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Viewing cable 06COPENHAGEN441, SCENESETTER FOR COALITION CONSULTATIONS WITH

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06COPENHAGEN441 2006-04-04 12:34 2011-08-30 01:44 CONFIDENTIAL Embassy Copenhagen
VZCZCXYZ0038
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHCP #0441/01 0941234
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 041234Z APR 06
FM AMEMBASSY COPENHAGEN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2186
INFO RUEHXP/ALL NATO POST COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHMFISS/USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L COPENHAGEN 000441 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR DEPUTY SENIOR ADVISOR ON IRAQ DEUTSCH 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/04/2016 
TAGS: PREL MOPS DA IQ
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR COALITION CONSULTATIONS WITH 
DENMARK - APRIL 7 
 
Classified By: AMBASSADOR JAMES P. CAIN, REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D) 
 
1. (C) Summary. Embassy warmly welcomes S/I Deputy Deutsch 
and the interagency team for the April 7 coalition 
consultations with the Danish government.  Despite flagging 
domestic support for the military effort in Iraq, implacable 
parliamentary opposition and the shock of Mohammed cartoon 
crisis, the government of PM Anders Fogh Rasmussen is 
committed to remaining in the multinational coalition in 
Iraq.  To keep its participation politically viable, the 
Danish government must reconfigure and calibrate Denmark's 
contributions, which it wants to do in sync with U.S. and UK 
adjustments to the evolving security situation on the ground. 
 The government also needs to be seen by the public as being 
a true and full partner in discussing these adjustments. You 
will have a real opportunity to shape Danish decision-making 
in Iraq for the coming year.  Your meetings will help Danish 
officials prepare the strongest possible case for continued 
and effective engagement in Iraq, and reassure them that 
there will be "no surprises" in coalition deployments.  In 
addition, your media outreach will demonstrate the USG's 
continued commitment to coordinate closely with partners in 
Iraq.   End Summary. 
 
--------------------- 
Commitment at the Top 
--------------------- 
 
2. (C) From PM Anders Fogh Rasmussen on down, the Danish 
government remains firmly committed to extending Denmark's 
contributions in Iraq.  Rasmussen continues to declare that 
Danish troops will remain deployed in Iraq as long as the UN 
mandate exists, the Iraqi government requests it, and Danish 
troops are making a difference.  You and your interagency 
team will meet with the Danish officials most involved in 
securing continued parliamentary support for Denmark's 
deployment of 500-plus troops in Iraq from July 1 to the end 
of 2006. 
 
3. (C) As they contemplate the composition and duration of 
the deployment, these officials want to ensure that the 
needs-based evolution of their contributions is in sync with 
U.S. and UK adjustments.  All your interlocutors welcome this 
opportunity for a full and transparent dialogue on the way 
ahead in Iraq.  After your consultations, a Danish 
interagency group will begin drafting a "white paper" that 
will frame the upcoming parliamentary and public debate on 
renewal. 
 
--------------------------------------------- - 
Policy Formation and Parliamentary Maneuvering 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
4. (C) The Danish government faces a tough political 
challenge in securing a broad majority for an extension 
through the end of 2006.  Following publication of its "white 
paper," the government will introduce the extension 
resolution to parliament in early May.  There will be 
committee hearings and two parliamentary readings/debates of 
the government's mandate extension proposal in mid and late 
May.  The readings will be followed by a full parliamentary 
vote in late May, prior to the early June summer recess. The 
two largest opposition parties, the Social Democrats and 
Social Liberals, have declared they will not vote for any 
further extensions.  With opinion surveys charting 
diminishing public support for the Danish role in Iraq, the 
opposition parties are playing to their core constituents, 
who opposed the initial intervention in Iraq.  It appears 
unlikely that they can be turned around on this vote, but the 
Prime Minister is not going to allow the opposition to 
dictate Iraq policy. 
 
5. (C) If the mainstream opposition parties do withdraw their 
support, the government will have to rely on a narrow 
parliamentary majority to ram through the resolution, a 
contentious maneuver in the consensus-oriented Danish 
parliamentary tradition.  It would depend on the support of 
the anti-immigrant Danish People's Party (DPP) to extend the 
deployment. DPP leader Pia Kjaersgaard recently told us that, 
for now, she will continue to support the Prime Minister's 
Iraq policy.  However, DPP leaders as well as rank and file 
are growing increasingly uncomfortable with the Iraq mission. 
 At the political level, the maneuvering will be delicate. 
At the policy level, there is considerable pressure to shape 
Denmark's contributions into a package that can win 
parliamentary approval. 
 
 
6. (C) In this light, Danish officials have said they intend 
to emphasize training, assistance, and civilian roles in 
Denmark's contributions in Iraq.  Denmark will participate in 
the British-led PRT in Basrah, including with civilian 
advisers. Denmark will continue to support NTM-I and provide 
police trainers.  Danish military planners will be extremely 
interested in U.S. plans for deployments and drawdowns to 
ensure that Danish force trends conform to those of its ally. 
 
 
-------------- 
Damage Control 
-------------- 
 
7. (C) The crisis that erupted over the publication of 
cartoons depicting Mohammed poses an additional challenge to 
keeping Denmark engaged in the world.  Denmark's worst 
foreign policy crisis since World War II took a psychological 
toll on the normally sure-footed Danes. Danish foreign policy 
officials are still warily picking up the pieces.  With a 
self-image based on long-standing international acclaim as a 
benevolent, honest broker, Danes were shocked to see 
themselves portrayed as the bad guy.  Your interlocutors 
understand the need for active Danish involvement in 
international affairs, but they are likely to confront a more 
skeptical, risk-averse public.  Your consultations will help 
these officials focus over the horizon and remain a steady 
international partner. 
 
8. (C) Denmark recently lost its third soldier in Iraq, but 
public reaction has been largely muted.  Should Denmark 
suffer bigger casualty rates, maintaining political support 
for Denmark's efforts would be much more difficult, according 
to our contacts.  Unable to build a solid case for its 
arbitrary call for a July 1 withdrawal of Danish troops in 
Iraq, the opposition increasingly is focusing its criticism 
on alleged cases of U.S. mistreatment of detainees, 
Guantanamo, and other human rights issues in an effort to 
drive a wedge between Denmark and the U.S.  These issues may 
not be raised at the consultation table but Danish officials 
certainly will have to adddress these concerns in the "white 
paper."  You will have a chance to speak to these concerns on 
the margins of your meetings and they surely will be raised 
in your press interview. 
 
9. (U) We look forward to your very timely and useful visit. 
CAIN