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RR RUEHCD RUEHGD RUEHHO RUEHMC RUEHNG RUEHNL RUEHRD RUEHRS RUEHTM
DE RUEHME #1456/01 0761844
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 171844Z MAR 06
FM AMEMBASSY MEXICO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9701
INFO RUEHXC/ALL US CONSULATES IN MEXICO COLLECTIVE
RUEAUSA/DEPT OF EDUCATION WASHDC
RUEAHLA/DEPT OF HOMELAND SECURITY
RUEHC/DEPT OF INTERIOR WASHDC
RUEAWJA/DEPT OF JUSTICE WASHDC
RUEHC/DEPT OF LABOR WASHDC
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MEXICO 001456 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
PLEASE PASS TO ALL BNC PARTICIPANTS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV ELAB CVIS EAID MX
SUBJECT: THE FOX ADMINISTRATION'S FINAL BI-NATIONAL 
COMMISSION (BNC):  TIME FOR AN ASSESSMENT 
 
¶1.  (SBU)  Summary:  Fox Administration officials see this 
fifth and final BNC of their term as a chance to highlight 
bilateral achievements, institutionalize successful 
mechanisms, and prepare for the heads of state meeting in 
Cancun. President Fox, who recently announced imminent 
extraditions of cartel leaders to the U.S., is clearly 
interested in making history in contrast to his Foreign 
Secretary, Luis Ernesto Derbez, who is more interested in 
 
SIPDIS 
headlines.   We will find Government Secretary Abascal, 
Public Security Secretary Medina Mora, and to a lesser degree 
Attorney General (PGR) Cabeza de Vaca most able to address 
our fundamental concerns regarding security, migration and 
law enforcement.  The Fox cabinet recognizes that it has mere 
months to cement its legacy before a probable change to a 
presidency they view literally with fear and loathing. 
Embassy notes that in March there will be three high-level 
encounters (including presidential)  between the U.S. and 
Mexico, calling into question the continued need for the BNC. 
 End Summary. 
 
The Fox Administration's Final BNC 
 
¶2.  (SBU)  The Fox administration labors under the weight of 
missed opportunities, and the relationship with the United 
States is one area of disappointment.  Unprecedented 
bilateral cooperation on law enforcement, extraditions and 
anti-terrorism measures goes largely unperceived by the 
public eye.  Expectations are raised (often fueled by 
ill-advised SRE leaks) by bilateral meetings at the head of 
state, cabinet or other levels , which are characterized as 
"failures" when no sweeping programs (benefiting Mexico) are 
launched.  Derbez is criticized for being at odds with Cuba 
and the U.S. at the same time.  He and the Fox Administration 
see March's remaining trifecta of meetings (the 3/23 NAFTA 
ministerial, the BNC and the leaders meeting in Cancun) as a 
chance to show the relationship is thriving as never before 
-- and reaping benefits for Mexico.  They will seek 
recognition for anti-crime efforts, commitments for better 
migrant protection, and keep one eye on the Senate debates in 
the hope that immigration reform prospers.  The Mexican 
delegation will offer protocols for responding to border 
violence, strengthened efforts to monitor its southern 
border, and acknowledgment that Mexico could do more on its 
northern border (in exchange for more work visas). 
 
The End of the Sexenio 
 
¶3.  (SBU)  As the Fox six-year term ends (Fox is precluded 
from re-election) he confronts expected but still biting 
criticism from the current candidates, including Felipe 
Calderon from his own National Action Party (PAN).  Fox for 
his part continues to stress the importance of continuity, 
the risk of "changing horses mid-stream," and the dangers of 
demagoguery, all in a transparent effort to detract from 
leading Democratic Revolution Party (PRD) candidate Andres 
Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO).  AMLO, who runs under the rubric 
"For the Benefit of All -- but First the Poor," polls at 41 
percent, 10 points higher than Calderon, and 16 points higher 
than Institutional Revolution Party (PRI) candidate Roberto 
Madrazo.  While there are still four months before July 2 
elections, an AMLO victory seems increasingly inevitable, a 
prospect that Fox personally abhors and that many in the PAN 
dread.  While we have remained carefully neutral in this 
election, PAN and government officials receive any critical 
dialogue as electoral blows. In fact the United States has 
not played as an issue at all in this election -- with the 
single exception of migration. 
 
¶4.  (SBU)  Mexicans have focused more strongly on Mexico's 
falling competitiveness, a theme of last year's BNC.  In 
education, productivity, foreign investment, transparency -- 
Mexico has fallen in the rankings or struggled to hold 
position.  Through the "Chapultepec Pact," multi-billionaire 
Carlos Slim and other business leaders have tried to get the 
parties to endorse a national platform of economic principles 
designed to enhance competitiveness.  Of course, commentators 
note that Slim's domination of key sectors contributes to 
Mexico's lack of global competitiveness.  AMLO is the only 
candidate not to sign on to the Pact.  Slim has joined many 
economic observers in stating that the fundamentals of 
Mexico's economy are stable regardless of which candidate 
wins in 2006. 
 
MEXICO 00001456  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
The Sexenio to Come 
 
¶5.  (SBU)  Our interests align with Mexico's in trying to 
codify successful cooperative relationships through protocols 
that can be established, exercised and implemented at 
operational levels.  While Mexico will seek some kind of 
accord that can be signed at the leaders' meeting in Cancun, 
we are better served by highlighting operational commitments 
by both sides to, for example, actually respond to incidents 
of border violence.  Mexico anticipated this by beefing up 
law enforcement presence along the border with Texas.  Our 
message is that we need sustained, strategic efforts along 
the length of the border. 
 
¶6.  (SBU)  We also need the Fox team to help us ensure 
continuity through what is likely to be a thorny transition 
from one administration to the next.  Two-thirds of those 
Mexicans participating in the BNC will be out of office in 
December, regardless of who wins in July.  As much as we can 
applaud the cooperation we have now, we need their commitment 
to sustain it through the transition, and to be collaborative 
with an incoming government so our interests don't suffer. 
 
¶7.  (SBU)  Finally, the change in Mexican government is an 
opportunity to evaluate the continued utility of the BNC 
format.  In 1981 when the BNC was launched there were no 
faxes, internet, cell phones, NAFTA or SPP.  Today we have a 
broad range of tools and fora that are used daily to engage 
with the Mexicans at the local, state, and federal levels. 
The optic of the BNC is strong symbolically, but it is 
increasingly weak substantively.  We get more impact, better 
bilateral results and better media play from issue-specific, 
relevant meetings between cabinet partners than we do from 
the half-day of the BNC. 
 
 
Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity 
 
GARZA