This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 MANAMA 000442 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR C, NEA, NEA/ARP, NEA/IR 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/13/2016 
TAGS: PREL PARM PTER MARR EFIN KISL KNNP BA IR REGION BILAT OFFICIALS
SUBJECT: DEPUTY PM, FOREIGN MINISTER AGREE TO COUNSELOR 
ZELIKOW'S PROPOSAL FOR STRATEGIC DIALOGUE 
 
REF: A. MANAMA 0358 
     ¶B. MANAMA 0180 
 
Classified by Ambassador William T. Monroe for reasons 1.4 
(b) and (d). 
 
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Summary 
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¶1.  (S) State Department Counselor Zelikow met separately 
with Deputy Prime Minister Shaikh Mohammed bin Mubarak Al 
Khalifa and Foreign Minister Shaikh Khalid bin Ahmed Al 
Khalifa March 12 to initiate a strategic dialogue on regional 
security, including concerns about Iran.  They agreed with 
the U.S. assessment of Iran's revolutionary and subversive 
ambitions in the region.  They said the GCC could play an 
important role in conducting the next stages of a strategic 
dialogue.  Saudi Arabia is the key country in the region and 
needs to be brought on board to launch the initiative. 
Shaikh Khalid proposed that U.S. and GCC foreign ministers 
meet in an isolated, casual setting to brainstorm about 
dealing with regional challenges, including the Iranian 
threat.  They also discussed Iran's nuclear program, the 
internal situation in Iran, and Iranian meddling in regional 
countries.  End Summary. 
 
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Strategic Dialogue to Oppose Iranian Threat 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (S) Counselor Zelikow, accompanied by Centcom J5 Director 
Rear Admiral Moeller and the Ambassador, met with Deputy 
Prime Minister Shaikh Mohammed bin Mubarak Al Khalifa and 
Foreign Minister Shaikh Khalid bin Ahmed Al Khalifa March 12 
to inaugurate a strategic dialogue on regional security, 
including concerns about Iran.  The Counselor said it 
appeared to Washington that Iran's regime seeks to promote a 
violent, revolutionary, extremist agenda.  The nuclear 
program is just one manifestation of this agenda, but it also 
includes terrorism and subversion of foreign governments. 
Iran's number one priority is to reduce United States power 
in the area so it can intimidate and neutralize local 
governments.  The U.S. seeks to work with Gulf states to 
counter Iran's moves and counter the impression that the 
Iranian tide is rising while the American tide is ebbing. 
The strategy would encompass diplomacy, security, and 
financial investment, including in regional energy resources, 
without an ostentatious display of U.S. force.  There is some 
risk to standing up to the Iranians that the regional states 
would have to accept. 
 
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Although Slow and Cautious, GCC Best Forum for Dialogue 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
¶3.  (S) ForMin Shaikh Khalid thanked the Counselor for the 
explanation.  He said it provided new direction and context 
for the Secretary's comments during her meeting with GCC 
foreign ministers in Abu Dhabi February 23.  In reply to the 
Counselor's question, Shaikh Khalid said that the GCC was 
"not even at the beginning" of having a strategy to deal with 
Iran.  The GCC is a slow, cautious institution with 
antiquated, complex internal procedures.  It is riven with 
petty disputes and rivalries among the members, such as small 
border issues and ownership rights of shared petroleum 
deposits.  A joint U.S.-GCC strategic plan could prod the 
members to work together and elevate their engagement.  For 
the GCC countries, it would be important not to have any 
individual, unplanned moves on Iran; full coordination is 
best.  Within the GCC, Oman is the exception on Iran. 
Foreign Minister Yusuf bin Alawi has met twice with Larijani 
and now argues that there is no proof Iran has embarked on a 
nuclear weapons program. 
 
¶4.  (S) Shaikh Khalid recommended that the U.S. urge Saudi 
Arabia to take a fresh look at how it deals with its "little 
brothers" in the GCC.  While Bahrain, Qatar, and Kuwait have 
progressed, Saudi Arabia's way of dealing with them does not 
change.  Saudi Arabia is the most important country in the 
region.  Once it decides to deal with Iran as a real threat, 
it can devote diplomatic energy and real work toward 
addressing Iran.  This would be a "breath of fresh air" in 
the organization.  The GCC should take a position against 
Iranian ambitions and the U.S. and GCC should quickly launch 
a strategic dialogue.  Shaikh Khalid proposed that GCC and 
U.S. foreign ministers, and perhaps defense ministers 
separately, meet in an isolated location without media to 
brainstorm in a casual, low-key way about Iran.  A serious, 
open dialogue would help build the partnership and allow the 
parties to move forward together.  This could take place as 
soon as the U.S. had completed its consultations with GCC 
members. 
 
¶5.  (S) Deputy PM Shaikh Mohammed said the countries of the 
region had to work collectively with the United States in 
facing Iran.  One country alone could not do it.  The GCC is 
a good framework for this discussion, although it is far from 
perfect.  Shaikh Mohammed suggested the possibility of a 
GCC-NATO dialogue on Iran to cover long-term interests and 
strategy.  Iran will only be deterred by power and strength, 
he said. 
 
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Nuke Program Unites Iranians 
---------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (S) Saying he had visited Tehran in late January, ForMin 
Shaikh Khalid explained that he had noticed a change in 
Iranian rhetoric about its nuclear program.  Whereas 
President Ahmadi-Nejad had termed nuclear weapons "haram" 
during his UN address last September, Foreign Minister 
Motakki used the weaker formulation "contrary to our 
religious beliefs."  The Iranians claimed they were not 
scared of sanctions, saying the country was used to them (Ref 
B).  The nuclear program is a national issue that unites 
Iranians. 
 
¶7.  (S) Deputy PM Shaikh Mohammed said Iran's development of 
a nuclear program was a direct threat to the region.  Bahrain 
has opposed the introduction of nuclear weapons in the Middle 
East for a long time.  The GCC has emphasized that the Gulf, 
in particular, must be free of nuclear weapons.  Bahrain told 
Iran that while it has a right to develop nuclear technology, 
the IAEA would be the judge of the program (Ref A).  Bahrain 
worries that Iran will reach an advanced stage in its nuclear 
development, from which the move to weapons is quick and 
easy.  In this event, Bahrain would need cover and protection 
from its allies.  While Bahrain wants to avoid conflict, it 
needs to think about a worst case scenario.  Shaikh Mohammed 
suggested development of a joint plan to deal with Iran. 
 
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Signs of Strife In Iran 
----------------------- 
 
¶8.  (S) ForMin Shaikh Khalid noted there are signs of 
internal problems and strife in Iran, such as bombings taking 
place in some parts of the country.  On the streets, men are 
more likely to be dressed as "soccer players and Western pop 
stars" than wearing beards, and there are reports that some 
Iranians are leaving Islam and becoming Zoroastrians.  Former 
President Khatemi transited Bahrain recently, on his way to 
and from Qatar, and Shaikh Khalid said Khatemi told him that 
he could not believe Ahmadi-Nejad had been elected president. 
 Khatemi said he had built bridges to Iran's neighbors and 
the West, but Ahmadi-Nejad destroyed them. 
 
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Iranian Interference in Bahrain, Region 
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¶9.  (S) In response to the Counselor's question, Shaikh 
Khalid said the GOB had evidence that the Iranian Ambassador 
in Bahrain was distributing cash to agents inside the country 
and it was only a "matter of time" before Iran became 
directly involved in Bahrain's internal affairs.  The 
Iranians want to impose pro-Iran clerics on Bahraini Shias. 
Clerics travel regularly to Qom and some are declared 
ayatollahs even though they do not deserve this rank.  Iran 
threatens Bahrain at a time when Bahrain is opening up to the 
world and implementing political and economic reforms 
domestically. 
 
¶10.  (S) Regionally, Shaikh Khalid said Iran uses all the 
levers at its disposal to promote its hegemony in Iraq and 
the Gulf region.  They want a weak Iraq plagued with 
terrorism.  Iran is not only arming Shia militias but also 
possibly Sunni insurgents.  It supports Hizballah in Lebanon 
and may give aid to Hamas, thus enabling Hamas to ignore the 
pressure of the international community.  It has gained a 
foothold in northern Yemen by arming and financing the 
Houthis, a group in rebellion against the central government. 
 Shaikh Mohammed agreed that Iran's goal is to push the 
United States out of the Gulf region and undermine local 
governments.  "Everywhere they find an opportunity, they take 
it."  The countries of the region have to send a unified 
message that Iran must not interfere. 
 
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Iraq, Palestinians Also Of Concern 
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¶11.  (S) Deputy PM Shaikh Mohammed emphasized that the 
Israel-Palestinian situation and Iraq are very important to 
Bahrain.  The deterioration in Israeli-Palestinian relations 
creates an atmosphere for extremists to gain influence, in 
the Palestinian territories (Hamas), Egypt (Muslim 
Brotherhood), and even in Bahrain.  On Iraq, Bahrain cannot 
trust a government run by Iranian agents.  Iraq needs a truly 
national government, not one run by Sunnis or Shias or Kurds. 
 Regional governments would have to gain trust in the Iraqi 
government before investing in its petroleum sector, even if 
the investments could be profitable.  Shaikh Mohammed 
recommended that the U.S. make its regional friends feel that 
they are strategic allies rather than talk publicly about 
decreasing America's dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. 
 
¶12.  (U) Counselor Zelikow cleared this cable. 
 
MONROE