VZCZCXRO5490
RR RUEHAG RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN RUEHLZ
RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHBW #0655/01 1161554
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 261554Z APR 06
FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8459
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000655 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL MW SR
SUBJECT: MONTENEGRIN INDEPEDENCE REFERENDUM: BLACK 
MOUNTAIN, RED FACES 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - PLEASE HANDLE ACCORDINGLY 
 
Ref: Belgrade 615 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: Missteps and misstatements dogged the 
pro-Union campaign last week. On April 24, police arrested 
one of eight pro-Union members of the Republic Referendum 
Commission on suspicion of falsifying voter registrations. 
Prosecution was approved by the State Prosecutor. No pro- 
Union members of the Commission attended its meeting on 
April 25.  Two stories implying USG support for the 
Unionists - an "urgent invitation" for four anti-Djukanovic 
(but not all pro-Union) leaders to meet with State EUR A/S 
Fried, and an alleged DEA report "warning" of negative 
effects from potential Montenegrin independence - were both 
refuted by the USG. The local NGO Center for Democratic 
Transition (CDT) noted publicly that the pro-Union bloc had 
refused to sign a Code of Conduct. Group for Changes (GZP), 
an anti-Djukanovic "proto-party," saw its leadership split 
when GZP head Medojevic adamantly refused to allow GZP to 
endorse independence (which he personally supports).  With 
their strategy focusing on GoM corruption astray, the pro- 
Union bloc may again be considering a boycott of the 
referendum bodies. End summary. 
 
Dead Voters? 
------------ 
 
¶2. (U) Nikola Medojevic (SNS - Serb People's Party) one of 
eight pro-Union members of the Republic Referendum 
Commission, was arrested April 24 on suspicion of 
falsifying voter registration data in 16 cases - including 
seeking the registration of a recently deceased 
person. Police are investigating another 2000 voter 
registration files. Two others, including a member of the 
Main Board of the Socialist People's Party (SNP) and a 
lawyer for SNP, were arrested in the same case. Prosecution 
was approved by the State Prosecutor.  While the Prosecutor 
was appointed by the GoM, she has a track record of 
professionalism and independence, including approving the 
prosecution of pro-GoM activists for alleged vote buying in 
the "Zeta film" case. 
 
¶3. (SBU) The Republic Referendum Commission has seventeen 
members: eight pro-Independence, eight pro-Union, with an 
international (Slovak) chair. The blocs have voted along 
strict partisan lines, requiring the chair to break ties. 
The Commission met on April 25, but without the presence of 
the pro-Union members.  The Commission decided not to meet 
again until the pro-Union members reappear. Commission 
Chair Ambassador Lipka said that the court should have 
exercised more discretion in the present case, and that 
that there was no need for immediate arrest. Lipka said 
that the effect of a pro-Union boycott was still a 
hypothetical question, which he did not wish to answer. 
Comment: The arrests may yet lead to the threatened pro- 
Union boycott of the referendum bodies.  End comment. 
 
No Invitation 
------------- 
 
¶4. (U) On April 19, Podgorica anti-government daily "Dan" 
headlined a report that the "Alternative Four" had been 
invited by Secretary Rice, through EUR A/S Fried, to a 
series of meetings with the "most influential people in the 
State Department."  The four, from groups opposed to PM 
Djukanovic, include: Predrag Bulatovic, leader of the 
Socialist People's Party (SNP) and the pro-union bloc; 
Executive Director of the NGO and "proto-party" "Group for 
Changes" Nebojsa Medojevic; former Montenegrin Minister of 
Interior Andrija Jovicevic; and former FRY Ambassador to 
Italy Miodrag Lekic.  The purpose of the meetings was 
allegedly to discuss the referendum and a post-referendum 
Montenegro, causing Dragan Soc, former head of the People's 
Party (NS), to proclaim that "the sole fact that, at this 
moment, the State Department is inviting these people for 
consultations indicates that they estimate that PM 
Djukanovic will lose in the referendum and exit the 
political scene" and that by doing so, the Department "has 
indicated they should now talk to those who will take over 
the future leadership of Montenegro." 
 
¶5. (U) Later on April 19, Consulate Podgorica gave several 
statements to Montenegrin media, clarifying that there had 
been no invitation by the Department, that the group would 
not meet with A/S Fried, and that, at the request of the 
SaM embassy in Washington, a meeting at an appropriate 
level would be arranged.  Refuting Soc publicly, Consulate 
reiterated that the USG is strictly neutral on the outcome 
 
BELGRADE 00000655  002 OF 002 
 
 
of the referendum, that the USG has always met with a wide 
variety of interlocutors in Montenegro, and that such 
meetings do not imply support of a particular point of 
view.  Montenegrin media extensively covered and 
editorialized on the correction the following day. The 
story and corrections (without embellishment) lagged by one 
day in the Belgrade press. 
 
No DEA Report 
------------- 
 
¶6. (U) Even before the "invitation" story broke, pro-Union 
press in Belgrade and Montenegro reported on a supposed 
report from the U.S. Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA). The 
media, citing "anonymous sources in the Serbian police," 
said the DEA had warned that Montenegrin independence and 
Kosovo separation would cause mafia wars in Montenegro and 
an increased level of crime. The Consulate and Embassy 
confirmed with the DEA country office in Rome that "the DEA 
has not published and/or conducted any such 'study'", and 
answered press inquiries on April 20 noting that the 
Consulate was not aware of any such study. 
 
No Code of Conduct 
------------------ 
 
¶7. (U) The local independent NGO, Center for Democratic 
Transition (CDT), noted publicly on April 20 that the pro- 
Union bloc had refused to sign a Code of Conduct. The same 
code has become a tradition in Montenegrin elections since 
2001, and the pro-Independence bloc was again willing to 
sign. Pro-Union leaders Bulatovic and Popovic told 
Consulate they had no problem with the text of the Code and 
would sign if anyone else were sponsoring it, but that they 
wouldn't sign anything from CDT because it was "biased." 
CDT's monitoring efforts are supported by USAID through a 
sub-grant to NDI. CDT released a press statement, with 
Consulate's permission, that the USG supported adherence by 
both blocs to the Code. 
 
No Unity - GZP 
-------------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) On April 14, Svetozar Jovicevic resigned as 
president of NGO (and "proto-party") Group for Changes 
(GZP). Jovicevic had resigned after his call for the GZP 
Executive Board to rally the organization's supporters to 
vote in favor of Montenegrin independence was rejected. GZP 
leader Nebojsa Medojevic, while personally pro- 
independence, is unwilling to alienate the sizeable number 
of GZP supporters who favor State Union.  He has kept GZP 
on the fence waiting for a chance to dislodge PM Djukanovic 
in post-referendum elections.  Jovicevic's departure has 
precipitated a split in GZP, as some other leading members 
have followed his example. 
 
New Film 
-------- 
 
¶9. (U) These missteps overshadow the release by SNP to the 
local pro-Union newspaper "Dan" on April 20 of another film 
showing the DPS activist from the "Zeta film" again 
allegedly buying votes.  Consulate, and ODIHR, had earlier 
advised the SNP and the pro-Union bloc that evidence of 
alleged criminal violations of the referendum law, such as 
vote buying, should be provided to the appropriate 
authorities that are empowered to investigate and prosecute 
such. 
 
POLT