VZCZCXRO7416
PP RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHLA RUEHMRE RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHKB #0543/01 1000536
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 100536Z APR 06
FM AMEMBASSY BAKU
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0097
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RUCNOSC/ORGANIZATION FOR SECURITY COOPERATION IN EUROPE
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
RHMFISS/CDR USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BAKU 000543 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/07/2016 
TAGS: PHUM KDEM PGOV PREL AJ
SUBJECT: MUTED ENTHUSIASM, TROUBLE-FREE PROCESS, MARK 
CAMPAIGN FOR MAY PARLIAMENTARY RERUNS SO FAR 
 
 
Classified By: DCM JASON P. HYLAND FOR REASONS 1.4 B AND D. 
 
¶1. (C) SUMMARY: In marked contrast to six months ago, the 
run-up to Azerbaijan's ten May 13 rerun parliamentary 
elections has been relatively quiet.  Three weeks into the 
campaign and the GOAJ and the 200 candidates appear to be 
quietly preparing for election day by training election 
commissions, preparing finger ink, and strategizing about 
fuller campaigns to be launched in mid-April.  Independent 
NGOs are gearing up to observe the elections, although the 
USG-supported Election Monitoring Commission has not yet been 
registered by the MOJ.  Without the participation of 
high-profile national leaders, the races are taking on a more 
local flavor, an important step toward representative 
democracy.  With 100-150 candidates likely to remain on 
election day, the May reruns present the perfect opportunity 
for the GOAJ to demonstrate its commitment to clean elections 
and for candidates to run local, issue-driven campaigns.  We 
will continue our high-level engagement with the GOAJ to push 
for a very credible election in May and are looking forward 
to a positive result. 
END SUMMARY. 
 
PLETHORA OF CANDIDATES, AGAIN 
----------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) The newly reconstituted opposition bloc Azadliq 
(without former member Musavat Party but with one wing of the 
Azerbaijan National Independence Party (ANIP) and opposition 
leader Lala Shovket) may have chosen to boycott the reruns, 
but that has not stopped interest from almost 200 candidates 
to register for the 10 seats.  Domestic observer 
organizations have all reported that registration went 
smoothly, despite the fact that 22 candidates were denied 
registration.  (From reports, it appears that election 
commissions rejected candidates whose documents were 
incomplete or falsified, as opposed to last year when 
virtually every candidate was registered.)  As of early 
April, however, it appeared that the candidate pool was down 
to 153 (25 of whom are women) as parties close ranks around 
official candidates.  There are currently more than one 
hundred candidates running as independents.  According to 
ruling Yeni Azerbaijan Party officials, the party is running 
six candidates, all from the official list.  (The total 
number of YAP candidates has dropped dramatically the past 
several weeks as the party has enforced discipline over its 
members).  There are currently 11 Musavat candidates running, 
but only seven of these are official candidates; two 
candidates running against official candidates have been 
expelled from the party.  Additionally, there are six 
candidates from Etibar Mammedov's wing of ANIP and various 
candidates running from smaller political parties. 
 
¶3. (SBU) To date we are aware of no incidents in which 
independent candidates have been forced to withdraw.  (This 
was a significant issue during the last few weeks of the 
November election as more than 500 candidates withdrew in the 
remaining days of the campaign).  We will continue to press 
the GOAJ to ensure that all candidates who wish to run are 
allowed to run full campaigns; however, given an average of 
15 candidates per district (at one point one ConEc had 39), 
we expect to see a degree of natural attrition as the 
campaign progresses in earnest later this month. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Missing from the dynamic this time around are the 
big political players who by definition draw interest into a 
campaign.  From Musavat, the only political notable running 
is Arif Hajili, one of the seven opposition leaders convicted 
(and later pardoned) of organizing the 2003 post-election 
demonstrations.  Ilyas Ismayilov, the chairman of Adalat 
(Justice) Party is running again for a western Azerbaijan 
seat.  Otherwise, no national politicians have chosen to bid 
for a seat. 
 
¶5. (SBU) In spite of the lack of big-name candidates, the 
more local nature of the campaign could in fact create more 
dynamic and relevant races that focus more on constituents' 
concerns and less on the national sound bites of the major 
parties.  Through USAID funding, IRI has already trained 50 
independent and party candidates and 100 candidates' 
representatives; NDI is also working on training party 
candidates.  This indicates an interest in learning how to 
run a constructive campaign, although both NDI and IRI assess 
that only some of their trainees are serious.  Last year's 
campaign saw energetic efforts to win over voters in some 
races, particularly in the regions.  Given the heightened 
localization of the reruns, we expect this phenomenon to 
increase and will watch the campaigns closely. 
 
BAKU 00000543  002 OF 003 
 
 
 
ELECTION PROCEDURES MOSTLY ON TRACK 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) Two innovations from November -- exit polling and 
finger inking -- have become part of the permanent political 
landscape.  IRI will conduct exit polling in all ten 
constituencies.  Its staff currently is setting the 
groundwork by recruiting pollsters and putting logistics in 
order; they expect to begin the public rollout shortly.  The 
GOAJ has welcomed this step by the USG and we expect the 
project will proceed even more smoothly than in November. 
The GOAJ has also begun working with IFES to take necessary 
steps for procuring inking supplies and checking all 
administrative boxes.  We have heard some reports that voter 
lists were either posted late or not at all (the deadline for 
posting the lists was March 9).  Checks of precincts in Baku 
indicated voter lists were posted; however, we will watch 
this issue carefully and have already asked the CEC to 
investigate the situation. 
 
¶7. (SBU) The USG along with the international community also 
welcomed the GOAJ's lifting of the ban on foreign-funded NGOs 
to observe the elections as an organization, rather than 
individually.  However, the Election Monitoring Center, which 
receives funding and assistance from NDI, is still waiting 
for its government registration as an NGO from the Ministry 
of Justice.  Given this, EMC has decided not to pursue 
observer registration as an organization with the CEC and 
instead will register all of its observers as individuals, 
following past practices.  The other main observation group, 
Arzu Abdullayeva's Election Coordinating Advisory Council 
(ECAC) plans to launch and register a robust observer mission 
as an organization.  The CEC has already guaranteed us 
organizations and individuals will have no problems 
registering to observe on May 13.  EMC reported that their 
long-term observers just this week received accreditation, 
after having submitted the paperwork more than one month ago. 
 We will continue to watch this issue closely and ask the 
GOAJ to adjudicate its decisions expeditiously and fairly. 
(Based on recent history, we have no reason to expect that 
the CEC delayed the registrations for political reasons). 
 
MUTED CAMPAIGN SEASON BEGINS 
---------------------------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) Despite the high number of candidates and the steps 
the GOAJ has taken to prepare for the May reruns, the 
campaign scene has been fairly quiet.  Musavat has begun its 
door-to-door campaigns, but has told us it will launch a more 
robust campaign effort in mid-April.  Musavat has held a few 
courtyard meetings with voters throughout the country, as 
have some independents, all of which have been conducted 
without incident.  Parties have not requested permission for 
mass demonstrations, although the Azadliq Bloc (boycotting 
the elections) has said it will request permission in April 
or May.  Posters are beginning to go up in the regions as the 
numerous first-time candidates seek name recognition.  EmbOff 
visited one of the Baku ConEcs and reported that only four 
candidates had posters displayed; most of them for the YAP 
candidate.  Voters with whom he spoke knew the four 
candidates who had put up posters but did not appear familiar 
with any of the other candidates. 
 
¶9. (SBU) Despite the slow start, we expect that momentum will 
pick up somewhat as election day draws nearer, but we do not 
expect the frenzy we witnessed last year.  Many parties and 
individual candidates zeroed out their campaign coffers with 
an all-out effort in November.  Therefore, parties and 
candidates have told us they are reserving cash-intensive 
projects for closer to election day to get the most for their 
money.  This also has the added benefit of preserving 
candidates' and voters' stamina, as some constituents seem to 
have election fatigue from last year. 
 
INTERFERENCE LOW TO DATE 
------------------------ 
 
¶10. (C) Perhaps the most positive development is that 
interference on the part of the authorities appears to be low 
to date.  While domestic observer organizations have reported 
isolated, small incidents, these appear to stem from YAP 
efforts to rally around the official candidate or candidates 
promising graft if elected.  The only murmuring of local 
government pressure or use of administrative resources to 
date has come from Jalilabad, one of the notorious regions 
from the November election.  Reports indicate that the ExCom 
is asking other government officials to vote for one of the 
 
BAKU 00000543  003 OF 003 
 
 
independent candidates.  Also of note is that the YAP 
candidate originally declared the winner in a race later 
overturned by the CEC (likely because of the clear USG-funded 
exit poll results) is running in a neighboring district 
governed by the same ExCom.  While we have not heard 
widespread reports about the candidate receiving 
administrative resources this time around, we will follow 
this race closely.  Should instances of official influence 
become more widespread as the campaign begins in earnest, we 
will engage immediately with GOAJ and CEC officials to ensure 
that such incidents are stopped and those responsible are 
punished. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶11. (C) May's ten parliamentary reruns provide an opportunity 
for the GOAJ to run very credible elections.  With little 
threat from national opposition leaders and the chance for 
true independents to win seats, the GOAJ faces a win-win 
situation by allowing these races to go forward from 
beginning to end, unhindered.  We will continue to deliver 
that message to the GOAJ at all levels and are looking 
forward to positive results. 
HARNISH