VZCZCXYZ0008
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHLGB #0286/01 0870529
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 280529Z MAR 06
FM AMEMBASSY KIGALI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2572
INFO RUEHXR/RWANDA COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CDR USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE

UNCLAS KIGALI 000286 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/C 
EUCOM FOR POLAD 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL SOCI ECON KDEM RW
SUBJECT: RWANDA SCENE-SETTER FOR VISIT OF AF A/S JENDAYI 
FRAZER, APRIL 5-8, 2006 
 
Overview 
-------- 
 
¶1.  Post warmly welcomes your visit to Rwanda.  Rwanda is a 
country struggling to overcome its past and bring its people 
and economy into the 21st century.  The legacy of the 1994 
genocide in which up to one million people were killed still 
haunts the country and underlies the tension faced by a 
government attempting to balance the goals of internal 
security and democracy.  While the current government has 
made dramatic progress in rebuilding the country's 
infrastructure and economy which was devastated by the 
genocide, there are many remaining challenges. 
 
¶2.  On March 11, for the second time in seven months, 
President Kagame reshuffled his cabinet, dismissing three 
ministers reportedly for poor performance.  The Rwandan 
Civil Aviation Authority and SN Brussels Airlines are still 
in negotiation to resume operation of SN Brussels flights 
between Europe and Rwanda that have been suspended since 
late February as a result of a dispute.  Ongoing criticism 
by GOR officials and genocide survivors of "Hotel Rwanda" 
hero Paul Rusesabagina continues to call into question his 
credibility, reputation, and hero status.  The campaign 
coincides with his outspokenness against the government. 
Former President Bizimungu remains in prison, along with 
former Minister of Transport and Communication Charles 
Ntakirutinka, on charges of misappropriation of public 
funds, criminal association, civil disobedience, and treason 
after the Supreme Court upheld the lower court's 2004 
conviction and 15-year sentence on February 17.  Critics 
have questioned the independence of the judiciary and the 
political motivation behind the conviction. 
 
¶3.  Following the recent release of the 2005 Human Rights 
Report, the government took the initiative to promptly 
create a senior-level inter-ministerial working group to 
focus on human rights issues and opened a dialogue with 
Embassy to address areas of concern.  The GOR understands 
the importance of improvement in human rights and democracy 
to its chances of becoming eligible for the Millennium 
Challenge Account. 
 
Bilateral Relations 
------------------- 
 
¶4.  Relations between the U.S. and Rwanda are cordial, with 
frequent exchange of views on a range of bilateral, 
regional, and international issues.  The U.S. became 
Rwanda's largest bilateral donor in 2005, with USD 80 
million in assistance to Rwanda that year.  Rwanda is 
eligible for tariff preferences under the African Growth and 
Opportunity Act (AGOA) and will receive USD 72 million in 
new HIV/AIDS assistance under the President's Emergency Plan 
for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR).  Rwanda is taking steps to qualify 
for the Millennium Challenge Account. 
 
Demographics 
------------ 
 
¶5.  Rwanda is Africa's most densely populated country, whose 
8.3 million people live in an area the size of Maryland. 
Government policy downplays ethnic divisions, which had led 
to the genocide, but the three traditional ethnic groups are 
Hutu (84 percent), Tutsi (15 percent), and Batwa (1 
percent).  The population is young (almost half under the 
age of 17), and the current population growth rate of 2.7-3 
percent would lead to a doubling of the population by 2030. 
It is a primarily rural society with 85-90 percent of the 
population engaged in subsistence agriculture.  Primary 
exports remain coffee, tea, minerals, and pyrethrum (used in 
insecticides), but new ventures in horticulture, essential 
oils, and peppers are providing additional export 
opportunities.  Eco-tourism is the second largest foreign 
currency-generating industry. 
 
The Rule of Law 
--------------- 
 
¶6.  The Rwandan judiciary has made notable progress since 
the GOR initiated judicial reforms in 2001.  In 2003, a new 
Constitution established the judiciary as a separate branch 
of government, and the GOR continues to make efforts to 
strengthen the independence and capacity of the judiciary. 
In 2004, the regular courts were inoperative for ten months 
due to substantial reforms, including the dismissal and 
replacement of many judges and the training of court 
personnel.  The GOR has plans to increase the presence of 
 
lawyers throughout the country (currently only 147, based 
mostly in the capital) to improve access to legal services 
and to establish circuit courts throughout the country, 
especially in the rural areas, to reduce the backlog of 
pending cases (currently approximately 47,000).  A new legal 
training institute is due to soon begin operation. 
 
The AU Mission 
-------------- 
 
¶7.  The Rwandan Defense Forces (RDF), one of the most 
competent and professional militaries in sub-Saharan Africa, 
have deployed 2,022 troops to the African Union Mission in 
Sudan (AMIS).  In addition to RDF soldiers and officers 
serving in six-month rotations as force protection and 
military observers in Darfur, there are 50 civilian police 
serving under AMIS and 250 RDF troops in Khartoum in support 
of the United Nations Mission in Sudan (UNMIS).  The USG has 
been providing logistical and training support for the 
Rwandan contribution to AMIS since initial deployment in 
August 2004.  The U.S. Air Force and U.S.-funded contract 
airlines have provided transport for all troop deployments, 
and U.S. contractors have conducted training for over 2,900 
RDF soldiers in preparation for the Darfur deployments; an 
additional 530 are currently being trained. 
 
Regional Ties 
------------- 
 
¶8.  The U.S. has taken the lead in promoting regional 
stability by fostering improved cooperation among Rwanda, 
the Congo, and other countries in the Great Lakes region. 
While there is still mutual distrust, Rwanda's relations 
with the Congo and Burundi have improved.  After the August 
elections in Burundi, the Rwanda-Burundi relationship has 
steadily improved, with the training of Burundian military 
officers by the RDF.  Relations with Uganda, although still 
lukewarm, have also improved, although it remains to be seen 
whether President Kagame will accept Uganda's invitation to 
attend the May 12 presidential inauguration of newly re- 
elected Museveni.  Reduced tensions will promote regional 
stability, enhancing prospects for economic and social 
development.  Rwanda anticipates joining the East African 
Community and has the support of Kenya, Tanzania, and 
regional countries, but the membership process, originally 
scheduled to be completed by early 2006, has been prolonged 
by Uganda. 
 
Political Pluralism 
------------------- 
 
¶9.  In 2003, President Kagame was elected to a seven-year 
term with 95 percent of the votes, and members of Parliament 
were elected.  In February 2006, local officials were 
elected to five-year terms in local elections, and in early 
March 2006 the new mayor of Kigali City was elected.  The 
next legislative elections will be held in 2008, 
Presidential elections in 2010, and local elections in 2011. 
The 2003 presidential and legislative elections were 
peaceful but marred by irregularities.  The most recent 
elections (local elections) were generally considered free 
and fair, with no indication of coercion, harassment, or 
intimidation of voters.  The extent of opposition 
participation in the political process was limited, with 
relatively few non-RPF candidates, which raised questions 
about possible political influence in the selection of 
candidates. 
 
Economic Development 
-------------------- 
 
¶10.  Rwanda's economy remains largely dependent upon foreign 
aid, while its population remains overwhelmingly rural with 
85-90 percent of families earning a living through 
subsistence agriculture and 60 percent of households living 
below the poverty line.  However, Rwanda has achieved an 
average GDP growth rate of 6 percent over the past five 
years and increased the total value of exports by 23 percent 
in 2005.  The government has established important oversight 
for managing the economic health of the country, including 
in the areas of tax collection, banking, trade agreements, 
anti-corruption, and fiscal policy.  It has improved road 
conditions throughout the country, and maintained a low 
corruption rate relative to neighboring countries.  In 1996, 
there were a total of 91 parastatal enterprises; 51 of those 
enterprises were privatized by the end of 2004. 
Privatization of the telecommunications and banking sectors 
have been completed, and Electrogaz is scheduled to be 
 
privatized in FY 2008. 
 
Poverty Reduction 
----------------- 
 
¶11.  The government has made efforts, with measurable 
results, to reduce poverty and to improve access to health 
care and education, despite its severely limited resources. 
Under its national policy of universal primary education, 
the GOR provides free primary education to all children.  A 
joint GOR-donor task force is focusing on improvement of 
girls' education.  The GOR is also attempting to improve 
access to health care through greater decentralization to 
ensure adequate health services at the local level.  In 
addition, it has implemented plans for the prevention, 
protection, and reintegration of street children (currently 
7,000 out of 4.2 million children), including vocational 
training to promote self-reliance through development of 
income-generating skills. 
 
¶12.  Rwanda has a Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper tied to 
its participation in the Heavily Indebted Poor Country 
(HIPC) debt relief initiative.  Rwanda met HIPC requirements 
in 2005 and significantly reduced its overall debt, but 
faces challenges due to food insecurity resulting from less- 
than-anticipated rainfall in recent months and insufficient 
energy capacity.  Anticipated GDP growth is estimated at 3-5 
percent, while inflation is likely to decrease to 5 percent. 
 
Global Health 
------------- 
 
¶13.  HIV/AIDS:  Recent results of a 2005 demographic and 
health survey, preliminarily but not yet officially released 
by the GOR, indicate a national HIV prevalence rate of 3.0 
percent (3.6 percent for women, 2.3 percent for men).  The 
survey suggests that women are contracting HIV/AIDS at a 
younger age than men and that for both sexes prevalence in 
urban areas is approximately three times higher than in 
rural areas.  Over the next five years, the USG's PEPFAR 
program in Rwanda will provide 50,000 people with ARV 
treatment, prevent 158,000 new HIV infections, and provide 
care and support to 250,000 people affected by HIV/AIDs, 
including orphans and vulnerable children.  FY06 PEPFAR 
funding for Rwanda is approximately USD 72 million. 
 
¶14.  Malaria:  Rwanda is among a short list of four 
countries currently under consideration for FY07 funding 
under the President's Malaria Initiative, a five-year, USD 
1.2 billion effort to rapidly expand malaria prevention and 
treatment in seven sub-Saharan African countries.  Funding 
in FY07 will total USD 135 million for the seven countries. 
Three countries -- Angola, Uganda, and Tanzania -- were 
previously selected to launch the Initiative. 
 
USAID Assistance 
---------------- 
 
¶15.  Democracy and Governance:  The USAID Democracy and 
Governance program focuses on three areas: local government, 
civil society, and reconciliation.  The agency supports 
decentralized governance through an innovative program in 
which health and governance objectives combine to ensure 
local management and delivery of high quality health 
services.  The program is intended to demonstrate ability 
for local governments to manage and fund public services. 
The program is complemented by a civil society program that 
will give over 400 small grants to local organizations that 
provide services, income generation, or other economic 
development opportunities.  The agency also supports a 
series of smaller projects related to reconciliation, such 
as activities in women's micro-finance, women's legal 
rights, land policy and law, and youth trauma therapy. 
 
¶16.  Specialty Coffee:  In 2001 when USAID spearheaded the 
specialty coffee sector in Rwanda, the country produced only 
low-grade commercial quality beans for export despite coffee 
being Rwanda's traditional number one export earner.  Over 
the past five years, USAID has invested an estimated USD 10 
million in promoting and developing the Rwandan coffee 
industry, building and rehabilitating coffee washing 
stations, training farmers and "cuppers"(coffee tasters), 
organizing cooperatives, encouraging banks to lend to 
Rwandan investors to build coffee washing stations, and 
improving rural infrastructure.  Today, Rwandan coffee has 
become known as one of the "best of the best" coffees in the 
world.  In 2005, Rwanda exported 1,100 tons of high quality 
specialty coffee, earning top prices for the coffee growers. 
 
These coffee revenues have resulted in better health care, 
education, and housing in coffee farming communities, giving 
Rwandan farmers hope for a better future.  Most recently, on 
March 14, Starbucks launched a promotional campaign 
featuring the best of Rwandan coffee which will be seen by 
an estimated 19 million customers per week in over 5,000 
Starbucks retail stores throughout the U.S. 
 
Mission Staffing 
---------------- 
 
¶17.  The Mission consists of 42 direct-hire Americans 
(including 3 NEC project personnel assigned by OBO), 7 
American contractors, 8 Eligible Family Member positions and 
185 locally engaged staff spread among State, USAID, Defense 
and CDC.  The post has grown by 20 percent over the past two 
years, including the activation of a Marine Security Guard 
Detachment, and is likely to expand further.  Construction 
of a new Embassy compound is under way and is scheduled for 
completion in 2007.