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RR RUEHAG RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN RUEHLZ
RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHBW #0575/01 1031122
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 131122Z APR 06
FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8353
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000575 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL MW SR
SUBJECT: MONTENEGRIN INDEPENDENCE REFERENDUM: BLOC LEADERS 
RAISE THE STAKES 
 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - PLEASE HANDLE ACCORDINGLY 
 
Ref: Belgrade 530 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: PM Djukanovic stated he would resign and 
call early parliamentary elections if independence gets 
fewer votes than continued union.  Union bloc leader 
Bulatovic replied he would leave politics if the union is 
dissolved. Nascent political party Group for Changes (GZP) 
leader Medojevic predicted a result in the "gray zone" of 
50 to 55 percent for independence - to the benefit of GZP's 
political ambitions. The first of six weekly televised 
debates was held April 10, with Djukanovic and SDP leader 
Krivokapic versus Bulatovic and NS party leader Popovic. 
The judiciary filed charges against those involved in the 
"Zeta Film." End summary. 
 
Djukanovic Raises the Stakes 
---------------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) PM Djukanovic stated April 6, in an interview 
carried by Reuters that he would resign and call early 
parliamentary elections if independence gets fewer votes 
than continued union. He added however that he expects 
independence to get the needed 55 percent of the vote. 
Parliament's mandate expires in October this year. Comment: 
Few observers expect that more votes will be cast for 
continued State Union than for independence; the question 
is whether independence will get the legally required 55 
percent of all valid votes cast.  End comment. 
 
Bulatovic Calls 
--------------- 
 
¶3. (U) Not to be outdone, leader of the pro-Union bloc and 
of the Socialist People's Party (SNP) Predrag Bulatovic 
subsequently told the press that he would "leave politics" 
if independence was not rejected.  Joined by his bloc 
partners, Bulatovic asserted at a press conference that the 
Union would get 180,000 or even 200,000 votes, including 
10,000 disaffected voters from Djukanovic's own Democratic 
Party of Socialists (DPS) - 46 to 51 percent of expected 
turnout.  Comment: The parties that now make up the pro- 
Union bloc have not polled 170,000 votes since the 1997 
election when Djukanovic broke with Milosevic - and the SNP 
split from the DPS. End comment. 
 
Group for Changes Plans for Gray Zone 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) Group for Changes (GZP) leader Nebojsa Medojevic 
told Consulate April 10 that he expects independence to get 
53 percent of the vote, with turnout high at 84 percent. He 
says a significant number of voters who back independence 
will vote no, out of hatred for Djukanovic, and if 
Djukanovic resigned before the vote, independence could 
easily get 60 percent support.  Saying that "no party has 
prepared for the gray zone except the GZP," he said that he 
had advised the GoS not to talk to PM Djukanovic in case of 
a gray zone result, but to wait for the Montenegrin 
parliamentary elections. He would then campaign against 
Djukanovic on the platform that the GoM's corruption and 
dishonesty led to the loss.  Medojevic snidely added that 
"Putin has told Deripaska to end (financial) support to the 
independence campaign," referring to the Russian oligarch 
who in 2005 purchased the Podgorica Aluminum Factory (KAP), 
the single largest component of Montenegro's GDP (12 
percent of GDP in 2004).  Comment: The GZP has almost 
completed its transformation from NGO to party. While 
Medojevic has good sources and may be correct in his 
prediction, it may also be wishful thinking because a gray 
zone would be the result that would most benefit his new 
party and its central platform: for independence, against 
Djukanovic.  End comment. 
 
 
The "Duel" Commences 
-------------------- 
 
¶5. (U) The first in a series of weekly televised debates 
between independence and union sides was carried April 10 
on Montenegro public television (TVCG1). The first two-hour 
discussion was between PM Djukanovic and SDP leader Ranko 
Krivokapic for independence, and Bulatovic and NS party 
leader Predrag Popovic for union.  The debate was held 
without excessive tension, although Bulatovic and Popovic 
focused more on the alleged corruption affecting the GoM 
and on Djukaknovic than on the benefits of staying in Union 
with Serbia.  Their attacks led Djukanovic to riposte 
 
BELGRADE 00000575  002 OF 002 
 
 
whether they would tell their voters to support 
independence if he were to resign as PM. A poll conducted 
by an local NGO showed that 80 percent of Montenegro 
watched the debate, and 67.5 percent came away with a 
favorable impression of the pro-Independence bloc, compared 
to only 17.5 percent with a favorable impression of the 
pro-Union bloc (respondents could answer that they had a 
favorable impression of both blocs).  Djukanovic left the 
strongest impression (51.5 percent); Bulatovic the weakest 
(8.1 percent). The series will run through the May 21 vote, 
with varying participants. 
 
Charges over "Zeta Film" 
------------------------ 
 
¶6. (U) The prosecutor responsible for the "Zeta Film" case 
(ref), involving the purported buying of votes by the DPS, 
caught secretly on film, has recommended that charges be 
brought against the participants.  The two DPS activists 
and the suspended policeman will be charged with violating 
the freedom of voting and causing disorder. Maximum 
sentence is three years imprisonment. 
 
POLT