VZCZCXYZ0003
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHME #1665/01 0891554
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 301554Z MAR 06
FM AMEMBASSY MEXICO
TO RUEHXC/ALL US CONSULATES IN MEXICO COLLECTIVE
RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9868
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC

UNCLAS MEXICO 001665 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR WHA/MEX, WHA/EPSC 
STATE PASS USAID FOR ROBERT KAHN 
TREASURY FOR IA MEXICO DESK - JASPER HOEK 
COMMERCE FOR ITA/MAC/NAFTA ANDREW RUDMAN 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON EIND EINV ETRD
SUBJECT: THE MEXICAN RETAIL SECTOR: A LOOK AHEAD. 
 
¶1.  (SBU) SUMMARY: The Mexican retail sector is expected to 
grow aggressively in 2006-2007, driven by rising demand for 
low-cost goods coupled with expansion into previously 
underserved areas.  Econoff met with industry representatives 
and government officials who confirmed their widespread 
expectation of continued growth.  However, American firms 
such as WalMex (Wal-Mart's Mexican operation) and Costco 
likely will face increased challenges including new possible 
government regulation, nationalistic licensing policies, and 
increasingly competitive Mexican chains armed with a more 
sophisticated distribution system.  A greater presence by 
Chinese suppliers may also pressure prices and profit margins 
downward.  END SUMMARY. 
 
THE TIP OF THE ICEBERG 
---------------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) According to unpublished data from the National 
Institute of Statistics (INEGI), the Mexican retail sector 
grew by 3.6% in 2005, and by a 3.0% annualized rate in 
January, 2006.  Overall employment in the sector increased 
from 774,600 in January, 2001 to 869,290 in January, 2006, 
nearly 11%.  One researcher for INEGI informed Econoff that 
the amount of overall retail tax revenue collected outside of 
Mexico City has risen from 37% in 2001 to 45% in 2005, 
suggesting significant expansion of commercial retail 
activity in smaller communities.  Indeed, most industry 
participants agreed that the informal (unregistered) retail 
market still accounted for approximately 50% of the total 
retail activity in Mexico, and is especially prevalent in 
rural areas, suggesting that continued growth in these 
locations is likely. 
 
COSTCO STAYS THE COURSE 
----------------------- 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Mauricio Talayero, Director of Administration and 
Finance for Costco Mexico, told Econoff that warehouse-style 
retailer Costco is planning to open two additional warehouses 
in 2006 by following the expansion plan devised in 1993.  The 
plan terminates in 2015, when Costco is expected to have 68 
stores, compared to 28 in 2005.  While maintaining their core 
strategy of targeting high-income shoppers, Mr. Talayero 
described a future corporate emphasis on direct 
business-to-business sales.  An example of this strategy is a 
planned warehouse in Uruapan, a relatively small metropolitan 
area (population 225,900) in the relatively rural state of 
Michoacan with a much lower median income level than 
traditional Costco target areas.  However, Uruapan contains 
numerous small businesses, most of which currently depend on 
small, family owned suppliers.  Talayero also stated that 
even though Costco has a competitive advantage selling 
primarily U.S. goods (generally believed in Mexico to be of 
higher quality), the Mexican supermarket company Soriana has 
recently entered the market niche by launching several 
warehouses directly marketing to Costco customers. 
 
BIG WHEELS KEEP ON ROLLIN' 
-------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Francisco Suarez, Vice-President of Institutional 
Relations, confirmed to Econoff that WalMex will open 120 
outlets in 2006; 80 Wal-Marts and 40 Bodega Aurreras (a 
discount warehouse).  While also searching for less developed 
areas, WalMex is (along with Costco) hoping to capitalize on 
the untapped purchasing power of Mexican small business with 
specific business-to-business programs such as "Mi Tiendita," 
and "Mi Cafeteria."  Suarez also recognized Soriana as the 
most competitive rival, due to a reputation as the "Mexican 
hometown store," as well as their strong distribution system. 
 However, he pointed out an internal study which showed that 
Mexico's retail sector was only 40-50% saturated, offering 
great opportunity.  WalMex, stated Suarez, "was ready to take 
care of business." 
 
THE ONLY REAL THREAT 
-------------------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) While demonstrating growing sales totals that 
surpass the combined competition (up 3.9% in February 2006 
compared with February 2005), according to Suarez, WalMex's 
growth could be restricted by government policies which limit 
competition in the sector, traditionally one of the freest 
areas of the Mexican economy.  Suarez also privately admitted 
that the proposed "Commercial Practice Initiative," 
temporarily defeated in the Chamber of Deputies (due in part 
to a huge lobbying effort by WalMex), will likely resurface 
in 2007 in a more nationalistic context.  The initiative has 
two main facets; limitation of store construction to sites 
"consistent with Mexican interests" and approved by a federal 
regulatory board, and a prohibition against selling products 
below cost (a common technique utilized by WalMex to capture 
market share).  Both elements were described by Suarez as the 
only real threat confronting WalMex, as he stated that "our 
top priority at WalMex is ensuring competition everywhere." 
 
AND IN THE OTHER CORNER... 
-------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Arturo Monroy, Director General of the National 
Association of Retailers (ANAM) told Econoff that his 
organization, which is lobbying heavily for the initiative, 
represents 111 retail chains (all Mexican) locked in 
competition with "autoservicios" (WalMex, Costco).  Monroy 
could not predict the likelihood of the initiative being 
passed in 2007 (due to the uncertainty of the election in 
2006), but it is one of the highest priorities for ANAM. 
Monroy described the future for his clients; synchronized 
distribution centers and networks, state of the art 
technological platforms, and more effective marketing of 
their natural competitive advantage, their "Mexicanness." 
Admitting that the competition from WalMex had resulted in 
the reorganization of his clients as well as discounted 
prices and smaller profit margins, Monroy also voiced concern 
about the flood of Chinese products (many of whom escape 
import taxes) and their deleterious effect upon Mexican 
suppliers.  Similar to WalMex and Costco, many of ANAM's 
clients are focused on expanding into medium sized markets 
with lower income levels. 
 
PROMOTING "MEXICAN" RETAIL EXPANSION 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Recognizing potential rewards, such as lower 
unemployment and prices, state and municipal governments 
throughout Mexico are aggressively promoting the opening of 
retail supercenters targeted to medium sized population 
centers.  The Secretary of Economic Development for the state 
of Mexico, Laila Chemor Sanchez, and her advisor for retail 
development, Hector Garcia described for Econoff state 
programs designed to encourage economic growth in previously 
underserved communities.  According to both, retail 
development is easier and faster to achieve than industrial 
development, and is therefore a top priority.  Garcia also 
informed econoff that a vast majority of over 400 business 
license petitions issued in 2005 from the state of Mexico 
were from the retail sector.  Privately, Mr. Garcia 
acknowledged a confidential but clear directive from the 
Governor to "encourage and promote" Mexican chains over 
foreign firms, if other factors were equal (which is often 
not the case).  Garcia admitted to Econoff that this policy 
was highly divisive, and would probably be a controversial 
subject within the government in the immediate future.  It 
can be reasonably assumed that this policy is not unique to 
the State of Mexico. 
 
A "PYRAMID" OF LOCAL DEVELOPMENT 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶8.  (SBU) It has been 17 months since San Juan de 
Teotihuacan, a city of 50,000 inhabitants (with another 
50,000 living in nearby communities) located adjacent to the 
famous archeological site of Teotihuacan, made international 
headlines by hosting the opening of a Bodega Aurrera.  This 
medium sized city, until 2004 lacking any retail store over 
20,000 square feet in size, now possesses a "hypermarket" of 
over 80,000 square feet.   San Juan de Teotihucan therefore 
can illustrate the potential effects of the type of retail 
expansion likely to become commonplace in Mexico.  Econoff 
met with the general manager of Bodega as well as the mayor, 
both of whom confirmed that WalMex had already hired over 200 
full-time employees, while planning to hire an additional 50 
in 2006.  The general manager, Raul Butron, added that sales 
growth had so far exceeded all expectations.  The mayor, 
Adrian Galicia, later told Econoff privately that local 
retail prices had fallen 15% and the level of visitors from 
area communities had risen 25%, helping other businesses. 
Mr. Galicia was pleased because he expected the construction 
of a second warehouse, owned by Mexican retailer SuperPrecio, 
to begin within the year.  Econoff inquired about possible 
negative effects of the Bodega, to which Galicia replied that 
the infrastructure (primarily the road network) was 
insufficient to handle the huge increase in traffic. 
However, he also added that a new project was being planned 
to address this issue. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶9.  (SBU) The retail leader in Mexico is still clearly 
WalMex, although Mexican firms such as Soriana, Comercial 
Mexicana, and Chedraui are increasingly competitive.  WalMex 
also will likely face a threat of Mexican nationalism in the 
form of new regulation, unprecedented in the retail sector, 
as well as official and unofficial government policies 
favoring domestic chains.  Privately, executives from both 
camps expect several dynamic years of intense competition in 
2006-2007, with intense battles fought in the Chamber of 
Deputies, state and municipal licensing boards, and via 
advertising campaigns directed at new customers in presently 
underserved areas.  Strong expansion of the retail sector 
(possibly reaching 5% in 2006) will likely continue in the 
near future, principally targeted to medium-sized, 
medium-level income areas. 
 
 
Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity 
 
GARZA