VZCZCXRO5271
PP RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHIHL RUEHKUK RUEHMOS
DE RUEHTL #0294/01 0880748
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 290748Z MAR 06
FM AMEMBASSY TALLINN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8399
INFO RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUCNRAQ/IRAQ COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL PRIORITY 0014

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TALLINN 000294 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/27/2016 
TAGS: PREL ETRD CVIS BY UP EN
SUBJECT: COMMERCE DEPUTY SECRETARY SAMPSON'S AND EUR 
ASSISTANT SECRETARY FRIED'S MEETING WITH ESTONIAN FOREIGN 
MINISTER PAET 
 
 
Classified By: DCM - Jeff Goldstein 
Reasons 1.5 (b) & (d) 
 
SUMMARY 
 ------- 
 
¶1.  (C)  Noting that Estonia would have to decide this fall 
on the future of its troop deployment in Iraq, Foreign 
Minister Urmas Paet asked visiting Deputy Secretary of 
Commerce David Sampson and Assistant Secretary of State Dan 
Fried how long the U.S. believes coalition forces will be 
necessary in Iraq.  Fried responded that the U.S. is careful 
to avoid deadlines, but that the way out in Iraq was the way 
forward, through progress in the political process and the 
development of a stronger Iraqi military.  Fried and Sampson 
urged the Estonians to share their experience, both in reform 
and in dealing with Moscow, with emerging democracies such as 
Georgia, noting that the Georgians need the advice. The three 
agreed on the need for a realistic approach to Russia, 
although Paet noted that as far as Estonian-Russian relations 
are concerned it takes two to tango, and the Russians don't 
seem to be in the mood to dance.  Paet put in a pitch for 
progress toward Estonia's inclusion in the Visa Waiver 
Program and indicated very clearly that the Estonian 
government would like for President Bush to stop in Tallinn, 
possibly on the margins of this year's G-8 or NATO summits, 
both of which will take place nearby.  END SUMMARY 
 
¶2.  (U)  On the margins of the state funeral of President 
Lennart Meri, Estonian Foreign Minister Paet hosted a meeting 
with the U.S. delegation: Commerce Deputy Secretary David 
Sampson, EUR Assistant Secretary Dan Fried, and Ambassador 
Wos.  Paet began by graciously expressing his government's 
appreciation for the fact that President Bush had sent a 
delegation to the funeral, noting that ours was the only 
high-level delegation to come from outside of Europe. Paet 
and the U.S. delegation went on to discuss a series of 
issues, including Iraq, Afghanistan, Ukraine, Belarus, 
Russia, Georgia, US-EU relations, the Visa Waiver Program, 
and the Estonians' hope that President Bush will be able to 
visit Tallinn this year. 
 
GWOT ISSUES 
----------- 
 
¶3.  (C)  Deputy Secretary Sampson expressed deep appreciation 
for Estonia's support in the Global War on Terrorism. 
Assistant Secretary Fried seconded this, noting that in 
sending troops to the UK PRT in Helmand, which would be in 
the thick of the anti-poppy campaign, the Estonians were 
undertaking a tough assignment.  Paet responded that the 
decision to increase Estonia's presence in Afghanistan from 
20 soldiers to 120 was a big step for the country.  He noted 
that the parliament has extended the mandate for the Estonian 
deployment to Iraq until the end of this year.  This fall, 
Estonia will have to debate next steps, and much will depend 
on the UN mandate, the situation on the ground in Iraq, and 
the plans of the United States and other leading allies.  He 
asked how long the U.S. believed the presence of the 
multinational forces in Iraq would be necessary.  A/S Fried 
responded that the U.S. has been careful to avoid setting any 
deadlines.  The way forward is clear.  As the political track 
develops -- with the next step the formation, we hope, of a 
national unity government -- and the Iraqi military becomes 
more capable, then the size and the role of the coalition 
forces can be changed.  The way out is the way forward, 
through success, not cutting and running.  Success must be 
political, and this is why the U.S. is working so hard to 
help the Iraqis form a new government. 
 
THE NEIGHBORHOOD 
---------------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU)  On Belarus, A/S Fried and Minister Paet agreed 
that the next step should be sanctions targeted against key 
Belarusian political leaders. Paet noted with regret that he 
had recently read that Lukashenko had taken his family skiing 
in one EU country.  Fried, agreed that this was regrettable 
and astonishing, stating that the interests of a country's 
banking sector should not outweigh the need for the U.S. and 
the EU to take a principled stand against leaders who in 
today's Europe still throw their opponents into jail.  Fried 
noted that change in Belarus will take time, but that 
meanwhile we need to make our position clear. 
 
¶5.  (SBU)  Paet noted that he had just spoken with the Deputy 
Foreign Minister of Ukraine, and that Estonia was keenly 
interested in the outcome of the Ukrainian election and the 
question of what direction Ukraine would now take. A/S Fried 
 
TALLINN 00000294  002 OF 003 
 
 
said that, while the U.S. would work with whatever government 
the Ukrainian people choose, we hoped that the next 
government would be "a coalition of the orangish variety." 
It is possible, Fried added, that the Party of Regions could 
reform itself, but he was not yet convinced that this had yet 
happened. 
 
¶6.  (SBU)  Bringing the discussion around to Russia, A/S 
Fried noted that the two paragraphs devoted to Russia in the 
new U.S. National Security Strategy were very clear.  The 
U.S. is concerned about the state of democracy in Russia and 
Russia's relations with its neighbors, almost all of which 
are complicated.  Paet said that Estonia appreciates the 
realistic U.S. approach to Russia and is trying to take a 
similar approach in its own relations with Moscow. 
Unfortunately, "it takes two to tango," and the Russian side 
does not seem to be interested in moving forward 
constructively.  Coming back to Russia later in the 
discussion, A/S Fried noted that the G-8 summit will be a 
real challenge for Putin, who will have to decide what kind 
of Russia he wants to show the world.  He concluded by saying 
that we will work with Russia where we can and as much as we 
can, but we will also push back wherever necessary. 
 
¶7.  (C)  Deputy Secretary Sampson noted that Estonia's 
history and the legacy of President Meri give the country 
important moral authority and urged Estonia to work closely 
to help other emerging democracies.  Fried noted that during 
a recent visit to Georgia he told President Saakashvili that 
today Georgia is in the same position that Estonia and Latvia 
were in 10 years ago, directly in the focus of Russia's ire. 
He advised the Georgians to do the same thing the Estonians 
and Latvians had done: refuse to be baited and proceed with 
reforms.  The Estonians need to work with the Georgians, who 
need Estonia's advice.  Saakashvili does, and so does the 
Minister of Defense, who sometimes is too enthusiastic about 
resolving the South Ossetia situation through military means, 
which would be a disaster. 
 
ECONOMIC ISSUES 
--------------- 
 
¶8.  (SBU)  Deputy Secretary Sampson expressed admiration for 
the "astonishing" economic success Estonia has produced over 
the last 15 years.  He indicated that the U.S. wants to build 
on our current economic and commercial relations, and 
promised that the Department of Commerce would be represented 
at a high-level at a Baltic investment conference being held 
in Riga this May.  When the discussion turned to U.S.-EU 
economic relations, Paet said that while there are elements 
of competition in the relationship, he believes that China 
and India, not the U.S., are Europe's main competitors.  He 
express the hope that this view would drive policy 
development in Brussels.  Secretary Sampson noted that the 
U.S. is working closely with the EU, and believes there is a 
great deal of room for cooperative efforts, such as a joint 
attempt to deal with IPR problems in third countries.  He 
urged the Estonians to stand up strongly for such cooperation 
in Brussels. 
 
BILATERAL ISSUES 
---------------- 
 
¶9.  (SBU)  Paet also raised two bilateral issues: the Visa 
Waiver Program (VWP), and the Estonians' desire that 
President Bush visit Tallinn, this year if possible.  On the 
VWP, Paet noted that this was a very emotional issue.  A/S 
Fried responded that the VWP roadmap  shows a clear way 
forward.  The key condition is a refusal rate of under 3% for 
two years running.  There are other conditions as well.  The 
Estonians have made progress, with the refusal rate for 
Estonian citizens now down to single digits.  Fried assured 
Paet that the President pays close attention to this issue, 
and added that he personally believes it would be good for a 
Central European country to make it into the VWP to 
demonstrate that it can be done.  Estonia might be first, but 
this would depend to a large extent on the Estonians 
themselves. 
 
¶10.  (SBU)  Regarding a presidential visit, Paet noted that 
President Bush's speech in Riga last May was very important 
for Estonia.  He pointed out that the President will be back 
in this region twice this year, for the G-8 and NATO summits, 
and said Estonians would like to see him visit Tallinn as 
well.  Without reference to possible timing, Ambassador Fried 
said he would recommend a visit, but that we would have to 
wait and see.  (NOTE:  No sitting U.S. President has visited 
Estonia.) 
 
 
TALLINN 00000294  003 OF 003 
 
 
¶11.  (U)  A/S Fried cleared this message. 
 
WOS