kyushu's premier economic think tank, recently 
analyzed the health of urban centers in major cities of the 
region.  According to their report, except for Fukuoka City, 
retail sales in urban commercial centers have been sluggish or 
declining.  In small-medium cities, downtown retail sales fell 
on average about 40% from 1997 to 2002.  Even in central 
Fukuoka, traditionally the "shopping center" of Kyushu, growth 
in retail sales has leveled off.  Some key factors behind this 
trend were a dwindling youth population in most areas, and the 
growing number of large stores located in suburbs.  These now 
account for about 78% of the region's very large stores, defined 
as those with over 15,000 square meters (sq.m.) of floor space. 
KERC also attributes some of the decline to the rapid expansion 
of on-line shopping, which for Japan as a whole shot up by over 
1000% in value terms from 2000-2004.  Retail sales at department 
stores and supermarkets contracted by over 10% during the same 
period. 
 
¶3. (U) Demand for urban office space has also declined across 
the Kyushu/Yamaguchi region, except in the cities of Fukuoka and 
Kagoshima.  Kagoshima continues to benefit as the southern 
terminus of the new Kyushu Shinkansen line, the first leg of 
which opened in 2004.  Meanwhile, economic growth in northern 
Kyushu pushed demand for new office space in Fukuoka to 89,100 
sq.m. from 2000-2004, a level three times that of Nagoya. 
Corporate restructuring and consolidation, particularly in the 
financial services sector, depressed demand in other parts of 
the region, according to KERC. 
 
...BUT DON'T BLAME IT ALL ON SUBURBAN STORES 
 
¶4. (U) In a purported effort to curb the exodus of shoppers to 
the suburbs, the GOJ is proposing to amend portions of Japan's 
Urban Planning Laws, in particular the City Planning Law.  (The 
other two pieces of the Urban Planning Laws, or "Machizukuri 
Sanpo," are the Downtown Area Revitalization Law, and the Large 
Store Location Law.)  Under the proposed amendments, new zoning 
restrictions would limit the types of land on which large stores 
(defined as 10,000 sq.m. floor space or greater) could be 
constructed in suburban areas.  However, because of the variety 
of factors outlined in its report, KERC is very skeptical that 
such restrictions will contribute much to urban revitalization. 
Rather, large-scale demographic changes, as well as changing 
consumption patterns - such as greater spending on services vs. 
goods - will have a more profound impact on the fortunes of 
urban retailers, KERC believes. 
 
REDEFINING THE ROLE OF URBAN CENTERS 
 
¶5. (U) According to KERC, the seeds of rejuvenation are emerging 
as some urban areas transform themselves from "consumption" into 
"production" centers.  Venture and personal services businesses 
are beginning to fill vacant commercial space, and the 
population in some urban districts is gradually rising with new 
condominium construction.  KERC suggests that even as Kyushu's 
urban cores lose their role as merchandising centers to the 
suburbs, they can find new life as 1) residential space 
(especially for seniors and working families with small 
children); 2) incubation zones for venture businesses; 3) 
centers for arts and education; and 4) home to knowledge-based 
industries.  On this last point, KERC noted that in 
Kyushu/Yamaguchi there are now 103 customer service call 
 
FUKUOKA 00000023  002 OF 002 
 
 
centers, accounting for over 20,000 new jobs.  About 80% of 
these are in urban districts.  They include main call centers of 
U.S. firms AIG Group and Dell in the cities of Nagasaki and 
Miyazaki, respectively. 
 
LOCAL INITIATIVES:  POLITICS OVER SUBSTANCE 
 
¶6. (U) Among Kyushu jurisdictions, Kumamoto Prefecture in 
particular has drawn attention for issuing its own guidelines in 
December 2005 on the opening of large stores (over 10,000 
sq.m.).  Kumamoto said it crafted the measures as a follow-up to 
the GOJ's March 2005 amendments to Guidelines for Article 4 of 
the "Large Store Location Law." These national guidelines 
mention the "social responsibilities" to the community of large 
stores (more broadly defined as over 1,000 sq.m.), but don't 
specify what these responsibilities are.  A Kumamoto official 
told post that the local guidelines are not geared at 
restricting store size or location, but are rather to suggest 
specific ways in which the store can contribute to the community 
(such as joining the local chamber of commerce, supporting local 
events, promoting local products, etc.).  Within four months of 
submitting an application to build a new large store, for 
instance, companies are asked to submit a "community 
contribution plan" to the prefecture and hold an explanatory 
meeting for affected communities. 
 
¶7. (SBU) While large retailers have criticized the GOJ's 
proposed amendments as contrary to Japan's structural reform 
drive, their reaction to the Kumamoto initiative is that it is a 
political gesture which will have little substantive effect on 
business plans.  Prefecture officials emphasize that the 
guidelines are non-binding, and a local industry contact 
dismissed them as a purely political gesture in response to 
pressure from local legislators and their constituents 
(especially local chambers of commerce and small business 
associations).  In fact, Kumamoto officials assure post that 
they welcome large retailers as a boost to the local economy, 
even though they are hesitant to say so publicly.  The floor 
space of large suburban stores opened since 1995 already 
surpasses that of central Kumamoto retailers, and Japanese chain 
Aeon plans a new "mega store" in the area this fall. 
 
COMMENT 
 
¶8. (SBU) While some of the most vocal advocates of restrictions 
on large suburban stores are often downtown small business 
owners, the true position of these owners is more complex.  A 
retail industry contact in Miyazaki told post that small 
retailers may publicly voice concerns, but many of the owners 
live in the suburbs and regularly shop at the large stores they 
are protesting against.  Aging family owners of many small shops 
have no successors to carry on the business, and their own tight 
financial situation drives them to shop at big discount 
retailers.  As KERC's study shows, simply imposing limitations 
on suburban stores will do little for urban revitalization in 
the face of these wider trends in Japanese society.  Rather, a 
paradigm shift in the nature of urban centers will be necessary. 
 End comment. 
WONG