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Viewing cable 06KIEV1177, UKRAINE: POST-ELECTION DAY DEVELOPMENTS

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06KIEV1177 2006-03-27 14:59 2011-08-30 01:44 CONFIDENTIAL Embassy Kyiv
This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KIEV 001177 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/27/2016 
TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM RU
SUBJECT: UKRAINE: POST-ELECTION DAY DEVELOPMENTS 
 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Aubrey Carlson for reasons 1.4(a,b,d 
). 
 
1. (SBU) Summary:  Ballot counting for the March 26 national 
parliamentary vote (ref B) proceeded without significant 
incident throughout the night and into the morning of 27 
March, with official results slowly coming in through the day 
and approaching the exit polling results by the national 
consortium of local pollsters.  International observer 
reports gave the election high marks, noting mainly 
administrative problems caused by concurrent local and 
parliamentary elections and challenges in administering voter 
lists.  Kiev has remained quiet with no sign of protests, and 
few complaints from parties about the election.  Overall 
turnout for the election was 67.13 percent, according to the 
Central Election Commission (CEC).  End summary. 
 
Exit Polls 
---------- 
2. (SBU) Final exit polling by the USG-funded national 
consortium, if accurate, would put the Orange trio of parties 
comfortably over the 225 required for majority at 255, and 
make an Orange coalition a viable option and a 
Regions-Communist alliance untenable.  Other exit polls had 
Speaker Lytvyn's bloc squeaking into the Rada, but only one 
(that of the Party of Regions) suggested numbers that would 
preclude a pure Orange majority.  The national consortium 
final numbers (and their translation into numbers of Rada 
seats) were as follows: 
 
                  vote        seats 
Regions           31          176 
Tymoshenko        23.9        136 
Our Ukraine       15.5         88 
Socialists         5.4         31 
Communists         3.3         19 
 
Ballot counting 
--------------- 
3. (SBU) Ballot counting went on throuout the night, without 
serious incident, but with a variety of minor organizational 
issues.  Embassy observers deployed throughout Ukraine 
reported some polling stations finished their parliamentary 
vote counts as early as about 2 am, while others lasted at 
late as 11 am (with the local election counts still ahead). 
Embassy observation overnight included a number of minor 
infractions, and in some cases serious disorganization, but 
no serious problems.  In Simferopol, observers estimated that 
1-3 percent of the electorate was not on the voter lists, and 
one local polling station had several people added to their 
list by the local court (in apparent contradiction of the 
law, since Yushchenko did not sign legislation that would 
have allowed this practice).  Kiev observers were also told 
by precinct officials who appeared to be acting in good faith 
that individuals with a court order could get their names 
added to the list -- evidence of some administrative 
confusion at the local levels.  Committee of Voters of 
Ukraine (CVU) observers also noted this confusion but 
indicated the practice was not massive and could not be used 
to cancel election results even at select polling stations. 
 
4. (U) CEC official results came in slowly throughout the 
day, inching slowly toward exit poll numbers.  With 44.94 
percent of precincts reporting at 7:10 pm, the official votes 
tally stood at: 
 
Regions           26.98 percent 
Tymoshenko        22.63 
Our Ukraine       16.28 
Socialists         7.10 
Communists         3.54 
----------3% threshold-------- 
Lytvyn             2.70 
Kostenko-Plyushch  2.36 
Vitrenko           2.22 
PORA-PRP           1.45 
Viche              1.43 
 
International Observer Reports 
------------------------------ 
5. (U) OSCE, IRI (International Republic Institute), and 
ENEMO (European Network of Election Monitoring Organizations) 
observation missions all gave favorable reports on the 
election process and commended the calm, peaceful environment 
on election day.  Deputy Head of the OSCE observer mission 
Riccardo Cherlleri told us that overall the election was a 
step forward even from the December 2004 presidential 
re-vote.  ENEMO noted there were no reports of centralized 
misuse of administrative resource and only isolated cases of 
pressure from local directors or employers, and IRI's 
election observation delegation declared the election open 
and transparent.  The OSCE preliminary report on 26 March 
assessed the election was in compliance with domestic law, 
OSCE and Council of Europe committments, and noted that the 
overwhelming majority of voters were able to exercise their 
voting rights with virtually no serious incidents. 
6. (U) Drawbacks that were noted included delays in the 
formation of polling stations, ill-defined campaign finance 
legal requirements leading to a lack of transparency and 
accountability, and some 1,400 polling stations where the 
number of registered voters exceeded the legal maximum 
contributing to potential disenfranchisement, and the scope 
and timing of the voter registration overhaul placing 
responsibily on local authorities that underestimated the 
challenges.  The report noted that regionally specific 
allegations of inaccuracies in voter lists were only verified 
on a limited basis, and that overcrowding or long lings were 
reported in 9 percent of polling stations visited.  OSCE 
observers were denied full access to the tabulation of 
results in three DECs (District Election Commissions) in 
Luhansk, Poltava, and Sumy, and observers reported some 
serious concerns regarding vote tabulation in the Kirovohrad 
DEC.  Both OSCE and ENEMO commended the CEC for functioning 
in a professional, fair, and transparent manner. 
 
Party Complaints 
---------------- 
7. (C) In stark contrast to its pre-election stance, Regions 
has been mostly silent on election problems so far, going so 
far as to say publicly that the election had gone without 
large-scale falsifications.  (Comment:  Regions' first-place 
showing in the election may be enough incentive for the party 
to withhold criticism.  Also, the coalition formation games 
that are now in full tilt may explain the Regions' decision 
to play nice.  See ref A.) 
 
8. (U) Tymoshenko's camp has alleged that many polling 
stations in Donetsk starting at 12:30 pm March 27 refused to 
provide her party representatives with voting protocols, 
making it impossible to conduct the planned parallel vote 
count, and that subsequent large fluctuations in the number 
of votes in Donetsk signified that that vote was being 
manipulated against BYuT and Our Ukraine. 
 
9. (SBU) In Ternopil, Embassy observers reported that 
PORA-PRP and Kostenko-Plyushch blocs claimed to have video 
footage of 200 people being given ballots without signing the 
register, and were taking the case to court.  Despite much 
hoopla just before the vote about thousands of law suits in 
the offing, there have been no concrete signs of action of 
any sort by Ne Tak.  Vitrenko's threat to bring 50,000 
supporters to the Maidan has yet to materialize, and Kiev 
streets remained quiet througout the day, with the major 
parties apparently absorbed in coalition talks (ref A).  The 
maidan website reported mid-afternoon that Vitrenko was 
planning to stage protests in Kiev and Dnipropetrovsk, 
blaming Our Ukraine for stealing votes from her bloc, and the 
site alleged she would pay protestors 10 UAH per hour. 
 
Kiev City Election 
------------------ 
 
10. (U) CVU indicated that a party (NFI) had instructed DEC 
representatives not to sign protocols for the Kiev mayoral 
election, which CVU representative Poberezhnyy characterized 
as a warning.  He suggested that some parties were interested 
in invalidating the mayoral election and called on the 
electoral commissions to ignore instructions from their 
parties and fulfill their responsibilities.  Early returns 
showed both MP Leonid Chernovetsky and former boxing champion 
Klychko leading over incumbent Mayor Omelchenko, but we would 
note that these early returns conflict with pre-election 
surveys indicating Omelchenko would win handily. 
 
11. (U) Visit Embassy Kiev's classified website: 
www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/kiev. 
Herbst