VZCZCXYZ0009
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHNR #1238/01 0761059
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 171059Z MAR 06
FM AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0403
RUEHDS/AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA IMMEDIATE 8314
RUEHDJ/AMEMBASSY DJIBOUTI IMMEDIATE 4041
INFO RUEHXR/RWANDA COLLECTIVE
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 3789

UNCLAS NAIROBI 001238 
 
SIPDIS 
 
AIDAC 
 
DEPT HHS WASHDC 
CDC ATLANTA GA 
USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY 
CJTF HOA PRIORITY 
DEPT OF AGRICULTURE WASHDC PRIORITY 
USDA FAS WASHDC PRIORITY 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF/E, AF/EPS, AF/PD, EB, PRM/AF, IO 
AID FOR A/AID, AA/DCHA, WGARVELINK, LROGERS, MHESS, 
DCHA/OTI, 
DCHA/OFDA FOR GGOTTLIEB, MMARX, IMACNAIRN, KCHANNELL 
DCHA/FFP FOR JDWORKEN, JDRUMMOND, TANDERSON, DNELSON, 
SBRADLEY 
AID/EGAT FOR AA/EGAT, JSCHAFER, JTURK 
AFR/EA FOR JBORNS, SMCCLURE 
ADDIS ABABA FOR TIM STUFFT 
DJIBOUTI FOR JSCHULMAN 
ROME FOR FODAG 
GENEVA FOR NKYLOH 
BRUSSELS FOR PLERNER 
NSC FOR JMELINE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EAID ECON PHUM PREF PREL IGAD CENTCOM KESO
DY, ET 
SUBJECT:  HORN OF AFRICA, STATE - USAID HUMANITARIAN 
UPDATE NUMBER 2 
 
REF:  A) STATE 27057; B) NAIROBI 00968 
 
¶1.  This is the second update cable in response to Ref A 
request for bi-weekly reports on the humanitarian 
situation in the Horn of Africa.   USAID Missions in 
Kenya, Ethiopia, Djibouti, and REDSO/Somalia contributed 
to this report. 
 
REGIONAL REPORTS 
 
¶2.  NAIROBI-BASED REGIONAL MEETINGS 
 
¶A.  REGIONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK FORUM:  The 17th Greater 
Horn of Africa (GHA) Climate Outlook Forum was held in 
Nairobi from March 1-3, organized by the USAID-supported 
Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) 
Climate Prediction and Applications Center (ICPAC).  The 
forum brought together scientists involved in climate 
prediction to develop a forecast for the March to May 
2006 rainfall season in the GHA and to review its 
implications.   The consensus climate forecast is for an 
increased likelihood of near-normal to below-normal 
rainfall over the current drought affected region in the 
Horn of Africa during the March to May 2006 rainy 
season.  The forecast is cause for serious concern, 
especially in southern Somalia where there are logistics 
difficulties in delivering assistance.  The conclusion 
of the forum is that donors must immediately begin 
planning humanitarian assistance responses that are 
based on another failed agriculture season. 
 
¶B.  REGIONAL HORN OF AFRICA MEETINGS:  On March 8, 
UNOCHA held a workshop in Nairobi to develop a regional 
appeal for the drought in the Horn of Africa.  UN, NGO, 
government and donor representatives from Kenya, 
Ethiopia, Somalia, Djibouti, Ethiopia and Eritrea agreed 
that it was necessary to plan not only for just the 
current humanitarian emergency, but to link short term 
emergency interventions with medium and longer term 
plans to address the underlying causes of the crisis. 
The appeal will be regional in nature and will address 
two possible scenarios: 1) scenario of poor or failed 
rains in the March-June rainy season; and 2) scenario of 
good rains during the March-June period.  The draft 
appeal will be circulated among group members within the 
next few weeks, and which we will forward to USAID/W. 
 
¶C.  VISIT OF THE WORLD FOOD PROGRAM (WFP) EXECUTIVE 
DIRECTOR:  Mr. James Morris, the head of WFP, visited 
Kenya on March 2 - 5. U.S. Ambassador William Bellamy 
hosted a lunch for 15 Nairobi-based Chiefs of Mission to 
catalyze attention on the current East Africa drought, 
and generate international assistance.   Mr. Morris 
spoke movingly about the dire situation he saw in El 
Wak, northeast Kenya, describing the animal carcasses 
lining roads, pastoralists arriving on their last camel, 
and the large numbers of destitute people now dependent 
on food aid.  Mr. Morris said the situation was about 
"as bad as it gets" and urged the international 
community to respond. 
 
¶D.  PASTORALIST WORKING GROUP (PWG) activities:  The PWG 
met with FEWSNET, donors, representatives from the 
military civil affairs office on water initiatives, and 
participated in UN and NGO Horn of Africa ongoing 
 
sector-specific meetings.  It has completed a concept 
paper for a regional project to address root causes of 
famine in the Horn of Africa. 
 
COUNTRY REPORTS 
 
¶3.  KENYA 
 
UPDATE ON HUMANITARIAN/DIPLOMATIC FRONT: The enormous 
detrimental effect of the two poor seasons (2005 long- 
rains and short-rains) on livelihoods and household food 
security suggests that households- capacity to cope has 
declined pointing to growing chronic food insecurity. 
Now that the recent Climate Outlook Forum has forecast 
another poor season in northeast Kenya, the humanitarian 
assistance community is preparing for the worst. 
Another poor season in the drought-hit areas will have 
catastrophic consequences on livelihoods and on 
household food insecurity. In addition to the lack of 
rains, limited purchasing power, political 
marginalization (in the pastoralist areas), limited 
livelihood options, and chronic vulnerability are 
exacerbating the effects of the drought in Kenya. 
 
DONOR RESPONSE UPDATE: More recent non-USG pledges 
include $17.4 million from the UK, $6.0 million from the 
EU (ECHO) (earmarked to partially cover in-land 
transport costs of GOK donated food), and $4.4 million 
from Canada and $1.2 million from France.  At present, 
33.4% of the total EMOP food requirement (395,000 MT) 
has been resourced (including the latest 22,090 MT of 
USG donations being processed).  The UK has also 
contributed $1.12 million towards emergency nutrition 
interventions led by UNICEF.  To date the GOK has 
provided 152,984 MT of emergency food valued at $32.5 
million including their latest food contribution of 
60,000 MT in response to the prevailing drought.   In 
addition, the GOK has provided US$27 million for 
transport and associated costs, $5 million for livestock 
off-take and $800,000 for water interventions in 
drought-affected pastoralist districts. Beyond this, 
FFP/W has allocated an additional $25 million to respond 
to the food crisis in Kenya.  The commodity mix for this 
donation is currently being worked out by WFP/Kenya and 
USAID/Kenya. 
 
Following the short rain assessment in February, UNICEF 
appealed for $6.4 million to support emergency 
activities in the nutrition and health sectors. 
Significant internaQonal contributions, including 
$350,000 from OFDA, have subsequently followed and 
UNICEF Kenya's Director reported this week that 
sufficient funding is available for emergency activities 
for the next three months.  UNICEF, in coordination with 
the GOK Ministry of Water, also appealed in February for 
$18.5 million to expand emergency water interventions in 
drought affected areas, including water tankering and 
borehole rehabilitation.  Contributions to date for 
emergency water interventions total $16.5 million, and a 
funding gap of $2 million remains.  OFDA received a 
proposal from UNICEF this week requesting an award to 
fill the remaining gap.  USAID/ Kenya and OFDA/ECARO 
have reviewed the proposal and forwarded it to 
Washington with a recommendation to support. 
 
¶4.  ETHIOPIA 
 
UPDATE ON HUMANITARIAN/DIPLOMATIC FRONT:  A recent visit 
by the Government of Ethiopia's (GOE) Deputy Prime 
Minister (DPM) to Jijiga, the Somali Regional capital, 
sent a loud message: the current drought emergency is a 
front burner issue within the government. 
 
The United Nations Office for the Coordination of 
Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA) has continually pressured 
the GOE's Disaster Preparedness and Prevention Agency 
(DPPA) to hold regular coordination meetings with donors 
and partners.  So far, DPPA has not done so.  UNOCHA is 
planning a coordination meeting next week to fill the 
void. 
 
The Oromiya Regional Government has requested that GOE's 
Disaster Preparedness and Prevention Agency (DPPA) Early 
Warning Working Group (EWWG) reassess the situation in 
Borena zone.  The EWWG Chairperson notes that the 
beneficiary estimates may be too low.  The reassessment 
will start on March 16, with CARE-Ethiopia, WFP, UNOCHA, 
FAO and USAID participating. 
 
On March 10, The Afar Regional Agriculture and Natural 
Resources Bureau and FAO held a meeting in Semera, the 
capital of Afar. Pastoralist Livelihoods Initiative 
(PLI) partners, UN organizations, and local authorities 
participated in the meeting to discuss the early 
migration of Afar pastoralists and the growing concern 
of a worsening drought situation in other parts of Afar 
Region. The participants did not agree on a drought 
response plan; however, joint NGO-Regional Disaster 
Preparedness and Prevention Bureau field assessments 
will be undertaken in the next 2 weeks. 
 
DONOR RESPONSE UPDATE:  In general, there have been few 
new commitments since previous Ref B.  UN Secretary 
General Kofi Annan launched the Central Emergency 
Response Fund (CERF) on March 9. The fund seeks to 
obtain rapid assistance for the humanitarian crisis and 
to respond to neglected emergencies.  $1.8 million 
contribution from the CERF to Ethiopia has been 
allocated to the various UN organizations with $630,000 
going to UNICEF, $350,000 to WHO, and $400,000 to FAO. 
Of the large donors, the European Union has not yet made 
a commitment to the GOE's 2006 Humanitarian Appeal. 
Norway, Oxfam International, and Turkey made the most 
recent commitment of USD 700,000 to the water and 
sanitation request. 
 
WFP PIPELINE AND DONOR RESPONSE UPDATE:  The once 
positive pipeline outlook for 2006 has quickly vanished 
as the food needs for the second half of the year become 
apparent.  The wheat pipeline will now break at the end 
of June with beneficiary numbers expected to increase 
substantially in the second half of the year indicating 
a need for an additional 200,000 MT of food from July- 
December of 2006.  The additional food requirements 
include the predicted needs in pastoral areas from July- 
December, which were not reflected in the original GOE 
humanitarian appeal document. In addition, there 
continues to be a need for additional supplementary food 
for blanket distributions for the Productive Safety Net 
Program in chronically food insecure Woredas. 
 
 
Additional contributions towards the WFP PRRO includes 
EURO 1 million from Italy for local purchase of FAMIX 
and a pending EURO 8 million donation from the EU, which 
WFP will likely borrow against until the pledge is 
finalized in late summer 2006. 
 
UPDATES ON FOOD SECURITY SITUATION AND OUTLOOK:  Drought 
conditions are worsening in existing hot spot zones and 
spreading to new zones.  According to field level 
information and the National Meteorological Agency 
(NMA), rainfall has started (though late by one month) 
in the main belg crop dependent areas but it is too 
early to judge performance at this time.  The 
pastoralist Borena and Guji zones of the Oromiya region 
have also received some showers, which has given some 
false hope as these few showers are not sufficient to 
mitigate the current drought conditions.  The majority 
of Somali Region has not yet received rains in March, 
except for some showers reported in Jijiga.  The NMA 
outlook shows that there is a possibility of rain around 
March 20 in these areas.  Even if we assume tha there 
will be rains, these areas need much more time for 
recovery.  Previous experience shows that rain after 
very long dry spells can actually cause deaths of 
livestock as animals in a weakened state are more 
susceptible to disease and can be compromised by too 
much water intake and by eating unmatured pasture. 
 
The Pastoralist Livelihoods Initiative (PLI) partners 
continue to implement livestock emergency response and 
non-emergency activities. For the emergency response 
through May 2006, they plan to commercially off-take 
134,000 animals, vaccinate 163,000 animals, and feed 
around 20,000 animals. 
 
The arrival of food at distribution sites is still a 
concern and efforts are underway to improve distribution 
information through increased monitoring and through a 
newly developed detailed logistics spreadsheet 
indicating delivery dates and locations.  A WFP-led 
assessment into Liban and Afder zones of the Somali 
Region found that distributions have increased in most 
Woredas, which is a positive sign.  Unfortunately, 
beneficiaries have also increased in these hot spot 
areas.  DPPA continues to work with the Ministry of 
Defense to increase the number of military escorts 
accompanying food aid deliveries. 
 
OTHER TOPICS OF SPECIAL INTEREST:  Cereal prices had 
shown some signs of declines at the beginning of 
February creating some hope that market related 
interventions (government release of grain and the GOE?s 
grain export ban) would decrease prices in a sustainable 
manner.  However, prices continued to increase after 
some signs of stability after the first fifteen days of 
February.  So, despite the interventions and the very 
high GOE crop yield report, the supply of grain 
continues to be very tight and prices continue to 
increase. 
 
¶5. SOMALIA 
 
UPDATE ON HUMANITARIAN/DIPLOMATIC FRONT:  Increased 
population movements have been reported for the last two 
 
weeks in southern Somalia.  The movements are mainly 
towards permanent water sources.  For instance, more 
people have moved from Bay Region to Middle Juba. 
Population movements were also reported from within Bay 
Region, Lower Shabelle and Bakool to Baidoa town.  The 
Somalia Transitional Federal Government (TFG) in Baidoa 
tends to attract more people who are looking for 
employment and social support.  Limited cross border 
population movements into Kenya were also reported in 
Juba valley and the Gedo regions.  Increased livestock 
death especially cattle has been reported in Gedo and 
parts of Juba valley.  This is mainly due to the 
distance between watering points and grazing area, 
coupled with weakened body condition.  Water trucking 
and borehole repair are underway across southern 
Somalia.  Agencies are expected to sign onto common 
guiding principles for water trucking, which are being 
drafted. 
 
DONOR RESPONSE UPDATE:  ECHO has provided 9 million EURO 
for country-wide emergency programs in Somalia this 
fiscal year and has earmarked another 2 million Euro 
from their Regional Drought Emergency Fund for drought 
specific interventions.  Further funding is dependent on 
the outcome of the next rainy season.  OFDA is currently 
processing proposals from several new and current 
implementing partners in southern Somalia for drought 
specific activities in middle Juba, and Bakool Region. 
On food aid for FY 06, the USG has allocated $53 million 
for CARE and WFP.  The UK, Italy and Canada are other 
major food aid donors.  The WFP pipeline is 80% 
resourced through July 2006.  If the rains are poor, it 
is estimated that up to 100,000 MT will be required from 
July through December 2006. 
 
UPDATE ON FOOD SECURITY AND OUTLOOK:  Based on early 
predictions for the upcoming GU rainy season (April- 
June), the FSAU has issued warning that parts of 
Southern Somalia are at high risk of famine/humanitarian 
catastrophe from July to December 2006.  The FSAU 
together with FEWS/NET are asking all stakeholders to 
prepare for a worst-case humanitarian and livelihood 
scenario in southern Somalia.  In northern and central 
region, on-going acute food and livelihood crisis are 
likely to continue, impeding recovery from the previous 
drought two years ago.  There are reports of high human 
mortality during the first two weeks of March in Gedo 
region.  Staff from the FEWSNET Somalia office will be 
traveling this week to verify.  At risk for famine 
populations are estimated to increase from the current 
900,000 to 1.3 million. 
 
OTHER TOPICS OF SPECIAL INTEREST:  Generally cereal 
prices continue to increase, while livestock prices 
decline. Due to shortages, sorghum prices increased 
throughout southern Somalia by 19%. Agro pastoral and 
pastoral households in the south are squeezed between 
increased cereal prices and decreased livestock prices. 
Consequently, terms of trade between goats and local 
cereals have dropped by 5%. 
 
¶6.  DJIBOUTI 
 
UPDATES ON HUMANITARIAN/DIPLOMATIC FRONT:  The 
Djiboutian government has distributed several weeks 
 
worth of food aid to vulnerable drought affected 
Djiboutians. 
 
DONOR RESPONSE UDPATE: The WFP pipeline is about 65% 
resourced, including $1 million from the USG, and 
$600,000 from the Netherlands. 
 
UPDATE ON FOOD SECURITY AND OUTLOOK:  Successive 
rainfall failures and subsequent food insecurity have 
eroded livestock asset holdings as a result of mortality 
and distress sales.  There is a decline in livestock 
prices due to their deteriorating body condition and a 
rise in food prices by up to 25-30% which is causing a 
worsening of pastoral household purchasing power. 
Livestock concentration around water points is resulting 
in a high incidence of water borne diseases.  In Jan/Feb 
47,500 persons are on WFP's emergency food assistance at 
full ration and the numbers are rising.  An increase in 
the number of drought victims by 40% is expected in the 
coming months, while the number of people at risk of 
serious food insecurity may be as high as 150,000. 
 
CONCLUSION 
 
¶7.  Overall, the food security situation is 
deteriorating in Kenya, Ethiopia, Somalia, and Djibouti. 
The number of food aid insecure people is rising, and 
food aid and non-food aid needs are increasing.  The 
Regional Climate Outlook Forum recently issued forecasts 
that suggest there will be an average to poor long rains 
season (March - May) in the pastoralist Horn of Africa 
zone.  Food pipelines are weak, and will break over the 
summer unless more donor contributions are received. 
The Somalia situation is particularly grave, with famine 
conditions already being predicted from July - December 
2006, and with ongoing logistics constraints affecting 
food of delivery.  As the drought worsens, the potential 
for conflict will increase.  Host governments, 
humanitarian organizations and donors need to mobilize 
additional resources to mitigate the consequences of the 
drought.  ROWE