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O P 131446Z APR 06
FM AMCONSUL CALCUTTA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0869
INFO RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI PRIORITY 0807
RUEHBI/AMCONSUL MUMBAI 0318
RUEHCG/AMCONSUL CHENNAI 0318
RUEHKA/AMEMBASSY DHAKA 0186
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RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD 0134
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RUEHGO/AMEMBASSY RANGOON 0112
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHMFIUU/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RUEHC/USAID WASHDC
RUEHCI/AMCONSUL CALCUTTA 1062

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CALCUTTA 000148 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM SOCI ASEC IN
SUBJECT: LEFTIST PROJECTED TO WIN WEST BENGAL STATE ASSEMBLY 
ELECTIONS 
 
REF: A) CALCUTTA 00109   B) CALCUTTA 00105 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary:  On April 17, West Bengal will hold its first 
phase of the state assembly elections.  With only a few days 
remaining, main opposition parties the Trinamul Congress 
(Trinamul) and the Congress Party (Congress) have failed to 
unite against the ruling Left Front.  The only "opposition" 
faced by the Left Front in its campaign has come from the 
stringent guidelines being enforced by the national Election 
Commission (EC).  The Leftist leaders have expressed strong 
objection to some of the EC's actions, including raids in 
Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPM) offices.  However, the 
Left leadership claims that they will follow all EC directives. 
Even with the additional oversight, The Left Front is still 
expected to win more than 200 of the 294 state assembly seats. 
The EC is also initiating security measures for the first phase 
of polling in the Maoist-affected districts.  End Summary. 
 
------------------------- 
Opposition Fails to Unite 
------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (U) Despite extensive discussions, principal opposition 
parties Congress and Trinamul have failed to forge an alliance 
against the ruling Left Front.  The anti-Left votes will 
therefore split between the two parties, helping the Left to win 
the state government for the seventh consecutive time.  Trinamul 
chief Mamata Banerjee had called for a "mahajot" or grand 
alliance that would include the Congress.  However, Congress 
declined since her party is allied with the Bharatiya Janata 
Party (BJP), a Hindu communal party.  Banerjee is leading a 
platform, the Paschimbanga Ganatantrik Front (West Bengal 
Democratic Front) that includes the BJP and other smaller 
parties.  The Trinamul is fielding 252 candidates, leaving 32 
seats for the BJP and 10 for smaller allies.  Congress announced 
260 electoral candidates, leaving other seats for smaller allies 
like the Party for Democratic Socialism (PDS) and Jharkhand 
Mukti Morcha (JMM).  Congress is also experiencing trouble in 
the party stronghold of Murshidabad district.  As a result of 
factional fighting, the district Congress chief is fielding 
independent candidates to challenge official Congress candidates 
chosen by the central leadership. 
 
-------------------------------- 
Left versus Election Commission 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Lacking a serious competitor, the EC seems to have 
become the Left's only "opposition."  The EC has come down 
heavily on alleged electoral malpractices in West Bengal where 
the Left Front has ruled uninterrupted for the past 29 years. 
The EC cleaned-up the electoral rolls of fake and dead voters, 
whose names have been used in the past by the Left to stuff the 
ballot box, deleting more than 1.4 million names in the process. 
 The EC also controlled issuance of photo-identity cards for 
voters, banned political graffiti, has ordered the installation 
digital cameras in voting booths and the presence of central 
police personnel at polling stations among a range of other 
stringent measures to ensure free and fair elections.  The 
voting process also will be in an unprecedented five phases to 
facilitate greater supervision (April 17, 22 and 27, and then 
May 3 and 8.  Counting will take place on May 11.)  Not even the 
corruption-plagued Bihar had as many phases in its 2005 assembly 
elections. 
 
¶4.  (U) In response to the EC pressure, on April 3 a Left Front 
delegation led by CPM General Secretary Prakash Karat met with 
the EC authorities to protest its measures, specifically the 
deployment of central paramilitary forces in all polling booths, 
the deletion of a large number of voters from the electoral 
rolls, the "biased" role of certain observers and the ban on 
graffiti, posters and banners in West Bengal.  The Left alleged 
that opposition parties were trying to have names of genuine 
voters deleted from the electoral list by furnishing biased 
information to the EC.  Karat added that CPM MP Alokesh Das had 
been served a notice by the EC to prove he is a genuine citizen 
and not an illegal Bangladeshi settler in West Bengal. 
 
¶5.  (U) During the night of April 4-5, police and central 
paramilitary force personnel raided two CPM offices in Keshpur, 
 
CALCUTTA 00000148  002 OF 002 
 
 
Midnapore district, under instructions from an EC observer to 
look for arms and ammunition.  CPM alleged that Trinamul members 
accompanied the raiding force. The CPM lodged a protest with the 
Chief Election Commissioner.  However, the EC maintained that 
the observer performed his duties correctly, while the CPM 
complained of his partisan behaviour. 
 
 
¶6.   (U) Further on April 5, EC lodged a police complaint 
against West Bengal Transport Minister and CPM candidate Subhas 
Chakraborty, charging his public outburst against election 
officials "aimed at preventing officials from impartially 
performing their duties of free and fair elections." 
Chakraborty reportedly said that state bureaucrats engaged in 
poll work were "going too far in the name of conducting 
elections."  He warned that after the election process was over 
on May 11, he would teach the state bureaucrats who followed the 
EC guidelines in administering the elections a lesson.  He 
threatened that they were on the payroll of his government and 
would have to fall to the feet of the state ministers for whom 
they worked.  Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharya and Karat 
admitted that Chakraborty remarks were inflammatory and that he 
had made a mistake. 
 
-------------------- 
The Red Fort Secure 
-------------------- 
 
¶7.   (U) With the opposition disunited and lacking an 
alternative political agenda, the Left is expected to win 
easily, possibly in a landslide.  A CNN-IBN-Hindu pre-poll 
survey shows the Left Front increasing its number of seats from 
its present 199 to 233-243, out of a total of 294.  The Congress 
with it current 26 seats is expected to only win 24-30 and 
Trinamul may see a significant drop from 60 to only 24-30 seats. 
 A Kolkata TV-Org Marg survey indicates that the Left Front may 
win only 200-210 seats, and Trinamul and Congress would retain 
approximately their present number of seats.  A Star Ananda-A.C. 
Nielsen survey shows more than 210 seats for the Left, 38-40 
seats for the Trinamul and 30-32 seats for the Congress. 
First Phase: Tackling Maoists 
 
¶8.  (U) In response to the persistent threat of Maoist violence, 
the EC directed West Bengal, Bihar and Jharkhand governments to 
ensure inter-state borders were sealed during the polling period 
in the Maoist-affected districts of West Midnapore, Bankura and 
Purulia.  In recent months, the Maoists have targeted and 
murdered CPM officials in these districts (Reftel) and have 
called for a boycott of the elections.  Deputy Election 
Commissioner R. Balakrishnan told the press that EC and local 
officials were prepared and have reviewed all aspects of 
election management and security arrangements in the three 
districts. 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Comment:  The CPM and Left Front allies are expected 
to win a sizeable majority of the state assembly seats in the 
coming election.  The only question is whether it will be 
landslide victory as indicated by some pre-voting polls.  If 
Chief Minister Bhattacharya is able to lead the Left Front to a 
major victory, he will likely feel secure enough to implement 
more radical free market economic reforms for the state and to 
more aggressively court foreign investment. 
JARDINE