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DE RUEHSV #0100/01 0672325
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 082325Z MAR 06
FM AMEMBASSY SUVA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2958
INFO RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 1163
RUEHPB/AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY 0784
RUEHWL/AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON 0958
RHHJJAA/JICPAC HONOLULU HI
RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SUVA 000100 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/07/2016 
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON TN
SUBJECT: TONGA: GRASSROOTS DEMOCRACY CONSULTATIONS MAKE 
PROGRESS; REQUESTS FOR U.S. AID 
 
REF: A. 05 SUVA 613 
 
     ¶B. SUVA 97 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Larry Dinger for Reasons 1.5 (b) and (d) 
 
Summary 
------- 
¶1. (C) The National Committee tasked with sounding out 
Tongans' views and aspirations on political reform is on the 
road, making progress.  Members of the Committee are 
currently holding village-level consultations in Vava'u. 
Critics within the pro-democracy movement say the process is 
redundant.  They would prefer that proposed constitutional 
changes go to a popular referendum ASAP.  Committee chairman, 
Prince Tu'ipelehake, reports the consultations thus far have 
revealed a wide spectrum of views, from wanting significant 
systemic change to advocating continued support for the 
monarchy.  The Committee is beginning media outreach to keep 
the nation informed of the consultation process. 
Disagreements over the Committee's work and recent 
developments in Tonga's political landscape, such as the 
naming of a pro-democracy commoner to acting Prime Minister, 
have highlighted internal differences within the 
pro-democracy camp.  An attempt to resolve a fiscal crisis, 
in part by offering redundancies to public servants, will 
affect politics as well.   See paragraph 9 for Tongan 
suggestions of how the USG can help the reform process.  We 
continue to believe it important for the U.S. to be visibly 
on board.  End Summary. 
 
National Committee under way 
---------------------------- 
¶2. (C) According to Prince Tu'ipelehake, Chairman of Tonga's 
National Committee on Political Reforms, and Sitiveni 
Halapua, a Committee member who also works for Honolulu's 
East-West Center, the Committee is making good progress in 
its village-level consultations to assess attitudes on 
democracy and Tonga's political future.  Tu'ipelehake and 
Halapua came to Nuku'alofa to meet with the Ambassador on 
March 3.  They said that the Committee has spent two and a 
half weeks on Vava'u in the North.  Thus far, it has visited 
28 villages there, with 14 more to go.  The pace clearly must 
accelerate, so Committee members have split into sub-groups 
to cover two villages per day.  After Vava'u and other 
northern districts, Committee members will tackle the south, 
including Tonga'tapu, the largest population center and 
hotbed for reform.  Only four Committee members, including 
Halapua, have devoted full-time to the visits thus far. 
Pro-democracy parliamentarians Akilisi Pohiva and Clive 
Edwards say they may join in when the Committee returns from 
the north.  After canvassing Tonga itself, the Committee 
intends to send delegations to the U.S., New Zealand, and 
Australia, where most Tongan citizens now reside. 
Remittances from that diaspora constitute most of Tonga's 
GNP.  Following the consultations, the Committee must draft a 
report for the King and Parliament, due by September 1. 
 
A mix of views 
-------------- 
¶3. (C) Tu'ipelehake and Halapua reported that the talks have 
revealed a broad mix of views: from democrats wanting a new 
order, to those saying implementation of the present system 
just needs fixing, to full-scale loyalists of the monarchy. 
Some critics suggest turnouts have been light.  Halapua 
stressed that village voices have been sincere and quite 
often sophisticated.  In Vava'u, one of Tonga's most 
conservative regions where loyalty to the royals is probably 
strongest, a significant segment has expressed concern about 
change.  One consistent anxiety is about maintaining current 
land rights, which are bound up with the King's traditional 
roles.  Halapua said a "silent group" in Vava'u is skeptical 
or even hostile to the wave of democratic activism that led 
to the creation of the Committee and is "waiting to see what 
happens."  Halapua suggested that group could pose a threat 
to peaceful political reform. 
 
Committee needs a PD angle 
-------------------------- 
¶4. (C) Tu'ipelehake said he perceives a need for the 
Committee to begin keeping the wider public informed of its 
work.  As a result, on March 3, he and Halapua held a lengthy 
media conference in Nuku'alofa to report on progress thus 
far.  Also, the Committee has invited a local journalist to 
accompany it during its further consultations.  The 
Ambassador noted the importance of transparency and 
information flow in the Committee's work, particularly to 
keep people on Tonga'tapu informed, and he praised the 
decision to increase media outreach. 
 
SUVA 00000100  002 OF 003 
 
 
 
Skeptics remain 
--------------- 
¶5. (C) Critics, including from within the Committee's own 
ranks, continue to question its methods and overall plan. 
Pohiva claims that people's-rep parliamentarians have 
routinely surveyed Tonga's villages during the past twenty 
years.  He sees the Committee's work as duplicative, perhaps 
even a covert attempt to placate the masses and delay 
democratic reforms.  He also complained that Prince 
Tu'ipelehake's presence as Committee chair tends to create a 
stilted, traditional atmosphere at the village consultations, 
which stifles free and open expressions of commoners' views. 
Thus far, Pohiva and Edwards have not participated in Vava'u, 
though they leave open the possibility for their home island, 
Tonga'tapu.  In an address at the University of the South 
Pacific in Suva on March 1, Pohiva predicted a "private bill" 
would be introduced in the May session of Parliament to call 
for an immediate popular referendum on a set of 
constitutional amendments to which Tonga's main pro-democracy 
factions have agreed.  Tu'ipelehake told the Ambassador he 
has already warned Pohiva that the referendum bill would not 
pass. 
 
Economic crisis: being fixed? 
----------------------------- 
¶6. (C) Pohiva predicted to his Suva audience that Tonga's 
precarious economic situation would soon bring down the 
Government (Ref A).  If it pays outstanding salary increases 
promised to public servants, it will be driven into 
bankruptcy.  If it refuses, it would face a renewal of the 
2005 strike by civil servants that brought 
democracy-activists' reform agenda to the fore. 
Interestingly, Tonga Finance Minister Siosiua 'Utoikamanu 
told the Ambassador that, despite the tight fiscal situation, 
Government has found a way out.  In part, the solution 
involves tapping various pockets of unexpended funds.  A 
major aspect is a "voluntary redundancy" package for 1000 
civil servants, a quarter of the total, which would bring a 
one-time cost of T$22 million, but would save nearly that 
much each year thereafter.  Tonga's public-service union has 
already threatened a strike over "redundancy," which it sees 
as contravention of last September's settlement. 
 
What role the commoner as Acting PM? 
------------------------------------ 
¶7. (C) Tu'ipelehake said Crown Prince Tupouto'a's appointment 
of commoner and former "People's Representative" 
parliamentarian Fred Sevele as acting Prime Minister was a 
positive sign. The Crown Prince's views have evolved and he 
is prepared to accept changes to the political order in Tonga 
(see Ref B for further confirmation).  Tu'ipelehake said the 
Crown Prince has supported the committee's work from its 
inception and has instructed government to "embrace" it.  Not 
everyone sees the appointment of Sevele, a "People's 
Representative" until the King made him Minister of Labor, 
Commerce and Industries, in the same light.  Pohiva still has 
confidence in Sevele, but Clive Edwards, a former Police 
Minister and current "People's Representative," said Sevele's 
ministerial roles and his closeness to the Crown Prince have 
raised doubts in the public's mind about his commitment to 
the commoners' cause.  Edwards suggested the Crown Prince is, 
in fact, using Sevele to slow down the process of 
democratization. 
 
Comment 
------- 
¶8. (C) The fact that the National Committee's survey is 
proceeding gives some hope to those wishing a middle course 
between royal reactionism and pro-democracy action in the 
streets.  However, it will be important for the Committee to 
continually demonstrate its viability in the next few months, 
a period which could witness the ailing King's death, or his 
refusal to accept the commoner Sevele as PM, or a return of 
public-service unions to strike action.  The pro-democracy 
movement's constitutional amendments and referendum demand 
also wait in the wings.  For now, though, dissidents like 
Pohiva and Edwards appear willing to see what comes, and even 
to participate in the Committee's consultations from time to 
time.  So long as the current King's views remain 
unannounced, royal buy-in will be questionable, even with the 
Crown Prince's "embrace" of reform.  End comment. 
 
U.S. Role 
--------- 
¶9. (C) The Ambassador discussed with Tu'ipelehake, Halapua, 
Sevele, Pohiva, and Edwards several ways the USG might 
potentially contribute to Tonga's National Committee process. 
 
SUVA 00000100  003 OF 003 
 
 
 
 
-- Australia, New Zealand, and to a small extent the UK have 
already provided funding for the Committee's day-to-day 
program of action.  The USG has contributed indirectly since 
the East-West Center has seconded Halapua to the Committee 
for six months on full pay.  Halapua and Tu'ipelehake both 
noted that Tonga will need more donor assistance a few months 
from now to follow up on any Committee recommendations for a 
reform agenda.  They expressed hope USG funds might be 
available by then. 
 
-- Halapua suggested that the USG cover the costs for the 
Committee's new media position, which was not in the original 
budget.  Given the importance transparency and outreach ought 
to play in the Committee's work, the Ambassador asked the 
Committee for a budget proposal which Washington could 
consider. 
 
-- The Ambassador noted U.S. opinion-polling expertise and a 
wealth of American consultants on democratic-transition 
issues.  Tu'ipelehake and Halapua said the Committee does not 
currently have Western-style opinion-polling on its agenda. 
They implied that an EU offer to fund a referendum is off the 
table altogether.  They did express interest in possibly 
tapping U.S. democracy experts at a later date, after the 
Committee's survey phase concludes and 
recommendation-drafting is under way. 
 
-- Note that, per Ref B, Crown Prince Tupouto'a is interested 
in obtaining internships for a couple of young Tongan print 
journalists with regional U.S. newspapers. 
 
-- Clive Edwards suggested that, as reform unfolds, it would 
be useful for an American "democracy-transition" expert to do 
a public presentation in Tonga on what people should expect 
of their elected representatives in a democracy. 
 
¶10. (C) We continue to believe the USG should be visibly 
supportive of Tonga's political-reform process, and we will 
continue to work with both Washington and Tongans to find 
effective ways to do so.  Funding the National Committee's 
media-relations staffer seems an attractive method, if the 
costs are reasonable.  Sponsoring internships in the U.S. for 
a few young journalists also has appeal, if PD programs can 
assist. 
DINGER