VZCZCXRO6157
PP RUEHPA
DE RUEHDK #0864 0971443
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 071443Z APR 06
FM AMEMBASSY DAKAR
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4791
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L DAKAR 000864 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF/W, AF/RSA AND DRL/PHD 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/07/2011 
TAGS: PGOV PINR ECON SG
SUBJECT: WADE TALKS ABOUT REVIVING THE CHARGES AGAINST SECK 
 
REF: A. DAKAR 00832 
 
     ¶B. DAKAR 0565 
     ¶C. DAKAR 0316 
     ¶D. 05 DAKAR 2509 
 
Classified By: DCM ROBERT P. JACKSON FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D). 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
¶1.  (C) Following former Prime Minister Seck's announcement 
that he plans to run for President, President Wade ordered a 
re-examination of "illicit enrichment" charges against Seck. 
Privately, a member of Seck's team confided that any attempt 
to re-imprison Seck will be resisted by Seck and his growing 
mass of supporters.  Meanwhile, the Seck camp announced 
publicly that Seck will launch his electoral campaign next 
week.  END SUMMARY. 
 
RE-OPENING THE CASE AGAINST SECK 
-------------------------------- 
¶2.  (U) 24 hours after Seck's announcement that he will run 
for the presidency, the GOS indicated there would be new 
developments in the "illicit enrichment" case against him. 
According to "Walfadjri," a leading Dakar daily, the GOS 
wants to re-open the case and require Seck to prove the 
origin of his personal bank accounts.  State Prosecutor Mbaye 
Jacques Ndiaye told another newspaper, "Il est Midi," that 
Seck retains the burden of proof, not the Government, and 
that his attempt to run for president while still a defendant 
in a pending case is "invalid." 
 
STARTING SECK'S CAMPAIGN 
------------------------ 
¶3.  (U) Opposition member of the National Assembly and close 
Seck confidant Omar Sarr told the press Seck will start his 
election drive next week, with plans to eventually hit all 
parts of the country.  He also claimed the Movement for 
Support of Idrissa Seck (MSIS) now has up to 600,000 members 
and signs of support from 11 opposition parties.  Kaolack 
Tidjane leader Mamoune Niasse has announced his support, as 
we expected (Ref A). 
 
¶4.  (C) In confidence, Sarr revealed to us that the MSIS has 
already conducted "studies," showing that in an electoral 
contest between Seck, Wade, and Moustapha Niasse, Seck would 
win, Wade would come in second, and Niasse third.  He also 
said Seck will resist physically any attempt to re-arrest 
him.  Moreover, if Seck is put in prison again, the Seck camp 
will not ask supporters to be peaceable, as they did when he 
was in prison before.  They will call for violent resistance, 
which they see as the only solution at that point.  Sarr also 
said he believes Wade's entourage capable of violence -- in 
fact, of murder.  Sarr added that given the deepening 
economic crisis, he believes elections will be held in 2006 
-- not in 2007.  He said that he, other members of the 
Assembly, and the GOS are all aware the GOS has mishandled 
the budget for this year, but they have maintained a 
conspiracy of silence for fear of the public reaction. 
According to him, though, the outcome will be disastrous. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
¶5.  (C) There has been much criticism of the political 
talents and judgment of Seck's proteges in the PDS, and we 
have found Sarr to be energetic and strategically minded but 
volatile.  Clearly, the Government's reopening of charges is 
a provocation.  We take Sarr's predictions of violence with a 
grain of salt.  We will follow up with Seck's older cousin, 
Alioune Badara Niang (Ref D), who as a former Wade 
strong-arm, is no stranger to campaign violence.  END COMMENT. 
JACKSON