VZCZCXRO2152
RR RUEHPA
DE RUEHBP #0401/01 0941925
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 041925Z APR 06
FM AMEMBASSY BAMAKO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5175
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BAMAKO 000401 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF, DRL, INR 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PINR ECON ML
SUBJECT: LEGISLATIVE BY-ELECTIONS LEAVE OPPOSITION PARTIES 
DEFLATED 
 
REF: BAMAKO 00325 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  On Sunday, March 26, Mali celebrated a 
"Day of Democracy" to commemorate the 15th anniversary of 
the 1991 uprising that overthrew former dictator Moussa 
Traore.  In Mopti and Bamako's fifth district, Democracy Day 
coincided with legislative by-elections to fill two vacat 
National Assembly seats.  Regarded as the firs tangible 
test of next year's presidential campaign, many interpreted 
the results in Mopti, together with a remarkably low voter 
turnout in Bamako, as a serious setback for opposition 
leaders hoping to unseat President Amadou Toumani Toure 
(ATT) in 2007.  At an event in Bamako to mark the 1991 
popular uprising, National Assembly President (and principal 
opposition leader) Ibrahim Boubakar Keita (IBK) snubbed the 
Prime Minister, likely out of irritation over his party's 
allegations that government ministers intervened 
inappropriately in the Mopti by-election in the days leading 
up to the vote.  In an extremely critical speech opening the 
National Assembly's April session, IBK decried the state of 
Malian democracy, as evidenced by the low voter turnout for 
the partial elections.  End summary. 
 
-------------------------------------- 
In Mopti, a Vote of Confidence for ATT 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) The March 26 legislative by-elections in ATT's home 
region of Mopti generated particular interest among 
political observers in Mali.  Many believed that a strong 
showing by the opposition Rally for Mali (RPM) on the 
President's home turf would signal trouble for ATT and 
cement RPM leader and National Assembly President Ibrahim 
Boubacar Keita's (IBK) status as a serious presidential 
challenger. 
 
¶3. (U) In Mopti a coalition of 22 parties, including the 
former ruling party, the Alliance for Democracy in Mali 
(ADEMA), lifted the Union for Republic and Democracy (URD) 
to a landslide win over the RPM.  According to official 
results, the URD pulled off a first round victory with over 
74% of the vote.  The RPM was a distant second with less 
than 19%.  The voter turnout rate was 38%.  One newspaper 
summed up the election result and its implications with the 
headline: "ATT Crushes IBK." 
 
¶4. (U) Although the Mopti URD-ADEMA alliance received no 
overt support from ATT or his government, the appearance of 
five of ATT's cabinet Ministers in Mopti just days before 
the March 26 vote triggered a protest by the RPM.  Following 
the vote, the RPM released list of election "irregularities" 
and called on Mali's Constitutional Court to annul the 
results.  Many of the allegations appear to stem from what 
the RPM claims was an unfair electoral intervention by the 
five Ministers who were in Mopti just days before the 
election, ostensibly to celebrate the opening of a local 
cell phone company branch office.  It is extremely unlikely 
that the nine-member Constitutional Court would decide to 
overturn the result given the relative haziness of the RPM's 
fraud allegations and the enormous mandate handed to the 
URD. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
No opposition votes in Mopti, no voters in Bamako 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
¶5. (U) In Bamako, the URD teamed up with the RPM and two 
smaller parties to confront an ADEMA candidate backed by the 
same coalition that had supported the URD in Mopti.  Despite 
widespread press coverage prior to the election, polling 
places in Bamako's fifth district were deserted as the voter 
participation rate slumped to less than 8%.  Voter apathy 
left the URD candidate with 32% and ADEMA with 23%.  A 
second round run-off is scheduled for April 9.  The 
lackluster turnout in Bamako was particularly disappointing 
for opposition leaders who hoped a strong show of support 
would signal that ATT's prospects for re-election in 2007 
were not assured. 
 
¶6. (U) Analysts attributed the low level of voter 
participation in Bamako to a variety of reasons.  Bamako's 
fifth district is one of the city's largest and poorest with 
large numbers of migrants whose ties and interests are with 
other portions of the country.  Many fifth district 
residents may have seen the elections as meaningless given 
high levels of unemployment, poverty and an absence of 
economic opportunities.  Since Deputies elected through the 
by-elections must run again in 2007, the election may have 
 
BAMAKO 00000401  002 OF 002 
 
 
simply failed to pique the interest of many in Bamako. 
Scheduling by-elections to coincide with Mali's Day of 
Democracy also depressed voter participation since much of 
Bamako was mobilized for the Democracy Day celebrations. 
 
¶7. (SBU) Comment:  By-elections are hardly an indicator of 
nationwide political trends, but IBK clearly feels his party 
(and his own presidential ambitions) to be under some 
pressure.  At the March 26 annual commemoration ceremony in 
Bamako of the popular uprising that ousted Malian dictator 
Moussa Traore, IBK was a picture of pique over the alleged 
irregularities in Mopti.  He failed to arrive in time to 
receive President Toure (a sine qua non of Malian protocol), 
and then snubbed the Prime Minister, standing next to him at 
the ceremony for 20 minutes without exchanging a word.  Ten 
days later, in an extremely critical speech opening the 
April session of the National Assembly, IBK decried the 
state of Malian democracy, calling the low turnouts an 
indicator of a government that had lost its way.  With 
presidential and legislative elections a year away, and with 
disappointing results from the two by-elections, IBK has 
clearly decided to move into full campaign mode to salvage 
his own and his party's prospects. 
McCulley