This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

UNCLAS QUEBEC 000033 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV ECON CA
SUBJECT: QUEBEC RELEASES FLU PANDEMIC EMERGENCY PLAN 
 
¶1. Summary:  Provincial Health Minister Philippe Couillard 
unveiled Quebec's Avian Flu strategy at a press conference, 
March 9.  Quebec's plan addresses the protection of public 
health; medical care; psycho-social welfare; communication and 
information; and the functioning of the health system in a 
pandemic situation. It also provides a framework for regional 
and municipal authorities to submit specific local plans.  The 
Health Minister assured Quebeckers that the province is not in a 
pandemic situation but that emergency planning is part of 
responsible government. The high visibility roll-out is only in 
part an indication of GOQ concern over Avian Flu -- it also 
reflects Premier Charest's strategy of raising the profile of 
his government's "success" stories in advance of an election 
which could come early next year.  End summary. 
 
¶2.  Popular Health Minister Philippe Couillard, a physician 
himself, rolled-out Quebec's Avian Flu strategy at a special 
press conference March 9, broadcast live on Quebec's all-news 
television network. In what he called a "critical but plausible" 
Avian Flu pandemic scenario, Couillard estimated that up to 35 
percent of Quebec's 7.7 million inhabitants could potentially 
fall sick in successive waves over an eight to fifteen week 
period. Of these, 1.4 million might require professional help, 
and 34,000 would need hospitalization.  The death toll might 
reach as high as 8,500. 75-80% of Quebecers would need to be 
immunized, requiring 11-14 million doses of vaccine. A vaccine 
could not be developed until the human version of the flu starts 
claiming victims, and a minimum of 3-4 months would be required 
to develop the vaccine, with at least another month to 
administer it. 
 
¶3. To help manage the situation, Quebec officials have already 
been drawing up lists of thousands of retired or inactive staff 
and volunteers from the general population who could be drafted 
to help out in the event of a pandemic.  The Quebec provincial 
plan foresees the recruitment of up to 80,000 people to help 
maintain services.  Couillard cited the SARS episode in pointing 
out the need to prevent health care centers from being 
themselves immobilized from infection, and said alternative care 
centers would be employed. Couillard estimated that an Avian Flu 
pandemic could cost the health system approximately CDN $250 
million.  The economic impact, he acknowledged, would be even 
greater. 
 
¶4.  Couillard emphasized the critical role of the media in a 
pandemic situation in passing on accurate and reliable 
information while steering clear of alarmist scenarios.  He 
cautioned against the propagation of self-proclaimed experts 
giving out erroneous information and he urged the media to 
consult health officials directly for accurate data. Quebec will 
also rely on locally elected officials to clearly communicate 
information to the public in their respective regional 
districts.  Couillard's warning echoed that of the Premier who, 
in a media interview a few days before, highlighted his 
preoccupation with the role of the media if and when confronted 
with an outbreak.  "It is easy to become sensationalist about 
it.  My wish is that the media act in a rigorous way." 
 
¶5. The GOQ roll out and full media coverage are raising public 
awareness of the risk of Avian Flu. Le Soleil editorialized that 
GOQ planning should reassure citizens.  Montreal's La Presse 
also commented positively, devoting two full pages to the GOQ 
plan with the title and subtitle: "Government prepares itself 
for the worst. An initiative welcomed by people working in the 
health sector."  Other Quebec papers also led with the Quebec 
plan and examined the potential shortfalls in antiviral pills 
and protective masks, predictions of infection statistics,and 
the cascading negative economic impact. 
 
¶6.  Comment:  The GOQ is taking the Avian Flu risk seriously. 
In our discussions of Avian Flu with Quebec officials, we have 
been given every indication that the needs of Quebeckers and of 
Americans in Quebec will be responsibly addressed.  Dr. Arthur 
Porter, Director General and Chief Executive Officer at McGill 
University Health Center, told Montreal's CG that his team is 
ready to treat "any potential cases of avian flu," adding that 
symptomatic patients usually stay where they are to be treated 
locally. 
Couillard delivered a confident public message that Quebec's 
health and civil security networks are systematically preparing 
for a possible pandemic outbreak. 
 
¶7. Comment (con't.): Politically, Quebec Premier Charest chose a 
highly visible roll-out of his government's Avian Flu strategy 
only in part because of the importance of the subject matter. 
Charest also is in an election mode, and he has planned a series 
of such policy rollouts in the months to come.  On March 14, he 
will give a major policy speech at the National Assembly, seen 
here as another opportunity for him to set the tone in advance 
of an election. 
 
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