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P 201022Z MAR 06
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TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8902
INFO RUEHKI/AMEMBASSY KINSHASA 1229
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 0273
RUEHLU/AMEMBASSY LUANDA 0884
RUEHNJ/AMEMBASSY NDJAMENA 0357
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 0764
RUEHYD/AMEMBASSY YAOUNDE 0593

C O N F I D E N T I A L LIBREVILLE 000180 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS 
KINSHASA PASS BRAZZAVILLE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/20/2016 
TAGS: PGOV TP
SUBJECT: SAO TOME AND PRINCIPE LEGISLATIVE ELECTION PRIMER 
 
Classified By: POLITICAL OFFICER GLENN FEDZER 
FOR REASON 1.4 (B) 
 
¶1. (C) Summary: Sao Tome will hold legislative elections 
March 26.  Ten political parties and coalitions will compete 
for all 55 seats in the National Assembly.  Compared to other 
central African countries where the President dominates 
governance, the Assembly is the key institution in Sao Tome, 
with real control over law and budget.  Today no one party 
holds sufficient seats to appoint a government, and despite 
significant campaign spending and accusations of vote buying, 
the outcome is likely to be continued governance by 
coalition.  Most observers believe the election will be free 
and fair (although campaign tactics may not), and the results 
peacefully accepted by the population.  End Summary. 
 
A legislative election in Africa that matters 
--------------------------------------------- 
¶2.  (U)  The campaign for control of Sao Tome's Assembly 
kicked off March 11, with voting scheduled for March 26.  Ten 
parties are competing for 55 seats in six districts on Sao 
Tome island and one encompassing Principe.  Preliminary 
results should be available the night of voting, with 
official results published two weeks later. 
 
¶3.  (SBU)  Compared to other central African legislatures, 
the democratically-elected National Assembly in Sao Tome 
plays an unusually strong role in the country's political 
life.  Unlike in neighboring countries with a strong 
Presidency, the Assembly (and the government appointed by its 
majority) plays the dominant role in adopting legislation and 
budgets.  Since currently no party holds a majority, (see 
para 5 below), forging consensus in the Assembly is 
difficult, sometimes interferes with legislation and has 
destabilized governments.  The resulting stalemate is an 
ongoing source of frustration for the general population,  as 
are the sparks that that fly almost daily from friction 
between the assembly and the Presidency.  Sao Tome has had 
three prime ministers in the last two years, all drawn from 
the MLSTP (which has formed alliances with other parties in 
the Assembly). 
 
¶4.  (SBU)  Sao Tomeans are reluctant to predict which party 
will come out on top March 26, and many expect that heavy 
spending by the MLSTP, MDFM, and ADI will cancel each other 
out and produce an outcome not much different from the status 
quo.   Despite high stakes and heavy spending, nearly 
everyone in Sao Tomean believes the population will 
peacefully accept the outcome, although some agitators may 
spark small non-violent demonstrations. 
 
 
A Cast of Characters 
-------------------- 
¶5.  (C)  Sao Tome has a mixed Presidential/Parliamentary 
system.  The President currently appoints the Foreign and 
Defense Ministers, but he will lose this authority after the 
Presidential election in July.  Ministers need not be sitting 
members of the Assembly, but the government formed must have 
the approval of an Assembly majority.  The ten parties or 
coalitions running on March 26 are: 
 
--MDFM/PCD coalition.  The MDFM is the party of President 
Fradique Menezes and holds 23 seats in the current assembly. 
Observers and opponents allege the MDFM receives financial 
support from Nigeria, Libya, Equatorial Guinea, and Taiwan. 
The MDFM president is Tome Vera Cruz, and PCD and coalition 
President is Leonel Mario d'Alva.  Former party stalwart and 
National Assembly Vice President Carlos Neves has split with 
Menezes and is leaving the MDFM to run with the UDD (see 
below). 
 
--MLSTP/PSD Party (Note: PSD, "Social Democratic Party," was 
added to the "Movement for the Liberation of Sao Tome and 
Principe"  after the fall of the Berlin Wall.  The MLSTP/PSD 
is not a "coalition" like the MDFM and PCD).  The party of 
Prime Minister Maria do Carmo Trovoada Silveira, it holds 24 
seats and controls parliament in alliance with the ADI.  The 
MLSTP allegedly gets money from China and Angola.  Party 
President is Poser de Costa, and the Vice President is 
Dionisio Diaz.  It is widely believed an outright MLSTP win 
would result in Sao Tome shifting diplomatic recognition back 
to the PRC from Taiwan. 
 
--ADI.  Currently with five seats in the National Assembly, 
the ADI and party President Patrice Trovoada are said to be 
as flush with campaign funds as the MDFM and MLSTP.  Many 
observers, confident they know sources of funding for the 
MLSTP or the MDFM, were quick to note that "they had no idea" 
where ADI was getting money.  One MLSTP supporter, when 
pressed, opined that private Nigerian and American oil 
executives were the likely culprits.  ADI suffered some 
defections in a power struggle between Trovoada and founding 
members of the party; many key grass-roots organizers now 
support the UDD. 
 
--UE-KEDADJI Coalition.  Representing four parties (the PPP, 
CODO, PRD, and UNDP), UE-KEDADJI currently holds three seats 
and will run with an addition party, the PRS, in the upcoming 
election.  Francisco Silva (PPP) runs the coalition 
delegation in the Assembly.  Other party leaders include 
Manuel Neves Silva (CODO), Armindo Graca (PRD), Paixao Lima 
(UNDP), and Hamilton Vaz (PRS).  The coalition has limited 
financial means, but may squeak out a few seats. 
 
--UDD.  A new party with some old names, including Party Vice 
President Gabriel Costa (a former Prime Minister), and 
current National Assembly Vice President Carlos Neves.  Party 
President Manuel Diego and Costa both complain that they have 
no funds to run a campaign, but other observers feel the 
party may gain a few seats behind the political experience of 
its leaders and help from some skilled campaigners who 
defected from the ADI. 
 
--Novo Rumo.  The "New Path" is led by Joao Gomes, whose 
populist rhetoric has struck a chord with voters.  A 
long-shot to win more than a few seats, he appears to be one 
of the more respected politicians in the campaign. 
 
--FDC.  The party of ex-"Buffalo" Arlecio Costa.  The 
Buffaloes are apartheid-era South African mercenaries, some 
of whom were implicated in the 2003 coup attempt.  At last 
count 14 ex-Buffalo live in Sao Tome.  FDC is unlikely to win 
a seat. 
 
--PTS.  Party President Anicleto Rolin.  Unlikely to win a 
seat. 
 
--GE.  Party President Levy Nazare formed the "Generation of 
Hope" around technocrats and government officials in their 
twenties and thirties, who want to end the mismanagement of 
their parents' generation.  Nazare complained that big 
parties will bury the smaller parties with externally-donated 
funds, and considered dropping out of the election when 
government campaign funds were not provided (as occurred in 
some earlier elections).  Nazare does not expect to win much 
support beyond the urban middle class, but chose to remain in 
the election to take advantage of broadcast time provided to 
all parties on state run television and radio to get his 
message across. 
 
--PSL.  Party President Augustino Rita.  Unlikely to win a 
seat. 
 
A seat is cheaper in Caue...if you can get there 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
¶6.  (C) All 55 seats in the National Assembly are open.  The 
seats are allocated to six different districts in Sao Tome, 
and a seventh in Principe Island, although the parties are 
not obliged to run in each district.  Actual residence in a 
district is not a prerequisite for candidacy, a cause of some 
friction with voters as most candidates on party lists are 
middle and upper-class elites from the capital district of 
Agua Grande.  Parties win seats based on getting a percentage 
in each district, making votes in districts like Caue (642 
votes needed for a seat) more valuable than Agua Grande (2464 
votes per seat).  Parties may form coalitions and add their 
vote totals together (even after the election) to claim 
seats.  (Comment: Unfortunately for party activists 
interested in buying votes, roads to Caue are in an 
exceptionally poor state of repair.  End comment.)  A total 
of 79,842 voters are registered in Sao Tome and Principe: 
 
District      Seats    Registered Voters 
 
Agua Grande     13        32,025 
 
Me Zochi        13        20,550 
Canta Galo       7          7629 
 
Caue             5          3206 
 
Lemba            6          5780 
 
Lobata           6          7305 
 
Principe         6          3347 
 
 
Real Money Today For Oil Money Tomorrow 
--------------------------------------- 
¶7.  (C) Campaign spending is reportedly lavish, and 
accusations of vote buying are routine.  Many Sao Tomeans 
perceive the stakes are higher for this election, believing 
the next Assembly will control Sao Tome as oil revenue begins 
to arrive in the islands.  Expectations of an oil windfall 
are premature, but politicians are reportedly spending far 
more than in previous elections regardless.  Banker and 
former Minister of Finance Acacio Bonfim told the Embassy 
there is an unusually high demand for Dobras (the local 
currency), and believes that campaign spending and vote 
buying are the cause.  His firm (the Bank of Sao Tome and 
Principe) has watched politicians empty their local currency 
accounts in preparation for the election, and he fears the 
additional spending and supposed influx of hard currencies 
will temporarily strengthen the Dobra and even create a short 
term spike in consumer prices. 
 
Dispute highlights Assembly-Presidency Conflict 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
¶8.  (C)  The National Electoral Commission (CEN) administers 
the vote and all 232 polling stations, and is at the center 
of the most recent dispute between the Assembly and the 
President.  President Menezes recently formed an independent 
audit committee to examine the CEN's data base in a dispute 
over 9000 "undocumented" voters, a move even neutral 
observers condemned as unconstitutional.  An MDFM party 
member said Menezes' intention was good, but the execution, 
terrible.  National Assembly Vice President Carlos Neves 
attacked Menezes publicly for the move.  He told the Embassy 
that if the CEN granted the committee access it would create 
chaos, adding that these problems should be addressed by the 
"right institutions," i.e., the Assembly, and not the 
President.  Neves adds that most of the 9000 undocumented 
voters were legally registered in 1996, as the law allows two 
witnesses to stand in for documentation such as a birth 
certificate.  CEN President Jose Carlos Barrios agrees with 
Neves, saying he will give the President's committee the 
output from his data base, but not let them anywhere near his 
computers. 
 
A system that works..sort of 
---------------------------- 
¶9.  (C)  COMMENT: The constant infighting, bickering, and 
political logjams that mark Sao Tome political institutions 
obscure the fact (or perhaps prove the point) that Sao Tome 
is something rare in this part of Africa: a functioning 
democracy.  Despite possible vote buying, voters who go to 
the polls are free to pick any party on the ballot, a point 
that even constitutes the campaign strategy for some smaller 
parties (take their money and vote for us...).  The MLSTP and 
MDFM most likely will split most of the vote, with ADI, UDD, 
UE-KEDADJI, and perhaps Novo Rumo picking up a few seats. 
 
SIPDIS 
Unless a party picks up a majority, an alliance in the 
Assembly will again be required, and the conflict between the 
Assembly and the President will continue.  If the MLSTP wins, 
President Menezes may decide not to run for reelection to 
avoid the frustration of fighting the Assembly for the 
majority of his second term.  Regardless, most observers 
confidently predict that the ballot on the 26th will be free 
and fair, and the population will peacefully accept the 
results on the 27th. 
WALKLEY