VZCZCXRO0225
RR RUEHAG RUEHDA RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN RUEHLZ
RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHBW #0521/01 0931044
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 031044Z APR 06
FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8303
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 000521 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL MW SR
SUBJECT: MONTENEGRIN INDEPEDENCE REFERENDUM: MINORITY LAW 
FOR MINORITY SUPPORT 
 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - PLEASE HANDLE ACCORDINGLY 
 
Ref: Belgrade 489 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: The Bosniac-Muslim and most Albanian 
parties have joined the pro-Independence bloc (ref).  The 
ethnic groups represent 15 percent and 7 percent of the 
population respectively. In poloff's meetings with the 
Democratic Union of Albanians (DUA), the Bosniak Party 
(BP), and the Democratic Community of Muslims-Bosniacs in 
Montenegro (DZMB-CG), a clear quid pro quo arose: passage 
of a new Law on Minorities by April 30 in return for 
minority support for independence.  The law's provision of 
quota seats for ethnic parties has been questioned by the 
Council of Europe.  End Summary. 
 
Solidifying Minority Support for Independence 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) Opinion polls and past election results indicate a 
strong sympathy for Montenegrin independence among 
minorities, including Muslims, Bosniacs, Albanians and 
Croats.  However, past actions by the ruling Democratic 
Party of Socialists against the (nominally civic but 
Bosniac/Muslim-rooted) Party of Democratic Action (SDA) 
starting in 1997 placed their support at risk, as did the 
contentious issue of the city status of Tuzi, an ethnically 
Albanian suburb of the capital of Podgorica. With the pro- 
Independence and pro-Union blocs required to declare their 
composition to qualify for state campaign funding, the 
blocs began to court the minority parties. 
 
The Pro-Union Bloc Offer Comes up Short 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) The Bosniak Party (BP) was explicit about the 
offer they received from Predrag Bulatovic of the pro-Union 
Socialist People's Party (SNP).  Speaking with poloff March 
29 in BP's headquarters in Rozaje in northern Montenegro, 
party president Rafet Husovic, said Bulatovic told them he 
could offer them nothing now, but a future SNP-led GoM 
would give the BP one ministerial seat, and support for the 
minister later standing for a seat in the republic 
parliament. 
 
The Pro-Independence Bloc Offers Seats, Now 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) Conversely, PM Djukanovic was more forthcoming. As 
confirmed to poloff by Ferhat Dinosa of with the Democratic 
Union of Albanians (DUA) on March 16, by Husovic, and by 
party president Rifat Veskovic of the Democratic Community 
of Muslims-Bosniacs in Montenegro (DZMB-CG) on March 29 in 
Bijelo Polje, the GoM has promised a new Law on Minorities 
by April 30.  The new Law creates eight set-aside seats for 
minorities. Unlike the present law, which has four set- 
aside seats only for Albanians, and which can be held by 
civic (non-ethnic) parties like the DPS, the new seats can 
only by held by "authentic" representatives: members of 
ethnic parties -- like DUA (which now has one seat), or 
DZMB or BP, which now have none.  Under the law's formula, 
the Croatian minority (whose Croatian Civic Initiative is a 
member of the pro-Independence bloc) will get one seat, 
Muslims will get one, Bosniaks will get two, and Albanians 
four (two as an ethnic minority, two as a linguistic 
minority). Local Council of Europe office head Vlade 
Ristovski told us March 23 that the CoE disapproved of the 
law's set-aside provisions, but has not been given by the 
GoM a formal role in reviewing the bill, nor would the CoE 
move to block its passage. 
 
... and After the Referendum, a New Constitution 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
¶5. (SBU) The Vice-President of the Bosniak National Council 
in Serbia and Montenegro (BNC), Dr. Amer Halilovic, told 
poloff March 29 in Rozaje that the GoM has yet to complete 
the legal framework to protect minorities, especially 
Bosniaks.  He expects that after the referendum, a new 
constitution explicitly recognize Bosniaks as a 
"constitutive people" on Montenegro, setting the stage for 
greater participation of Bosniaks in the government and 
administration, at all levels and in all sectors, to 
include police and judiciary.  The BNC, BP, DZMB-CG, DUA, 
and the Democratic Alliance of Montenegro (DSCG, an 
ethnically Albanian with one parliamentary seat), all share 
a desire to see a bicameral parliament after independence, 
with the new house being a "house of peoples" on the 
Bosnian model in the 1995 Dayton agreement.  The Bosniaks 
 
BELGRADE 00000521  002 OF 002 
 
 
and Muslims convey, however, a sharper interest in the 
House of Peoples than do the Albanian parties, and see 
their exclusion from a proportional share of representation 
in government as more critical. 
 
A Seamless Border in the Sandzak 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) Halilovic was clear that while, like most 
Bosniacs, sees the Sandzak (lying across the boundary 
between Serbia and Montenegro) as one region, he was 
decidedly pro-Independence. He strongly welcomed the 
involvement of the international community in referendum 
preparations, saying he was "much more at ease," now, and 
that only "awful results" happened when people in the 
former Yugoslavia were allowed "to decide things on their 
own - with the worst results for Bosniacs." He welcomed 
poloff's description of the USG vision for the future of 
the boundary/border between Serbia and Montenegro, no 
matter the outcome of the referendum: an EU-style border, 
with no police posts, guard shacks or customs houses. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) While individual votes will vary, it appears the 
pro-Independence bloc has clearly won the minority 
establishment to its side, despite a rocky past.  With no 
ethnic group having a majority in Montenegro, the DPS and 
Djukanovic's success bodes well for their chances in the 
referendum.  End comment. 
 
POLT