VZCZCXRO8554
RR RUEHCD RUEHGD RUEHHO RUEHMC RUEHNG RUEHNL RUEHRD RUEHRS RUEHTM
DE RUEHME #1536/01 0812030
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 222030Z MAR 06
FM AMEMBASSY MEXICO
TO RUEHXC/ALL US CONSULATES IN MEXICO COLLECTIVE
RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9775
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
RUCPCIM/CIMS NTDB WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MEXICO 001536 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EB/IFD/OIA, WHA/EPSC AND WHA/MEX 
COMMERCE FOR ITA/MAC/NAFTA ANDREW RUDMAN 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: EINV ETRD KTDB PGOV MX
SUBJECT: EFFECT OF VIOLENCE ON MEXICAN INVESTMENT 
 
REF: A. 05 MEXICO 3747 
     ¶B. 05 MEXICO 4344 
 
¶1. SUMMARY.  Following the Mexican Competitiveness 
Institute's (IMCO) announcement that Mexico loses 15 percent 
of GDP, or USD 1.8 billion due to crime, business leaders 
including the presidents of CCE (Business Coordination 
Council, an umbrella group of trade associations); Coparmex 
(the National Employers Federation); and the head of the 
Mexican Stock Exchange; called for a reduction in violence 
for Mexico to avoid losing new foreign investment. U.S. and 
foreign businesses and business associations told us that 
although security spending is increasing, security has been 
an issue for some time and recent violence has not changed 
investment attitudes. While businesses may not publicly admit 
that crime is affecting investment decisions, it is 
increasing their costs.  All three Presidential campaigns 
have made security issues an important part of their 
platforms. END SUMMARY. 
 
VIOLENCE MAY PREVENT INVESTMENT 
------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  IMCO found in its study "Security and Competitiveness" 
that Mexico loses 15 percent of GDP or USD 1.8 billion due to 
delinquency. The Citizens Institute for Studies of Insecurity 
recently found that 54 percent of all Mexicans felt insecure. 
 The true number may be substantially higher as crime is 
typically underreported in Mexico.  According to the Citizens 
Institute for Studies of Insecurity, Baja California and the 
Federal District have the highest crime rates.  CCE called on 
the Secretariat of Government to increase the coordination 
between all levels of authorities to fight against the trend. 
 Alberto Nunez Esteva, President of Coparmex, stated that 
"violence is not the friend of investors.  Businessmen cannot 
invest when they are worried about their physical safety due 
to the increase in kidnappings."  The Minister of Government, 
Carlos Abascal disagreed, noting that violence has been 
concentrated in only a few areas, principally along the 
border.  This is the same opinion that has been expressed by 
officials for over a year (REFTEL B).  Coparmex went even 
further by offering to work with government to decrease 
crime, even suggesting an alliance with the U.S. in a fight 
against drug related violence. 
 
¶3.  In a recent speech, Guillermo Prieto Trevino, president 
of the Mexican Stock Exchange, declared that financial 
markets do not do well in times of uncertainty and 
insecurity.  He admitted that Mexican markets could become 
excessively volatile due to the upcoming elections and that 
violence could heighten this volatility.  The government has 
yet to undertake a positive campaign to reduce the violence 
and insecurity. 
 
OPINIONS VARY GEOGRAPHICALLY 
---------------------------- 
 
¶4.  A recent AmCham study found that companies have doubled 
their expenditures on security from two to four percent of 
total expenditures over the last three years.  AmCham has 
proposed the creation of a business security working group 
that would coordinate with the federal government to increase 
security.  It believes the current security environment 
imposes an unnecessary cost on its members and could cause 
potential investors to look elsewhere.  Coparmex, Cemex and 
Vitro told econoff in Monterrey that they view the increase 
in drug violence as a possible precursor to executive 
kidnappings and other crime.  Armored vehicles and body 
guards are the norm for executives in Monterrey. 
 
¶5.  Econoff met with the Director General of "Aregional," a 
public finance consulting group in Mexico. A recent study 
completed by their office indicates that the areas in Mexico 
that have the highest growth rate also have the most security 
problems.  Security has played an increasing role in site 
selection.  Electrolux, which recently completed a large 
plant in Ciudad Juarez, told us that they reviewed security 
issues at six sites before selecting the most secure site for 
their latest investment. A U.S. energy company in the 
preliminary stages of determining where to invest overseas 
recently contacted post with a list of security questions 
about Mexico.  COMMENT. This appears to be a paradox that 
growth and security issues are occurring in the same area. 
Since the implementation of NAFTA, the border region has been 
Mexico's largest growth area. Security issues have also 
increased dramatically in the region as the government 
increases its efforts against narcotics trafficking.  END 
COMMENT. 
 
MEXICO 00001536  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
¶6.  However, companies are more concerned with getting their 
product to market than they are with the effect of violence 
on personnel.  At a recent AmCham event in Guadalajara, 
participating firms including the Trade Development Director 
for the State of Kentucky told us that they are more 
concerned with the threat to their cargo on highways than 
they are with violence.  The fear of shipments being hijacked 
and/or being breached in order to move contraband/narcotics 
across the border was an area of concern raised by businesses 
in Monterrey as well.  This fear has existed for over a year 
(Reftel B).  Mateo Beja, CEO of Yale Textiles, also told 
econoff that he has to pay for escort protection for every 
one of his shipments.  Despite this he said every year he 
loses a few trucks to hijackings.  He sarcastically noted 
that miraculously the hijacked shipments always seem to be 
his high value merchandise. 
 
¶7.  The Director of the Japanese Maquila Association in 
Tijuana, Keisuke Matsuo, recently told econoff that his 
members view the violence as a war between Mexican drug gangs 
with innocent Mexicans caught in the middle, but the violence 
does not affect his members.  This is a dramatic shift from 
last year (Reftel A) when the Japanese Embassy predicted that 
all Japanese investment would leave Mexico due to the 
security situation.  Economic development officials in 
Tijuana have recently announced that, although they realize 
violence is an issue, they do not want to take steps to 
publicize it more widely as it may cause investment to leave 
Tijuana for other areas in Mexico. 
 
¶8. The current security situation is causing some groups to 
increase security cooperation.  The Customs Trade Partnership 
Against Terrorism (C-TPAT) in Ciudad Juarez has discussed 
initiating a program in the Hermosillo region. The Consulate 
General in Juarez has offered assistance and has noted that 
this may be an opportunity to initiate an Overseas Security 
Advisory Council (OSAC) in Hermosillo. 
 
FOX GOVERNMENT RESPONSE 
----------------------- 
 
¶9.  Dr. Eduardo Sojo, Chief of the Mexican Presidency's 
Office of Public Policy, admitted recently that security was 
one of the two principal items that had not been effectively 
resolved during the Fox administration.  He noted that Fox 
had submitted a proposal to have one federal police force 
instead of five.  Mexico currently has 420,000 police 
officers, although only 20,000 are federal officers. The lack 
of synergy between police forces has left them unable to 
effectively respond to recent security issues, according to 
Sojo.  In Sojo's view, the security situation in Mexico 
requires the collaboration of all levels of government.  He 
concluded his comments by stating that legislation is needed 
to modify the roles of Mexico's security institutions and 
that these institutions are not designed to foster consensus 
and show the legislature why the laws need to be modified. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶10.  Although no business or association was willing to 
identify a specific investment that had been lost due to the 
security situation in Mexico, our contacts admit that it 
increases the cost of business in Mexico, thereby decreasing 
competition, and remains a primary concern.  Security costs 
have doubled over the last two years and companies, while not 
afraid to invest, note that they are fearful of losses from 
hijacking and security issues.  The press suggests that many 
organizations may be publicly speaking out about violence to 
get the presidential candidates to take a stand on the issue. 
The fact that all three candidates have spoken regularly on 
the issue and Sojo's admission that the Fox administration 
fell short on security indicate that this is more of an issue 
than our contacts may want to indicate. 
 
 
Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity 
 
KELLY