VZCZCXRO4669
PP RUEHPA
DE RUEHAB #0369/01 0961540
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 061540Z APR 06
FM AMEMBASSY ABIDJAN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1177
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
RUEHSA/AMEMBASSY PRETORIA 1328
RUEHKI/AMEMBASSY KINSHASA 0296

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABIDJAN 000369 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
KINSHASA PASS TO BRAZZAVILLE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/06/2016 
TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC IV
SUBJECT: COTE D'IVOIRE: THE UPS AND DOWNS OF THE PEACE 
PROCESS 
 
 
Classified By: POL/ECON Jim Wojtasiewicz, Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D). 
 
¶1.  (C) Summary.  As expected, The peace process is going 
through ups and downs.  Pro-Gbagbo militias are threatening 
to take to the streets as they did in January, this time over 
the sequencing of identification vis a vis disarmament. 
Preliminary results indicate that only about 20 percent of 
students in the North passed the recently held examinations. 
President Gbagbo abruptly canceled a cabinet meeting after 
New Forces (FN) leader Soro chaired one the previous day in 
his capacity as acting Prime Minster.  However, the chiefs of 
staff of government and rebel armed forces had a cordial 
though inconclusive meeting, their first since July.  African 
Union President and Congolese President Sassou is visiting 
Abidjan April 6-9.  We can only hope that Sassou's 
intervention will help break the current deadlock over the 
sequencing of identification and disarmament, perhaps by 
persuading the Ivoirians to go forward with both 
simultaneously.  End Summary. 
 
¶2. (C) Perhaps the most discouraging development this week 
was the threat by sanctioned militia leader Eugene Djue to 
repeat in late April the street disturbances of January, when 
pro-Gbagbo militias put up roadblocks all over Abidjan and 
attacked UN installations, unless Prime Minister Banny 
suspends his plan to issue national identification cards 
until the FN disarm.  With the next meeting of the 
International Working Group (IWG) scheduled for April 20, 
Djue undoubtedly also meant to warn the IWG to stay out of 
the debate over the sequencing of identification and 
disarmament.   The thuggish Federation of University and High 
School Students of Cote d'Ivoire (FESCI) threatened to 
heighten its protests against plans by the Minister of Higher 
Education, who is from the opposition RDR (Rally for 
Republicans) party, to reopen the University of Bouake, the 
capital of the rebel-held North.   Young Patriots leader 
Charles Ble Goude announced plans to hold a big pro-Gbagbo 
youth rally next week. 
 
¶3. (C) Another discouraging development was the release of 
preliminary results from the school examinations that were 
recently held in the North for the first time since 2003. 
The results indicate that only about 20 percent of the 
students passed their exams.  Though unfortunate, this is 
perhaps not very surprising.  The school system in the North 
has been limping along with the help of mostly volunteer 
teachers, after the government withdrew most of the regular 
teachers in 2002.  In addition, the students had very little 
time to prepare for the exams.  The announcement was made 
only a week or so before the exams were given, and many 
students had to travel considerable distances to the testing 
centers. 
 
¶4. (C) Also a bit discouraging, though petty, was President 
Gbagbo's abrupt cancellation of a Council of Ministers 
meeting after FN leader Guillaume Soro had chaired a Council 
of Government meeting the previous day.  A Council of 
Government meeting is a cabinet meeting chaired by the Prime 
Minister and attended by the President.  A Council of 
Ministers meeting is a cabinet meeting chaired by the 
President and attended by the Prime Minister.  Soro, number 
two in the government, chaired this week's Council of 
Government meeting when Prime Minister Banny fell ill. 
Gbagbo apparently did not want to chair a Council of 
Ministers meeting the next day with Soro attending as acting 
Prime Minister. 
 
¶5. (SBU) On the positive side, General Phillipe Mangou, Chief 
of Staff of the FANCI (Armed Forces of Cote 'Ivoire), and 
General Soumahila Bakayoko, Chief of Staff of the FAFN (Armed 
Forces of the New Forces) met on April 4.  This was their 
first meeting since July 31.  The discussions were reportedly 
cordial though inconclusive.  Bakayoko tabled a 19-point FAFN 
plan for the successful completion of disarmament and the 
reintegration and restructuring of the armed forces.  The 
plan calls for the Prime Minister to issue a decree creating 
a structural and legal framework for these 
military-to-military talks to continue.  The plan also calls 
for the creation of a combined joint command, identification 
"of the population and combatants," dismantling of both the 
pro-Gbagbo militias and the 4000 "New Recruits" who were 
hired into the defense and security forces from the ranks of 
the militias, and the return of civil administration to the 
north.  It does not go into the sequencing of these steps vis 
a vis disarmament. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Another somewhat encouraging development was the 
announcement that Sassou Nguesso, President of the Republic 
 
ABIDJAN 00000369  002 OF 002 
 
 
of the Congo and current President of the African Union, 
would visit Abidjan this week April 6 -8, to meet with Cote 
d'Ivoire's political leaders as well as to meet with COREP -- 
the committee of local representatives of members of the IWG. 
 
¶7. (C) Comment.  This sequencing issue is a very serious 
obstacle to the peace process, and we can only hope that 
Sassou's intervention will help break the current deadlock. 
At this point the Gbagbo camp is insisting that disarmament 
must come first, while the FN camp is insisting that 
identification must come first.  Perhaps the Ivoirians can be 
persuaded to go forward with both processes simultaneously. 
End Comment. 
Hooks