This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

C O N F I D E N T I A L BANGKOK 002391 
 
SIPDIS 
 
C O R R E C T E D  C O P Y - DATES CHANGED IN PARA 1 AND PARA 5 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/24/2016 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM TH SNAP
SUBJECT: INCHING TOWARD A PARLIAMENT 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Susan M. Sutton 1.4 (b) (d) 
 
¶1.  (C) SUMMARY:  The April 23 "rerun" of the elections for 
MP gave 17 more seats to the ruling Thai Rak Thai party, 9 
seats to "microparties" and left 13 seats unfilled when 
single candidates did not meet the 20 percent minimum.  In 
one constituency, voting could not be held when the election 
commission refused to work (reftel); results of the delayed 
vote are expected by tomorrow.  The key to winning was to 
have an opponent - only 5 candidates running unopposed got 
more than the 20 percent minimum.  The Election Commission 
has announced one more round of voting on April 29, and is 
permitting new candidates to register on April 26 and 27. 
Depending on how many more microparty candidates come out of 
the woodwork, the EC may be able to whittle down the number 
of empty seats still further.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2.  (C) After another grueling round of elections, there are 
still 13 unfilled seats in the Parliament.  (All results are 
based on press reports, since the EC has not announced 
official results, but the numbers are probably basically 
correct).  TRT picked up 17 more seats. This included two 
re-runs in the central part of the country; in both of these 
districts, TRT narrowly outpolled the "no" vote. In 5 
constituencies where it was running unopposed, including 4 in 
the South, TRT got past the twenty percent minimum (just 
barely in several cases) although it did not outpoll "no 
vote" plus spoiled ballots.  In the other constituencies, TRT 
had opponents and so was able to win, but in many cases, with 
low support.  In Phukhet, for example, TRT won with 8,000 
votes, but there were 30,000 "no votes."  In Songkhla, TRT 
won one seat with 8,600 votes vs. 50,000 "no votes."  The key 
to winning was to have an opponent, and thus evade the 20 
percent minimum. 
 
¶3. (C) The new parliament will also have an opposition.  9 
microparties won seats in the second round, including all the 
constituencies in Krabi and one seat each in Phetchaburi and 
Prachuab Khiri Khan (the most northerly southern provinces.) 
The Phlang Prachachon party won 5 seats (in Krabi and Trang); 
The People's Party for Debt Forgiveness won three (in 
Narathiwat, Phetchaburi and Phatthalung) and Prachakon Thai 
won one (in Prachuab).  They will join the one non-TRT member 
to win in the first round, a "Debt Forgiveness" party member 
from Nakhon Si Thammarat (who got less than 4,000 votes to 
beat a TRT opponent.)  The other parties' platforms are not 
well-known yet, but the earlier winner from the "Debt 
Forgiveness" party told the press that he wanted the 
government to stop funding megaprojects and use the money to 
pay off rural debt instead. 
 
¶4. (C)  This leaves 13 unfilled seats in the southern 
provinces.  TRT has taken taken most of the seats in the far 
south (Narathiwat, Yala and Songkhla) in almost every case by 
beating a microparty opponent.  Two seats in Pattani will be 
contested in the next round, with the rest of the 13 
scattered around the South. 
 
¶5. (C) The Election Commission announced Monday evening that 
it would hold a final round of votes on Saturday April 29, and 
it would re-open registration for new candidates on Wednesday 
and Thursday.  This last stroke from the EC might enable it 
to fill all or almost all the constituency seats.  There will 
be almost no time for challenges to these candidates before 
Sunday's vote.  Even if the microparty candidates are later 
disqualified, as hundreds of would-be candidates have been so 
far, it may not matter much. Once the vote if over and the EC 
has certified the results, the parliament can be seated and 
proceed with business.  Even if a candidate is subsequently 
disqualified, the worst likely result is a by-election, 
conducted safely after the Parliament is in session.  The new 
parliament will still come up short, as TRT won all the party 
list seats, but is one person short of the 100 required, 
after one candidate joined the monkhood.  The Constitutional 
Court will probably still have to rule on the opening of the 
truncated parliament, but the fewer the vacant seats, the 
more palatable it will be to allow the Parliament to open. 
 
ARVIZU