VZCZCXRO2543
RR RUEHAG RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN RUEHLZ
RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHBW #0530/01 0950652
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 050652Z APR 06
FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8313
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000530 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL MW SR
SUBJECT: MONTENEGRIN INDEPEDENCE REFERENDUM: LARGE EX-PAT 
VOTE EXPECTED 
 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - PLEASE HANDLE ACCORDINGLY 
 
Ref: A) Belgrade 489 B) Belgrade 521 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: Up to 70 percent of Montenegro's 20,000 
ex patria voters are expected to return for the referendum 
vote, with twice as many supporting independence as union. 
The "Zeta film" of alleged vote buying by the GoM is fading 
from attention, despite opposition efforts to keep it in 
the limelight.  The GoM is consolidating already strong 
minority support for independence by promising passage of a 
new Law on Minorities by April 30 (details Ref B). 
Distribution of campaign moneys has been delayed by a 
dispute over the mandate of the finance committee. 
Ambassador Polt's call for a fair referendum campaign got 
wide coverage. OSCE/ODHIR has started its long-term 
observation of the referendum, with plans for regular 
briefings of the public and diplomatic corps.  End summary. 
 
Return of the Prodigals? 
------------------------ 
 
¶2. (U) The Union of Montenegrin Associations in Europe 
(SCAE) told local press that about 20,000 Montenegrin 
voters live abroad, out of a total of 470,000 voters (3000 
names were added to the rolls in March).  Most of the 
expatriates live in Europe and the USA.  The pro- 
independence bloc calculates on getting 8 to 10 thousand 
ex-pat votes, while the pro-Union bloc foresees only 2 to 4 
thousand votes from abroad.  Ex-pat voters must be 
physically present at their place of registration to vote. 
 
"Zeta Film" Fading 
------------------ 
 
¶3. (SBU) The pro-Union parties are increasingly dismayed by 
the dismissive public reaction to their March 23 release of 
a "secret" film which purportedly depicts vote buying by 
the Democratic Party of Socialists - DPS (main GoM party). 
The opposition complains that more attention has been paid 
to how the film was made (by a discharged police officer 
who was suspended after allegations that he faked his 
university degree), edited, and distributed (by the 
opposition to the press), than to the purported vote buying 
depicted.  Having failed to gain traction with the public, 
SNP and two smaller opposition parties (NS and DSS) are 
threatening to "withdraw" from the vote, and calling for 
the EU to intervene.  When the Montenegrin Referendum 
Commission predictably deadlocked on the film, commission 
head Slovak Ambassador Lipka said he would not use his vote 
to break the deadlock. Lipka, the U.S. Consulate and the 
head of the new OSCE/ODHIR mission, Jorgen Grunnet, all 
said publicly that investigating the "Zeta film" was under 
the competence of the relevant Montenegrin authorities, 
Lipka and Grunnet specifically citing the State Prosecutor 
(Ref A).  EU HR Solana's spokesperson had no comment. 
 
Campaign Money Distributed a Month Late 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) Late on April 3, the finance committee finally 
agreed on its rules of procedure. The rules were to be 
agreed by March 5, three days after adopting the law on 
referendum.  The distribution of two million Euros in 
campaign financing (1 million per bloc) was held up until 
the rules were agreed, resulting in the noticeable quiet in 
the first 30 days of the 75 day campaign period.  The pro- 
Union bloc is expected to complain, although the delay was 
primarily caused by the opposition's demand that the 
finance committee be empowered to look at all financial 
expenditures that might affect the vote, such as a recently 
declared tax holiday on car transfers, and electricity 
bills (see the "Zeta film" allegations, Ref A), and not 
just campaign financing as such. 
 
Ambassador Polt Calls for Fair Referendum Campaign 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
¶5. (U) Ambassador Polt, in a statement given wide coverage 
by the Serbian and Montenegro media, called on both sides 
in the Montenegrin referendum process to campaign in a fair 
and transparent manner, abiding by an ethical code they 
agreed upon. The decision on Montenegro's future status is 
to be "whatever the Montenegrin people decide," the media 
quotes Ambassador Polt. 
 
Growing Support in Serbia for Media Code of Conduct 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
 
BELGRADE 00000530  002 OF 002 
 
 
¶6. (U) Head of the pro-Union bloc, Predrag Bulatovic (SNP) 
and the Independent Association of Journalists of Serbia 
last week called upon all media in Serbia to sign the 
voluntary code of conduct for the referendum. So far, 8 of 
21 Serbian media outlets widely available in Montenegro 
have signed, including Radio-Television Serbia (RTS). 
Ironically, Bulatovic's call to the journalists to sign 
occurred at the same time his party became the last hold- 
out not to sign a similar code of conduct for political 
parties. 
 
OSCE/ODHIR Opens Mission 
------------------------ 
 
¶7. (SBU) The OSCE/ODHIR monitoring mission has opened its 
offices in Podgorica, headed by Jorgen Grunnet (Denmark). 
The long-term observation team of 20 members arrives the 
week of April 3.  In a briefing for the local diplomatic 
corps April 3, Grunnet said ODHIR plans two public interim 
reports before May 21, and regular private briefings for 
the diplomatic corps - we have proposed that the latter be 
at least bi-weekly.  ODHIR said three parliamentary 
delegations are coming to observe the election, plus what 
ODHIR said was "a number" from the U.S. Congress.  The 
organizations plan a joint press conference for Monday May 
22 on the referendum results. 
 
The Day After, Continued 
------------------------ 
 
¶8. (SBU) EU Envoy Lajcak told a local news agency that the 
GoS does not want to talk directly to the GoM about 
relations after the referendum, and that while they should 
find some other way to communicate, he was not the 
negotiator between the two republics. 
 
POLT