This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

261326Z Apr 06

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000944 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/24/2016 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM NI THIRDTERM
SUBJECT: NATIONAL ASSEMBLY MEMBERS SEEK SUPPORT AFTER 
CONSTITUTIONAL CHANGE IS DEFEATED 
 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Russell J. Hanks for Reason 1.4 (b) 
and (d) 
 
¶1.   (C)  SUMMARY:  A group of National Assembly members 
opposed to a third term for President Obasanjo argued that 
the constitutional review process now underway has been 
characterized by manipulation and  irregularities but 
predicted efforts to amend the constitution would ultimately 
fail.  They worried that President Obasanjo would attempt to 
hang on in spite of the defeat and said that international 
support would be critical to ensure democratic elections in 
¶2007.  The group visited the U.S. Embassy as part of its 
outreach efforts to visit the G-8 embassies in Abuja as well 
as influence local opinion through the coverage of their 
efforts.  As other Embassy interlocutors claim, this group 
remains fairly confident that the Constitution cannot be 
amended through legal measures but worry about the potential 
for unrest in the aftermath.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2.  (U) A group of National Assembly members opposed to a 
third term for President Obasanjo met on April 24 with 
PolCouns at the request of the group. The members, part of 
the "2007 Movement," argued that the constitutional review 
process has been characterized by manipulation and 
irregularities.   They listed their reasons for opposing a 
third term for President Obasanjo, including their concern 
about rising instability, deteriorating living conditions for 
the average Nigerian and manipulation of government's levers 
by "Obasanjo and his cronies."  The Members represented at 
least three of Nigeria's political zones (Southwest, 
Southeast and Northwest) and the four largest political 
parties (AD, APGA, PDP, ANPP).  In attendance were: Senators 
Saidu Dansadau, Olorunnibe Mamora, Yari Gandi and 
Representatives Aminu Tambuwal, Francis Amadiegwu, Cyril 
Maduabum, Uche Onyeagocha and Femi Gbajabiamila. 
 
¶3.  (C)  The Assembly members predicted that efforts to 
lengthen the tenure of President Obasanjo will ultimately be 
defeated despite the manipulation of the process.  "The 
entire nation is against it," one of the representatives from 
Lagos claimed.  They claimed that 46 Senators opposed the 
amendments (with 38 needed to block the bills) and that 153 
representatives also opposed the term extension efforts (with 
120 needed to block the measure).  The group requested USG 
understanding and support in the period following the vote on 
constitutional change, becasue, they predicted, the Obasanjo 
government will be unwilling to accept defeat. 
 
¶4.  (C) Senator Dansadu said that after the vote the 
political environment would heat up because President 
Obasanjo would employ alternate strategies to extend his stay 
in office.  One strategy, he said, included fomenting more 
instability and declaring a state of emergency to extend his 
term.  Another potential strategy could be the continued 
withholding of funds to the Independent Nigerian Election 
Commission (INEC), thereby preventing the logistical 
preparation for free and fair elections.  Already evident, he 
said, is a clampdown on political opposition and intimidation 
of members opposed to his extension.  He said that members of 
the National Assembly had been promised a "free ticket" for 
re-election if they support the third term.  Another member 
pointed out that this implies a less-than free-and-fair 
election in 2007. 
 
¶5.  (C) The group argued that any blame for political 
shortcomings should rest squarely on the President.  "Part of 
effective leadership requires an orderly succession plan," 
Dansadau said.  Senator Gandi pointed out as well that the 
reforms now underway would continue and could be spearheaded 
by a similarly young and talented group of technocrats. 
"These reforms do not depend on one person," said Senator 
Gandi. 
 
¶6.  (U) Responding to a question, PolCouns explained that the 
USG supported the concept of executive term limits in the 
interest of institutionalizing democracy and opening 
political space.  He pointed out that this allows for new 
leaders to be groomed, it supports the rule of law, and that 
a regular turnover of power ingrains and institutionalizes a 
democratic process.  Press coverage of the visit the 
following day mistakenly attributed the comments to the 
Ambassador (who was in Washington at the time) and said that 
the Ambasador and the USG had called for "regime change." 
Otherwise, the event was covered widely but not prominently. 
 
¶8.  (C)  COMMENT: The visit by the group of anti-third term 
National Assembly members was part of an outreach and 
advocacy campaign but was also aimed at confirming the USG 
position on the third term.  The anti-third term elements in 
the National Assembly are increasingly confident that they 
have the numbers needed to block third term legislation in 
both the House and the Senate.  Like many Nigerians, though, 
these senior politicians were seeking diplomatic support 
should the third term measure fail since they expect turmoil 
to increase in the absence of a clear alternative course of 
action from the President.  And like many other Nigerians, 
they are concerned that that turmoil could provide an excuse 
to delay elections or worse. 
FUREY