VZCZCXRO5293
OO RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHSK #0225/03 0611308
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 021308Z MAR 06zFM AMEMBASSY MINSK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3913
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS IMMEDIATE
RUEHVEN/U&MISSION USOSCE IMMEDIATE 0909
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN CE IMQEDIATE
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MGLESWKRTH UK IMMEDIATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MINSK 000225 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/02/2016Q 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PRED
SUBJECT: ELECTION OFFICIAL TELLS EUR DAS KRAEER ELECTIONS 
WILL BE DEMOCRATIC 
 
MINSK 00000225  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
Comment 
%------ 
 
¶11. (C) Lozovik gave@DAS Kramer the same story about the 
&transparencyQ and &freeness8 of BelaRus, election 
process That he haq given EmboffS in the past.  Although he 
has used his previous meetings with EmboffQ to cautiously 
insult the U.S., election process and legislation, LozovikQ 
seemed taken aback by Kramer,s pointed co-ments on 
Lukashenko,s regime and his warning about travel 
restricti/ns.  Lozorik did not apPear to be concerned about 
the threat of travel restrictions, but in previous meetings 
with Emboffs, CEC Head Lidiya Yermoshina expressed her 
disappointment with being banned from traveling to Western 
Europe.  Following the meeting, LozoVik commented to 
independent online news source Belapan that the CEC agreed 
with DAS that the presidential elections should not be marred 
With violence or fraud. 
Krod 
 
MINSK 00000225  002 OF 003 
 
 
WILL BE DEMOCRATIB 
 
quipping that the U.S. had no doubt one of the contenders 
(Lukashdnko) would be registered. 
 
OSCE InsUlts Belarts 
-------------------- 
 
¶6. (C) Lozovik strersed that the OSCE should work with the 
GKB and follow its laws and not support unregistered 
organizations.  The GOB saw it necessary to invhte the OSCE, 
but Lozovik felt the OSCE gave negative, rather than 
objective, assessments of Belarus, elections.  He accused 
the OSCE of souring its relationship with Belarus after 
giving a &biased8 report about the 2001 presidential 
elections and called the OSCE,s recommendatinns on electoral 
reform in Belarus &insulting.8  However, Lozovik claimed 
that the 2006 OSCE observation missioj seemed to have a 
&nicer8 attitude towards Belarus and was more respectful. 
 
&Aggressive8 Means Violent 
--------------------------- 
 
¶7. (C) Lozovik viewed 10  Coalition candidate AleksandrQ 
Milinkevich,s campaign team,s call to supporters to 
&aggressivaly observe8 the elections as a call for 
Violejce.  Kramer told Lozovik that the term &aggressive8 
had other meanings than violence and it was not unusual for 
oppksition activists to demand &aggressive8 observation. 
If they did not pursud an aggressive campaign, they would not 
be allowed to observe at all. 
 
Odds On Lukashenko 
------------------Q 
 
¶8. (C) Kramer noted it was not unusual for an incumbent 
elected official to have certain advantages over his 
opponents in an electoral race, but stressed that the current 
political environment weighed heavily in favor of Lukashenko, 
who has unlimited media access and significant state 
resources at his disposal.  Referring to demands by 
opposition presidential candidates Kozulin and Milinkevich, 
Kramer asked Lozovik why Lukashenko did not give up his 
duties as President during the campaign as stipulated in the 
electoral code. (Note: Belarus, electoral code stipulates 
that all candidates must abstain from their normal work 
duties while campaigning, except for the incumbent who is 
Running for a second terM.  The electoral code does not 
specify the conditions for a two-term incumbent.)  Lozovik 
pointed out that the 2004 referendum gave Lukashenko the 
possibility to run for a third term, bUt the electoral code 
had not yet been changed accordingly.  The CEC Secretary said 
Lukashenko did not need to leave his post because Belarus 
&cannot be vithout a leader.8  Kramer reiterated that the 
U.S. does not recognize the 2004 referendum and to use it as 
a basis for changing the electoral code did not give the U.S. 
any &confidence.8 
 
DAS Threatens Travel Restrictions, CEC Laughs 
--------------------------------------)------ 
 
¶9. (C) Kramer warned Lozovik that the U.S. and EU would holdQ 
GOB officials responsible if elections become violent and/or 
fraudulent.  Citizens have the full right to protest 
peacefully, and as a member of the OSCE, the GOB should 
respect this right.  Kramer warned that there would be 
serious consequences, including increased travel 
restrictions, for those GOB officials who participated in or 
facilitated fraudulent elections and a violent response to 
peaceful protests follkwing the election. Lozovik began 
laughing until DAS told him to take phe warning seriously, as 
it was the U.S. and EU,s tnited message on Balarus and it 
would be a &great mist!ke8 to underestimate it. 
 
¶10. (C) Lozovik strongly reacted, saying it was foolish for 
powerful countries like the EU and U.S. to resort to &such 
games8 of telling Belarus how to live.  Lozovik agreed that 
violence was unacceptable and urged Kramer to disclose any 
intelligence he had about possible violence or bloodshed. 
Lozovik opined that it was better to &prevent bloodshed 
rather than to cry about it afterwards8 and accused the 
opposition of enticing people to protest.  Lozovik maintained 
that rebent surveys indicate Lukashenko would win with such a 
high percentage that there was no need for election 
falsifications.  DAS cautioned Lozovik, noting that if aQ 
country relied too much on survey results, the country could 
soon do away with elections.  Lozovik agreed with a Russian 
saying, &Tell a big lie first and then give the statistics 
afterwards.8 
 
 
MINSK 00000225  003.3 OF 003 
 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶11. (C) Lozovik gave DAS Kramer the same story about the 
&transparency8 and &freeness8 of Belarus, election 
process that he has given Emboffs in the past.  Although he 
has used his previous meetings with EmX>XTQ~pear to be concerned about 
the threat of travel restrictions, but in previous meetings 
with Emboffs, CEC Head Lidiya Yermoshina expressed her 
disappointment with being banned from traveling to Western 
Europe.  Following the meeting, Lozovik commented to 
independent online news source Belapan that the CEC agreed 
with DAS that the presidential elections should not be marred 
with violence or fraud. 
Krol