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57344
2006-03-20 22:14:00
06MEXICO1509
Embassy Mexico
CONFIDENTIAL

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TAGS: PGOV PREL MX
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MEXICO 001509 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/19/2016 
TAGS: PGOV PREL MX
SUBJECT: ROSARIO GREEN ANALYZES PRESIDENTIAL RACE 
 REF: 05 MEXICO 7200 
 
Classified By: Political Minister-Counselor Leslie A. Bassett, Reasons: 
 1.4(B/D). 
 
¶1.  (C) Summary:  In a wide-ranging conversation, 
Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) Secretary General and 
former Foreign Minister Rosario Green offered to poloff her 
analysis of Mexico's presidential race.  She attributed 
Madrazo's current electoral problems in part to the fact that 
the PRI was unaccustomed to running a presidential campaign 
from the opposition and lacked an authoritative figure in the 
party -- such as a sitting president -- to enforce party 
discipline.  She also cited the scandals involving prominent 
PRI politicians Arturo Montiel and Mario Marin, and teachers' 
union leader Elba Esther Gordillo's desire to exact revenge 
for Madrazo's numerous slights (reftel), as contributing to 
the party's poor public image.  Notwithstanding the difficult 
electoral panorama that Madrazo faces, she argued that the 
candidate remained competitive, because of the PRI's 
allegedly large base of reliable voters.  She argued that as 
President, Madrazo would do a much better job of managing the 
U.S.-Mexico relationship than President Fox has done, 
asserting that Madrazo has much more realistic expectations 
for the relationship than does Fox or, by extension, Felipe 
Calderon.  She sought to portray presidential front-runner 
Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador as a dangerous authoritarian who 
would cause capital flight.  At several times during the 
conversation, she gave the impression of being outside of 
Madrazo's inner circle, an impression consistent with what we 
have heard from other contacts.  End summary. 
 
Answering "an Authentic Cry for Help" 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (C) In a rambling monologue, former Foreign Minister and 
current PRI Secretary General offered poloff her views on 
Mexico's presidential race.  (Note:  Green was named PRI 
Secretary General on September 30, 2005, succeeding Gordillo, 
 
SIPDIS 
who resigned the post as the result of a long-standing feud 
with former party president and current presidential 
candidate Roberto Madrazo.  End note.)  Green told poloff 
that she agreed to resign her position at St. Edward's 
University in Austin, Texas and return to Mexico because she 
considered the PRI's offer of the position "an authentic cry 
for help."  She believed Mexico was facing a potential 
"institutional crisis" that threatened its democracy, and 
that under the circumstances, she felt a moral obligation to 
return to Mexico and reenter political life. 
 
Death "by 1,000 Defections" 
--------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (C) Green enumerated several factors underlying PRI 
candidate Roberto Madrazo's poor standing in current polls. 
Perhaps most significantly, she noted that the PRI had never 
before run a presidential campaign without holding the 
presidency, and that it was struggling to adapt to its role 
as an opposition party.  The party was accustomed to having 
an all-powerful "godfather" figure -- i.e., an incumbent 
president -- to mediate disputes between rival factions and 
to impose discipline on the party.  The lack of such a 
dominant figure had led to considerable division within the 
party, and permitted disaffected PRIistas -- most notably, 
Sonora Governor Eduardo Bours -- to run a "counter campaign" 
against the party's nominee.  She also singled out the 
scandals involving such prominent PRIistas as former Mexico 
state Governor Arturo Montiel and current Puebla state 
Governor Mario Marin.  She added that in the face of poor 
party discipline, renegade party members, such as Elba Esther 
Gordillo, were free to pursue their personal vendettas 
against the candidate, seeking to cause Madrazo's political 
"death by 1,000 defections." 
 
Counting on the "Voto Duro" 
--------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (C) Green argued that notwithstanding the problems 
confronting the PRI, Madrazo remained a competitive 
candidate.  She argued that with the party's base of loyal 
voters (voto duro) of 10-11 million, it needed to win fewer 
than 5 million swing voters to win the election.  She argued 
that this election would likely be decided by young, first 
time voters, which was why Madrazo had entered into an 
alliance with the Green Party (PVEM).  She said Madrazo would 
soon air new television advertisements in order to 
reintroduce himself to the electorate, and demonstrate that 
his poor public reputation was not a reflection of his true 
self. 
 
Madrazo Has Realistic Expectations for U.S.-Mexico Relations 
--------------------------------------------- --------------- 
 
MEXICO 00001509  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
¶5.  (C) Green sought to assure poloff that Madrazo would 
manage U.S.-Mexico relations far better than President Fox 
or, by extension, Felipe Calderon.  She said that while 
Madrazo believed the U.S. and Mexico needed an immigration 
accord, Madrazo did not seek "the whole enchilada" -- 
unrestricted Mexican immigration into the U.S. -- as favored 
by President Fox early in his term.  She said Madrazo would 
be satisfied with a significant increase in the number of H1B 
and H2 visas made available to Mexico.  She added that while 
Madrazo understood the U.S. had the right to protect its 
border, including with a border wall, such a proposal 
offended Mexicans, and that U.S. interests would be better 
served by a high-tech "virtual wall." 
 
Better the Devil You Know 
------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (C) Green reiterated the usual critique of Revolutionary 
Democratic Party (PRD) candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador 
(AMLO), arguing that he was authoritarian and extremist.  She 
predicted that if he lost the election, he would refuse to 
accept the results unless the winner enjoyed a margin of at 
least 10 percent.  She intimated that AMLO would damage the 
Mexican economy, arguing that he only knew how to fight 
capital, not how to cooperate with it.  Unlike AMLO, Madrazo 
sought to eradicate poverty, not wealth.  She said only 
Madrazo had a chance of defeating AMLO, and that Calderon was 
already out of contention -- a surprising assertion 
considering that the PAN leads the PRI in most polls. 
 
Hoping for a Senate Seat.... 
---------------------------- 
 
¶7.  (C) As for her own personal ambitions, Green said that 
she had registered as a Senate candidate and expected to be 
named a candidate on the party's national (plurinominal) 
list, although she did not indicate whether she expected to 
be named to a sufficiently high position to guarantee her 
election.  (Note:  At least two embassy contacts in the PRI 
have told us that she would not be given a high position on 
the party's plurinominal list.  End note.) 
 
Comment:  Madrazo's Latest Victim? 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶8.  (C) Green stayed close to the party line throughout our 
conversation; indeed, we were surprised only by her assertion 
that the PAN was already out of contention, since it 
continues to lead the PRI in most polls.  Otherwise, Green 
gave the impression of being something of a figurehead as 
party Secretary General.  She seemed less informed about 
internal party politics than some lower ranking contacts, and 
gave the impression of not being in Madrazo's inner circle, 
confirming what we have heard elsewhere.  Such an impression 
would be further confirmed if she is relegated to an 
uncompetitive position on the party's legislative list, an 
anomalous result for the party's second-ranking official.  If 
that turns out to be the case, we will not be able to escape 
the impression that Madrazo lured her back to Mexico with 
empty promises last September, when according to party 
by-laws, he urgently needed a woman to fill the post 
abandoned by Gordillo.  If her party loyalty is not duly 
rewarded, Green may prove to be but the latest victim of 
Roberto Madrazo's lifetime of double dealing.  End comment. 
 
 
Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity 
 
GARZA