VZCZCXRO6985
OO RUEHCD RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHLA RUEHMRE RUEHSR
DE RUEHVEN #0113/01 0721523
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 131523Z MAR 06
FM USMISSION USOSCE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3764
INFO RUCNOSC/ORGANIZATION FOR SECURITY COOPERATION IN EUROPE
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK IMMEDIATE 0065

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 USOSCE 000113 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
EUR FOR SCE AND RPM 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/13/2016 
TAGS: PGOV PREL SR YI
SUBJECT: SERBIAN PRESIDENT TADIC LOOKS TO OSCE TO HELP 
ENSURE FREE AND FAIR REFERENDUM IN MONTENEGRO 
 
 
Classified By: Classified by Political Counselor Bruce Connuck for Reas 
(b) and (d). 
 
¶1.  (C) Summary: In a March 10 meeting in Vienna with 
USOSCE Ambassador Finley, Serbian President Boris Tadic 
expressed hope that the OSCE and ODIHR will play a 
prominent role in monitoring the May 21 independence 
referendum in Montenegro.  Tadic said that a majority of 
Serbs favor cooperating with ICTY and predicted that Serbia 
will deliver Ratko Mladic within thirty days to The Hague. 
Tadic warned that independence for Kosovo could result in 
the emergence of a Radical government in Belgrade, and 
derail stability and democracy in the western Balkans and 
Serbia's path to Euro-Atlantic integration. 
 
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Serbia Will Deliver Mladic by April 10 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (C) Tadic used the occasion of a March 9-10 bilateral 
visit to Austria to request a meeting with Ambassador 
Finley, who he had met previously and most recently in 
Washington shortly following his inauguration as president 
in July 2004.  Tadic began the meeting by predicting that 
Serbia will deliver ICTY-indicted war criminal Ratko Mladic 
to The Hague within thirty days.  While he could not say 
with certainty if Mladic is hiding in Serbia or outside its 
borders, Tadic is encouraging collaboration between the 
armed forces and the police to apprehend him.  In any case, 
Tadic said, Mladic's apprehension is now merely a 
"technical problem," as sixty percent of the Serbian public 
currently favors cooperation with ICTY.  He added that 
seventy percent favor EU membership, sixty percent support 
membership in NATO's Partnership-for-Peace, while forty 
percent even favor outright membership in NATO.  These 
figures in support of Euro-Atlantic integration are 
remarkable, Tadic argued, given the fact that NATO bombs 
were falling on Serbia only six years ago. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
ODIHR Needed to Keep Montenegro Government Honest 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
¶3.  (C) Switching to Montenegro, Tadic appealed for the 
OSCE and its Office of Democratic Institutions and Human 
Rights (ODIHR) to play a significant role in ensuring that 
Montenegro's independence referendum is conducted in a free 
and fair fashion.  ODIHR monitors need to deploy at once, 
Tadic continued, to monitor the run-up to the actual vote 
on May 21.  Tadic's Senior Advisor, Vuk Jeremic, reported 
rumors that the Montenegrin government is buying voter 
identification cards from opposition supporters at the rate 
of 500 euro per voter, to keep opposition voter turnout 
low.  ODIHR should not be hesitant to speak out on this and 
any other abuses it might uncover.  In the event of a close 
vote, Tadic stressed that there should be no "rounding up" 
of numbers to meet the 55 percent super-majority threshold 
necessary for the referendum to pass. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Ambassador Finley assured Tadic that the OSCE and 
ODIHR have already set the ball in motion to send a robust 
observation mission to monitor the referendum.  USOSCE 
poloff added that ODIHR expects to deploy twenty long-term 
observers by the end of March, and at least 200 short-term 
observers to monitor the actual referendum on May 21. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
Independence for Kosovo Threatens Balkan Stability 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
¶5.  (C) Turning to Kosovo, Tadic urged the U.S. and its 
Contact Group partners to look at the issue of its future 
status from the "larger perspective."   Independence for 
Kosovo, Tadic argued, can only have serious negative 
consequences for Serbia as well as Kosovo's minority 
Serbian population, which is "fighting for survival." 
Independence for Kosovo, Tadic implied, would bring with it 
a day of reckoning, in which Serbian voters would turn 
their backs on the country's more moderate parties in favor 
of the Radicals, who were not interested in continuing down 
the path towards European integration.  Tadic even implied 
that he might share the fate of President Djindjic (whom he 
referred to as "my older brother,") who was assassinated in 
¶2003.  Senior Advisor Jeremic appealed for U.S. political 
support, claiming that the EU is suffering from 
"enlargement fatigue, and cannot offer us anything." 
Ambassador Finley ended the meeting by advising Tadic to 
engage constructively in the future status talks and 
assuring him that the United States will continue to 
 
USOSCE 00000113  002 OF 002 
 
 
support moderate voices such as his. 
 
CONNUCK