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R 201437Z APR 06
FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8411
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS BELGRADE 000623 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL KDEM SR PBTS PGOV PNAT MW
SUBJECT: Bulatovic Threatens Boycott 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary: Predrag Bulatovic, leader of the 
Socialist People's Party (SNP), has leveled accusations 
of impropriety and voter fraud against Montenegrin 
Prime Minister Djukanovic in the run-up to the 
independence referendum on May 21.  He added that he is 
concerned over the international community's oversight 
of the process and claims to be considering boycotting 
the referendum.  We doubt he will go that far.  End 
Summary. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) On April 13, Bulatovic met with the 
Ambassador to discuss the Montenegrin referendum.  The 
SNP leader claimed that Djukanovic was actively 
attempting to buy votes in advance of the May 
referendum.  He said that the SNP had another film (in 
addition to the previously released Zeta film), showing 
members of Djukanovic's Democratic Party of Socialists 
(DPS) bribing pro-Union supporters to abstain.  He 
further claimed that the DPS had bought 5,000 ID cards 
of pro-Union supporters and planned to purchase another 
15,000 (at 200 euros a piece), which he insinuated 
would prevent them from voting.  Bulatovic noted that 
he had seen a "bag of ID cards" that came from DPS 
headquarters, which he had photographed and planned to 
present publicly. Lastly, he accused the government of 
removing pro-Union supporters from election lists and 
not collecting on past due electric bills. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Bulatovic said he had no faith in the system 
established by the March referendum law and was 
reluctant to continue working with the referendum 
commission and other established oversight committees. 
He said that he would continue to cooperate with the 
international community for the now, but that he and 
his allies would need to adopt a "strong decision" (a 
euphemism for boycott) in response to "all the crimes 
committed by Djukanovic."  He concluded that he would 
probably leave politics if the referendum passes. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Podgorica Principal Officer followed up with 
Bulatovic and People's Party (NS) President Predrag 
Popovic on April 17.  Bulatovic raised other alleged 
violations of the law, pointing to the commingling of 
GoM and pro-Independence assets and actions.  When 
asked what action most placed a democratic referendum 
in jeopardy, Bulatovic again stressed allegations that 
the DPS is buying ID cards.  P.O. urged the bloc 
leaders to bring all such evidence of the buying of ID 
cards to the appropriate authorities, reminding him 
that the international community had neither the 
ability nor mandate to investigate such allegations. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Comment: Instead of making a strong push to 
defeat the referendum--which all polls suggest remains 
possible--pro-Union forces are looking for a way to 
"save face" through protest.  Most observers expect 
some campaign abuses to occur in the run-up to May 21, 
but most of Bulatovic's accusations seem questionable. 
For example, ID cards are not needed to vote (several 
different forms of identification can be used), so 
collecting them would have no impact.  Additionally, ID 
cards are needed for everyday life--such as collecting 
a pension--which would put an arduous burden on those 
who supposedly surrendered them.  Pro-Union forces 
probably hope the international community will 
legitimize their allegations against the DPS by 
investigating each accusation, which would weaken the 
pro-Independence movement.  We will continue to 
strongly encourage the opposition to participate in the 
referendum and speak out against actual campaign 
violations, while refusing to be dragged into the 
mudslinging between the two sides. 
POLT