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RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHBW #0615/01 1091245
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 191245Z APR 06
FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8402
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000615 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL MW SR
SUBJECT: MONTENEGRIN INDEPEDENCE REFERENDUM: CAMPAIGN 
BEGINS IN EARNEST 
 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - PLEASE HANDLE ACCORDINGLY 
 
Ref: Belgrade 575 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: The past week saw the referendum 
campaigns begin in earnest, with billboards, TV spots, and 
- for the pro-Union bloc - a large public rally. The pro- 
Union bloc continued its focus on alleged improprieties by 
the GoM (and media).  The GoM published a Declaration on 
Independence, and a Declaration on Relations with Serbia. 
Poloffs visited the north and far north of Montenegro to 
discuss the upcoming vote. The USG will register 14 teams 
to monitor the vote.  End summary. 
 
The Campaign Begins 
------------------- 
 
¶2.  (U) TV spots and billboards began to appear for both 
sides last week.  The pro-Union bloc ads state "No - 
Montenegro is not for sale," continuing its theme that the 
GoM and PM Djukanovic are corrupt and tying into its 
allegations that Djukanovic supporters are buying ID cards. 
The pro-Independence bloc counters with "Yes - For the 
Montenegro We Love." The pro-Union bloc held a large, 
traditional rally on April 17 in Mojkovac (central 
Montenegro) to formally kick off their campaign.  The pro- 
Independence bloc announced it would defer such rallies 
until closer to the May 21 vote. 
 
Pro-Union Bloc Meets with USG 
----------------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) Pro-Union bloc leader Socialist People's Party 
(SNP) president Predrag Bulatovic met with Ambassador Polt 
and Podgorica principal officer on April 13; Bulatovic and 
People's Party (NS) president Predrag Popovic had a follow- 
up meeting with P.O. on April 17. (Details septel). The 
leaders continued to stress a wide range of alleged GoM and 
DPS (Democratic Party of Socialists - led by PM Djukanovic) 
campaign violations - from the mundane (PM using GoM and 
not party cars to go to events) to serious - centering on 
allegations that the DPS has already bought 5,000 ID cards 
with the end goal to buy 20,000, supposedly to suppress 
voter turnout (Montenegro has 470,000 voters). The bloc 
also complained that Slovak Ambassador Lipka, who heads the 
Republic Referendum Commission, "is siding with the GoM" by 
not breaking deadlocks about pro-Union allegations filed 
with the otherwise politically evenly split commission. 
Bulatovic noted that when challenged by the Consulate over 
inclusion of the Radicals (headed by indicted war criminal 
Vojislav) Seselj in the pro-Union bloc, the bloc "sided 
with America." 
 
GoM Publishes Declarations 
-------------------------- 
 
¶4. (U) The GoM published a Declaration on Independence, 
spelling out the rights of citizens after independence.  On 
April 13, the GoM adopted a Declaration on Relations with 
the Republic of Serbia after gaining Independence. The 
latter commits Montenegro to open borders with Serbia, and 
guarantees to Serbian citizens all the rights enjoyed by 
Montenegrins, except voting. The GoS dismissed the 
declarations as "political marketing." The pro-Union bloc 
opined to the Consulate that the declarations were another 
instance of improper and even illegal involvement of the 
GoM in the referendum campaign. 
 
The View from Beyond the Capital 
-------------------------------- 
 
 
¶5. (U) Poloff met with political leaders from northern 
Montenegro (Zabljak and Pljevlja) April 11-12 to discuss 
the region and the upcoming referendum, which dominates 
political discourse.  They described their region as 
economically depressed, predominantly ethnic-Serb and aging 
rapidly.  They expressed worries that an independent 
Montenegro would hamper their ties to neighboring Serbia 
and further erode their precarious economic position.  Both 
regions are likely to vote strongly in favor of the State 
Union. [Comment: Although Zabljak is a small municipality, 
Pljevlja has the fifth largest municipal population in 
Montenegro and will be a key voting district on May 21. 
End Comment].  The leaders said that while tensions are 
rising, they did not anticipate any significant violence 
surrounding the referendum. 
 
¶6. (SBU) The DPS (pro-Independence) mayor of Montenegro's 
 
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second largest city, Niksic, told poloff April 14 that he 
expects his city to vote in favor of independence, with 58 
to 62.5 percent of voters saying "Yes." His Chief of Staff 
was more cautious, predicting 55 to 56 percent "Yes."  The 
Mayor won election in a runoff in April 2005 with 54.4 
percent; 21 of Niksic's 41 councilors are from pro- 
Independence parties. 
 
Monitoring Plans 
---------------- 
 
¶7. (U) The Consulate has requested that the GoM accredit 14 
teams to monitor the referendum vote on May 21. Each team 
has two Americans (drawn from the Consulate, Embassy and 
beyond) and local support staff. The Consulate will staff a 
central coordination cell throughout the day.  Polls open 
at 8 a.m. local, closing 13 hours later at 9 p.m. Initial 
approximate results may possibly be available as early as 
10 p.m., but a close vote will result in a long night. 
 
POLT