This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 NAIROBI 001161 
 
SIPDIS 
 
AIDAC 
 
USAID/DCHA FOR WGARVELINK, LROGERS 
DCHA/OFDA FOR GGOTTLIEB, MMARX, PMORRIS, CGOTTSCHALK 
DCHA/FFP FOR JDWORKEN, SBRADLEY 
USAID/AFR/EA FOR JBORNS 
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAID 
DAR ES SALAAM FOR USAID 
KAMPALA FOR USAID 
KHARTOUM FOR USAID 
KIGALI FOR USAID 
ROME FOR FODAG 
NSC FOR JMELINE 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: EAID SENV TPHY XW ZF EAGR ECON ETRD KE PGOV SOCI
SUBJECT:  17TH HORN OF AFRICA CLIMATE OUTLOOK FORUM 
 
Summary 
 
¶1. The 17th Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) climate 
outlook forum (COF) took place in Nairobi March 1-3, 
organized by the USAID-supported Inter-Governmental 
Authority on Development (IGAD) Climate Prediction 
and Applications Center (ICPAC).  The forum brought 
together policy makers, technical experts and climate 
outlook users from ten GHA countries to develop a 
forecast for the March to May 2006 rainfall season 
and to review its implications. 
 
¶2. The consensus climate forecast is for an increased 
likelihood of normal to below-normal rainfall over 
much of the GHA during the March to May 2006 rainy 
season. 
 
¶3.  If the region does experience below normal 
rainfall, there will be a significant negative impact 
on regional drought conditions, and reduce the 
likelihood for recovery.  In turn, donors providing 
humanitarian assistance to affected populations, 
including the USG, will need to review assistance 
strategies and levels.  End Summary. 
 
Background 
 
¶4. The USAID Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance 
(USAID/OFDA) Nairobi-based information technology 
specialist attended the 17th COF organized by ICPAC 
in Nairobi March 1-3.  The forum is organized twice 
per year by GHA governments and ICPAC to formulate 
consensus climate forecasts for the GHA. 
 
¶5.  The mission of ICPAC is to provide timely climate 
information and prediction services and enhanced 
applications of such products to reduce climate and 
weather related risks to food security, water 
resources and health for sustainable development in 
the GHA region.  In addition to hosting the COFs, 
ICPAC works with member countries to strengthen the 
capacity of climate scientists and users in climate 
prediction and applications.  The International 
Research Institute for Climate Prediction at Columbia 
University (IRI) has been providing technical 
assistance to ICPAC through a USAID\OFDA grant to 
improve climate forecasting in the GHA region. 
 
¶6.  In 2005, ICPAC officially became a technical 
agency of IGAD, and it plans to begin providing 
technical assistance to other offices within the IGAD 
secretariat on issues related to climate and weather 
 
SIPDIS 
forecasting. 
 
The Forum 
 
¶7.  The 17th COF was organized jointly by ICPAC, the 
national meteorological and hydrological services of 
the ten GHA countries, the World Meteorological 
Organization (WMO) and IRI. 
 
¶8.  Participants included climate scientists and 
experts from national, regional and international 
institutions including the Drought Monitoring Center 
in Zimbabwe, the United States Geological Survey, the 
Famine Early Warning System, University of Nairobi, 
UN Food and Agriculture Organization, UN World Food 
Program, Kenya Wildlife Services (KWS), the Regional 
Center for Mapping of Resources for Development, IRI, 
the WMO, Kenya Power and Lightning Company (KPLC) and 
media organizations. 
 
¶9.  The theme of the forum was "applications of 
seasonal climate prediction products and services in 
coping with climate related risks in the GHA". 
Discussions were held on the state of the global 
climate system and its implications on the seasonal 
climate of the GHA.  Among the principal factors 
taken into account were the observed and predicted 
surface sea temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical 
Pacific Ocean and in the tropical Atlantic and Indian 
oceans. 
 
The Forecast 
 
¶10.  The three categories used for the forecast are 
above-normal, normal, and below-normal rainfall, with 
those definitions based on observed rainfall averages 
over a thirty year period.  "Climatology" refers to a 
situation where any of the three categories has an 
equal chance of occurring.  "Above-normal" rainfall 
is defined as within the wettest third of recorded 
rainfall amounts in each area, "normal" is defined as 
the third of the recorded rainfall amounts centered 
around the climatological median, and "below-normal" 
rainfall as within the driest third of recorded 
rainfall amounts. 
 
¶11.  The climate experts' consensus forecast is as 
follows: 
 
-- Burundi:  an increased likelihood of normal to 
above-normal rainfall; 
 
-- Djibouti:  climatology with increased likelihood 
of normal to above-normal rainfall in the south; 
 
-- Eritrea:  climatology in much of the country; 
 
-- Ethiopia:  climatology in the north, increased 
likelihood of normal to above-normal rainfall in 
central parts of the country, and an increased 
likelihood of normal to below-normal rainfall in the 
south; 
 
-- Kenya:  an increased likelihood of normal to 
below-normal rainfall in much of the country, and an 
increased likelihood of normal to above-normal 
rainfall in parts of the country including the Lake 
Victoria basin; 
 
--Rwanda:  an increased likelihood of normal to 
above-normal rainfall; 
 
-- Somalia:  an increased likelihood of normal to 
below-normal rainfall in most of the country, with an 
increased likelihood of normal to above-normal 
rainfall in the northwest and coastal areas; 
 
-- Sudan:  climatology in the north and an increased 
likelihood of normal to above-normal rainfall in the 
south; 
 
-- Tanzania:  an increased likelihood of normal to 
below-normal rainfall in much of central and north- 
eastern parts of the country, and an increased 
likelihood of normal to above-normal rainfall over 
the Lake Victoria basin and the south and southwest; 
 
-- Uganda:  an increased likelihood of normal to 
below-normal rainfall in central and south-eastern 
parts of the country and an increased likelihood of 
normal to above-normal rainfall in the Lake Victoria 
basin and the west. 
 
Implications of the Forecast 
 
¶12.  The regional climate outlook is susceptible to 
spatial and temporal variations.  However, it can 
assist decision makers in making appropriate plans to 
mitigate the adverse impacts of extreme climate 
events in many sectors, while taking advantage of 
good conditions to make potential improvements. 
 
¶13. After developing the climate outlook, forum 
participants formed country teams to discuss its 
potential impacts and implications.  The teams also 
prepared strategies for disseminating the climate 
outlook information to non-specialists, and made 
recommendations on how to use the forecast to reduce 
vulnerability in affected populations. 
 
¶14.  Areas projected for normal rainfall in the 
coming season may not receive enough rain to reverse 
the impacts of the accumulated rainfall deficits and 
drought conditions that have persisted over parts of 
these areas. 
 
¶15.  Heavy and short duration rains and flash floods 
could occur, especially in arid and semi arid zones 
even during the seasons with below-normal rainfall 
conditions. 
 
¶16.  Areas with an above-normal rainfall forecast may 
experience a rise in river and reservoir water levels 
and increased soil moisture, leading to higher 
agricultural production, increased availability of 
pasture and water for livestock, and reduction in 
water-related conflict.  However, above-normal 
rainfall may also lead to an increase in water-borne 
diseases, flooding, damage to crops and vegetation, 
destruction of infrastructure and disruption of 
transportation. 
 
¶17.  Areas receiving below-normal rainfall will 
experience a deepening of drought effects, including 
water shortages, need for relief food, migration of 
pastoralists in search of pasture and water and high 
demand for agricultural produce. 
 
¶18.  Most forecasters are predicting a transition 
from a mild La Nina to neutral conditions over the 
eastern and central equatorial Pacific ocean while 
the SSTs in much of the Atlantic ocean and south- 
western and eastern/equatorial Indian ocean are 
warmer than average.  This, combined with the cooler 
than average temperature over north-western parts of 
the Indian ocean caused a tropical cyclone to develop 
in the southwestern Indian ocean producing heavy 
rainfall over some parts of the equatorial region 
during the forum (felt as heavy unseasonal rains in 
Nairobi).  Further development of tropical cyclones 
in the western Indian ocean region during the March- 
May period could disrupt the rainfall patterns in the 
sub-region. 
 
Conclusions 
 
¶19. The COFs and the climate information and 
prediction products that result have enormously 
improved the quality of seasonal rainfall outlook in 
the GHA since their inception.  As participation at 
the COFs has widened with different themes, the 
interaction of users from various sectors has 
improved the dissemination of climate information and 
prediction products for use in early warning and 
disaster management, preparedness and mitigation, and 
in planning for sustainable development in the GHA 
region. 
 
¶20.  The general forecast for lower than normal rains 
in much of the areas affected by the drought-induced 
food insecurity and livelihoods crisis in the region 
is cause for serious concern.  Especially in Somalia, 
where it is difficult to deliver assistance, the 
current crisis could deteriorate into a catastrophe 
and famine if the rains fail. 
 
¶21.  Donors, including the USG, providing 
humanitarian and other assistance to mitigate the 
effects of the crisis and reduce long-term 
vulnerability may, therefore, need to find more 
resources to address a potential worsening of the 
already bad situation in the GHA region. 
 
ROWE