This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGKOK 002124 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/10/2016 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM TH SNAP
SUBJECT: THAILAND POLITICAL UPDATE - RESULTS, RESULTS, COME 
AND GET THEM! 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Susan M. Sutton reason 1.4 (b) (d) 
 
¶1. (C) SUMMARY:  The Election Commission (EC) has not yet 
released official election results, more that one week after 
election day.  The press have carried unofficial results for 
the April 2 elections, declaring the Thai Rak Thai (TRT) 
Party the winner of the party-list candidates and confirming 
that 39 constituencies would hold by-elections on April 23. 
Candidate registrations for this second round of elections 
took place over the weekend, and TRT candidates who failed to 
reach 20% support during the first go will now face opponents 
from other microparties.  There are at least 11 
constituencies in the South in which TRT candidates will run 
unopposed, making it almost impossible for the election to 
have a successful outcome.  Meanwhile, controversies swirl 
over both the April 2 election and the April 23 repeat 
voting. The Democrat Party is crying foul over the 
"mis-positioning" of voting booths, the registration of new 
candidates, and the subsequent "constituency-hopping" by six 
microparties during candidate registration. They and the PAD 
have filed complaints with the Administrative Court and some 
even hope to have the elections annulled.  The Administrative 
Court may announce a decision on registration of additional 
candidates as early as April 12. Altogether, these are 
significant obstacles to the seating of a new Parliament by 
early May.  End Summary. 
 
 
ROUND ONE 
--------- 
 
¶2. (U) The Election Commission has not released official 
election results from the April 2 polling.  Responding to 
repeated inquiries, they have said only that they are 
carefully checking the results.  They have already announced 
the need for a complete re-vote in Samuk Sakhon, a province 
close to Bangkok, where the number of ballots and the number 
of voters do not match,  Scattered press accounts have 
alleged similar discrepancies in other places, but no firm 
information is yet available. 
 
¶3. (U)  In the Thai system, voters cast two ballots, one for 
a constituency race (400 seats), and one for the national 
"party list" (100 seats).  Attention is focused particularly 
on the party list vote, which was seen as the closest measure 
of Thai Rak Thai (TRT) and Thaksin support.  The press 
accounts of the results differ as to the raw numbers, as well 
as showing apparent arithmetic mistakes, as some of the 
numbers do not add up as presented.  On April 6, the press 
carried unofficial results of the party list vote, based on a 
press conference given by an Election Commissioner. Until the 
Election commission provides official results, these are the 
best numbers we have: 
 
PARTY LIST       (millions)        (Percent) 
Total voters       29.16           (64.5 of total eligible 
voters) 
 
TRT Party list     16.20            (55.8) 
"no-vote" votes     9.10            (31) 
Spoiled ballots     1.78            ( 6) 
Other small parties 1.72            ( 5) 
 
(Note: the four elements listed do not total 29.16 million. 
These are presented as reported.) 
 
¶4.  (U) A separate press report, not sourced directly to the 
Election Commission and of unknown origin, gave the following 
results for the constituency race: 
 
CONSTITUENCY            (millions)  (Percent) 
Total voters              28.77     (63.7 percent of total eligible) 
 
TRT Candidates            15.4      (53.5) 
"no-vote"                  9.2      (31.9) 
spoiled ballots            3.5      (12.2) 
 
This source did not list a result for smaller parties, but 
based on the above, we can estimate: 
 
Other small parties   (est.).67     ( 2.3) 
 
ROUND TWO 
--------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) 38 re-votes are required across 16 provinces, mostly 
in the South, but including two in the Central region.  In 
addition to the repeat voting in Samuk Sakhon, one additional 
repeat vote will be held in Nonthaburi because all of its 
candidates were disqualified before the April 2 race.  The 
high number of spoiled ballots is widely reported to reflect 
additional protest votes against the ruling TRT and the PM, 
with many ballots defaced with expressions from the merely 
rude to the outright obscene.  Many were also reportedly left 
blank, perhaps by voters confused by the redesigned ballot, 
which had moved the "no vote" block to a different part of 
the form.  In last year's election, 2.9 percent of the party 
list ballots were spoiled, and 6 percent of the constituency 
-- in each case, less than half of the rate this year. 
 
 
PLEASE DON'T RUN... 
------------------- 
 
¶6. (C) Candidate registrations over the weekend for the 
by-elections closed with 94 candidates running in 39 
constituencies.  As of April 11, there are at least 11 
constituencies in the South having a sole TRT candidate 
running again on April 23.  (Comment:  The number of sole TRT 
candidate constituencies may increase as the week progresses 
as the EC checks each candidate his or her qualifications. 
End Comment.)  Would-be microparty candidates in the southern 
provinces of Songkhla and Phuket were greeted by hoards of 
people outside the local election offices - some kneeling and 
"kowtow-ing" - pleading for them abstain from registering for 
the elections.  While the crowd reportedly succeeded in 
keeping new candidates from registering in four of the 
constituencies in Songkhla, other candidates who did register 
were sent off with verbal abuse from the crowd. 
 
BRING IN THE REFEREES: 
---------------------- 
 
¶7. (C)  There has been remarkably little concern in the 
public about the long delay in the release of official 
election results.  This may be, in part, due to the many 
challenges to the vote and attempts to have the entire 
process either blocked or annulled.   Below are a selection 
of the growing number of cases being brought to the courts 
regarding the election. 
 
RIGHT TO SECRECY 
 
¶8. (U) The Democrat Party (DP) has filed a complaint against 
the EC with the Administrative Court for violating Section 
105 of the Constitution, which guarantees a person the right 
to direct suffrage and secret balloting.  The DP maintains 
that the EC "mis-positioned" the voting booths, enabling the 
election officials to see how a person voted while at the 
booth. (The booths were positioned so that the voter's back 
was to the polling station, rather than having his back to 
the wall.)  One Democrat speculated that the Administrative 
Court might annul the elections over this issue.  (Comment: 
This seems unlikely, but it is getting hard to rule out 
anything in this unprecedented situation.  End Comment.)  The 
EC announced yesterday that it will revert to back to the 
previous arrangement for the April 19 Senate elections. 
Although none of our observers saw anyone monitoring voters, 
the position of the booth clearly permitted such monitoring 
in some places, including a few where even we could see the 
ballot papers being marked. International poll monitoring 
organization ANFREL circulated a video in which the cameras 
clearly recorded the votes of several prominent figures, 
including the PM's wife (no surprise -- she voted for TRT.) 
The People's Alliance for Democracy reportedly is also 
petitioning the Administrative Court calling for the 
elections to be annulled, based on the same shortcomings. 
 
RIGHT TO REGISTER NEW CANDIDATES 
 
¶9. (U) The DP also filed an objection to the Administrative 
Court over the EC's decision to register new candidates for 
the rerun election on April 23.  The DP maintains that this 
decision must be implemented by a royal decree, and not 
simply a order by the EC.  They also claim that the EC cannot 
prepare the re-voting in constituencies before it has even 
announced the results of the initial polling, since it is not 
yet "official" that the revote is needed. The EC claims it 
has the right to order such adjustments in procedure in order 
to have a successful outcome to the polling. 
 
CONSTITUENCY-HOPPING 
 
¶10. (U) The DP found that six of the microparties in twelve 
constituencies "hopped" from their original registered 
constituency on April 2 to another during the candidate 
registrations for the April 23 round.  They claim that the 
candidates "hopped" to constituencies where the TRT party 
candidate would otherwise run unopposed, thus showing that 
they are not real candidates, but are only running to help 
TRT evade the 20 percent rule.  There does not seem to be any 
legal obstacle to this practice, however. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶11. (C)  The troubles faced by this election are not over 
yet. The long delay in announcing results is a source of 
concern, but many may see the results as moot, given 
Thaksin's political "break" and the unclear path forward to 
seating a Parliament resulting from this vote.  Despite the 
opposition suspicions of the EC, it has made a number of 
decisions that ran counter to TRT interests, most importantly 
the disqualification of microparty candidates in many places. 
 However, the EC's efforts to finish the election process, 
one way or another, tend to be seen as benefiting TRT.  The 
Administrative Court is one of the few independent bodies 
that still has any reputation for impartiality, and its 
decisions could have a big impact. The ruling on permitting 
the registration of new candidates may come as soon as April 
 
¶12.  Although we do not believe that the voting booths were 
positioned with the intent to intimidate voters, this simple 
mistake may be one of the shortcomings of the election which 
is easiest to prove and litigate, and therefore most 
damaging. End comment. 
 
BOYCE