VZCZCXRO5547
PP RUEHPA
DE RUEHDK #1004 1161647
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 261647Z APR 06
FM AMEMBASSY DAKAR
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4955
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA PRIORITY 0176
RUEHLC/AMEMBASSY LIBREVILLE PRIORITY 0878
RUEHLI/AMEMBASSY LISBON PRIORITY 0728
RUEHLU/AMEMBASSY LUANDA PRIORITY 0379
RUEHTO/AMEMBASSY MAPUTO PRIORITY 0412
RUEHRO/AMEMBASSY ROME PRIORITY 0634
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY 0712

C O N F I D E N T I A L DAKAR 001004 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF/W, AF/RSA, DRL/PHD, INR/AA AND PRM/AA 
AID/W FOR DCHA/OFDA 
ACCRA ALSO FOR WARP 
GENEVA FOR RMA 
LISBON ALSO FOR DAO 
PARIS FOR POL - D'ELIA 
ROME FOR FODAG 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/26/2016 
TAGS: MOPS PINS EAID PGOV PHUM PREL ECON PU SG
SUBJECT: GUINEA-BISSAU: BORDER CALMING DOWN FOR NOW 
 
 
Classified By: DCM Robert P. Jackson for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
¶1.  (U) Fighting in northern Guinea-Bissau has mostly ended 
with all rebel bases overrun by the Bissau-Guinean military. 
A new wave of displaced flooded into isolated Susana during 
the final push, but others have begun returning home to Sao 
Domingos, where life is returning to normal.  The World Food 
Program (WFP) has fed the displaced since the mid-March 
inception of the conflict and has depleted its stocks but 
will borrow from WFP stocks in Senegal until more is provided 
by the UN.  WFP is planning on six more months of assistance. 
 Political leaders say this is the end, but the Armed Forces 
Chief threatened to keep fighting until the rebel faction 
joins peace talks with Government of Senegal.  END SUMMARY. 
 
UNCOMFORTABLE BUT PROVIDED FOR 
------------------------------ 
¶2.  (U) Major military operations appear to have largely 
ended in northern Guinea-Bissau, but people will remain 
displaced for several more months until they get assurances 
from the Government and international organizations providing 
assistance that it is safe to return.  Land mines still pose 
the biggest risk and many are likely buried in cashew fields. 
 Those who are unable to return soon to tend to their crops 
will suffer a heavy economic burden that will last well 
beyond the discomfort of being displaced.  In Cacheu and 
Ingore, the two largest sites, there are still about 1,000 
and 760 displaced, respectively.  A new wave of about 1,000 
displaced flooded into Susana on April 21 during another GOGB 
offensive on rebel bases. 
 
¶3.  (U) Most who live in Sao Domingos have gone back home and 
life is returning to normal there, with the school reopening 
and commerce resuming.  Some displaced people trekked back to 
check on their homes around Barraca Mandioca, a rebel base 
that saw heavy fighting, but they returned to Ingore over 
concerns about land mines.  They found all livestock and food 
gone, but physical structures in good condition. 
 
¶4.  (U) The Bissau-based WFP has taken primary responsibility 
for providing food for all internally displaced persons, even 
in the isolated Susana and Varela areas, which are accessed 
via boat.  The International Committee of the Red Cross 
(ICRC), local Red Cross, Adventist Development and Relief 
Agency (ADRA), and local Catholic missions coordinate 
distribution, volunteers and supply of basic medicines.  The 
Government has allowed relief agencies to operate in all 
areas, but has done little to coordinate or provide basic 
needs.  Last week, the GOGB finally agreed to use stocks of 
rice as WFP,s were depleted.  WFP is planning on receiving 
UN support for another three to six months of food aid. 
 
END TO HOSTILITIES? 
------------------- 
¶5.  (C) The Community of Portuguese Speaking Countries 
(CPLP), the ICRC and non-governmental organizations such as 
the West African Network for Peacebuilding (WANEP) indicate 
the Government has been open to negotiating with Movement of 
Democratic Forces of the Casamance (MFDC) Atika rebel faction 
leader Salif Sadio, offering to cease hostilities if he would 
leave Guinea-Bissau.  Recent comments by Armed Forces Chief 
of Staff LTG Baptista Tagme na Waie that he would take the 
fight to Sadio in Senegal if he does not enter into peace 
talks with the GOS represent a disconnect with the political 
leadership. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
¶6.  (C) It appears that Tagme,s desire for a military 
victory may be pushing political leaders further than they 
want to go.  At this point, the military seems to be under 
control of civilian political leadership, but if GOGB forces 
do not exclude fighting outside Guinea-Bissau, that will be 
in doubt.  END COMMENT. 
JACOBS