VZCZCXRO6716
OO RUEHCHI RUEHDT RUEHHM
DE RUEHJA #3246/01 0721224
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 131224Z MAR 06
FM AMEMBASSY JAKARTA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1003
INFO RUEHZS/ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS IMMEDIATE
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA IMMEDIATE 9194
RUEHPB/AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY IMMEDIATE 3012
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO IMMEDIATE 9683
RUEHWL/AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON IMMEDIATE 0694
RHHMUNA/USCINCPAC HONOLULU HI IMMEDIATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 JAKARTA 003246 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/13/2016 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINS ID
SUBJECT: SUEBU, ATURURI LIKELY WINNERS IN CONTROVERSIAL 
PAPUAN ELECTIONS 
 
REF: A. JAKARTA 3160 (PROVINCIAL ELECTIONS LIKELY TO 
 
        SEAL PARTITION OF PAPUA) 
     ¶B. 05 JAKARTA 15417 (VICE PRESIDENT KALLA BROKERS 
        PAPUA SETTLEMENT) 
 
JAKARTA 00003246  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
Classified By: B. Lynn Pascoe, Ambassador.  Reason: 1.4 (b, d) 
 
¶1. (C) Summary:  Preliminary results indicate that Barnabas 
"Bas" Suebu and Alex Hesegem were elected as governor and 
vice governor of Papua province on Friday, March 10.  On the 
following day, incumbent Abraham Atururi and Rahimin Katjong 
won in neighboring West Irian Jaya province, prevailing over 
the controversial Golkar candidate Yorrys Raweyai in an 
election that many Papuans believe never should have been 
held.  The only reported violence did not take place in West 
Irian Jaya as some had feared (reftel A paras 9 -10), but 
rather in a mountainous regency of Papua where residents were 
angered by the defeat of a local favorite son.  The Papuan 
People's Council (Majles Rakyat Papua, MRP), which had 
rejected the West Irian Jaya election as consolidating the 
partition of Papua into the two provinces, is considering 
next steps, such as legal action.  The central government 
could best defuse the escalating political confrontation by 
taking credible actions to reaffirm its good faith commitment 
to full implementation of the Special Autonomy Law.   End 
summary. 
 
Slim Lead For Suebu-Hesegem in Papua 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶2. (SBU) As Monday, March 13, Barnabas "Bas" Suebu and his 
running mate Alex Hesegem held a slim lead over four other 
tickets in the March 10 election for governor of Papua 
province.  Although Suebu is a senior member of Golkar, 
former President Megawati invited him to head the PDI-P 
ticket in Papua.  With 16 of 20 regencies reporting, he holds 
a slim lead (29-30 percent of the vote counted so far) over 
Lukas Enembe and Arobi Ahmad "Robby" Aituarauw (28 percent). 
As long as Suebu's percentage remains above 25 percent, he 
can avoid a runoff.  The Golkar ticket John Ibo-Pascalis 
Kosay is in third place, with about 23 percent.  Two other 
tickets headed by former deputy governor Konstan Karma andQ 
Henk Wabiser, a former admiral, trailed in fourth and fifth 
place. 
 
¶3. (SBU) In the only reported instance of violence in either 
Papua or West Irian Jaya, supporters of local favorite son 
Enembe trashed an electoral office in Mulia, Puncak Jaya 
regency, because they were unhappy with the results of the 
electoral count.  No arrests were made, according to media 
reports.  We expect a final result later this week.  If Suebu 
maintains his lead, he will be sworn in next month. 
 
¶4. (SBU) The race in Papua province was observed by the 
domestic monitoring NGO JPPR, which reported that it found 
problems with voter lists but no instances of wholesale 
fraud.  JPPR attributed the problems it found to sloppiness 
and inefficiency. 
 
Clash Averted in West Irian Jaya 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (C) Despite predictions of conflict and boycotts of the 
March 11 election in West Irian Jaya (reftel A), polling 
appears to have been peaceful.  There is moreover no 
indication that voters heeded calls to boycott the vote, 
suggesting that the MRP's protests did not fall on fertile 
ground in West Irian Jaya.  Interim results vary but all show 
Abraham "Bram" Atururi, who with his deputy Rahimin Katjong 
ran on the PDI-P ticket, with a wide lead over his Golkar 
opponents, DPD member Yorrys Raweyai and Abdul Killian.  One 
interim result gives Atururi 62 percent of the vote.  Another 
ticket composed of Decky Asmuruf and Ali Kastella trails in a 
distant third place. 
 
¶6. (C) Despite having been required to having step down last 
summer in favor of a civil servant caretaker governor, 
Atururi seems to have benefited from his previous incumbency 
and the loyalty of the large Arfak ethnic group in the 
Manokwari area.  In a conversation with poloff before 
stepping down last April, Atururi had confidently predicted 
his reelection, noting that he had political backing in 
Sorong as a result of a previous tenure there as regent, and 
had built a new base of support in Manokwari.  Atururi 
himself calculated that these bases, comprising the majority 
of West Irian Jaya's population, would deliver roughly sixty 
 
JAKARTA 00003246  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
percent of the vote. 
 
¶7. (SBU) The West Irian Jaya race was also closely watched 
because of the controversial presence of Yorrys, head of a 
thuggish political militia in the last years of the Suharto 
era.  Yorrys has said that he will appeal the election 
results because many voters in Sorong and Fak-fak did not 
receive voter ID cards in time.  Despite these claims, 
leaders of his Yorrys' own party in Sorong have called 
Atururi the winner, and the monitoring group JPPR has said 
that is has not yet received reports of any major 
irregularities. 
 
MRP Contemplating Next Steps 
---------------------------- 
 
¶8. (C) As reported reftel A, the Papuan People's Assembly 
(Majles Rakyat Papua, MRP), believed that the West Irian Jaya 
elections should not have been held until a new legal basis 
was agreed for the existence of the province.  This is a view 
shared by elites in Papua province as well.  In a March 13 
discussion with poloff, Pastor Phil Erari addressed the issue 
in more detail.  Erari is an associate of Bas Suebu, who 
appears set to become Papua's next governor, and is also 
close to MRP Chairman Agus Alua.  He said that Vice President 
Kalla had reneged on his November deal (reftel B) on a 
comprehensive settlement to the Papua question, and that the 
MRP believed it had grounds for legal action.  Erari said 
that the MRP interprets paragraph 73 of the implementing 
regulation for the Special Autonomy Law as requiring its 
input on the status of West Irian Jaya.  By ignoring this and 
holding direct elections, the central government has violated 
the Special Autonomy Law, Erari argued. 
 
¶9. (C) Kalla publicly stated last Friday that he does not 
regard the Special Autonomy as applicable in West Irian Jaya, 
a position with puts him at even greater odds with the MRP. 
Erari said that the question now being argued among the MRP, 
the government of Papua province, and various indigenous 
groups is whether to continue to accept Special Autonomy as 
the basis for dialogue with the central government.  Erari 
said that Suebu and the MRP are committed to salvaging it, 
while more radical groups want to formally repudiate it and 
hold a referendum on the future of Papua's relationship with 
the central government.  This is a step that the central 
government would consider provocative at best and outright 
separatism at worst. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶10. (C) While we welcome the fact that there was no real 
violence in connection with last weekend's elections, it is 
clear that relations between the central government, on the 
one hand, and the MRP and Papuan political elites on the 
other, are rapidly eroding.  This is not necessarily the 
death knell for the Special Autonomy law, since its most 
important political institution, the MRP, and its 
revenue-sharing provisions are still in place.  With British 
Petroleum's new Tangguh liquefied natural gas project located 
in West Irian Jaya, the financial stakes of the status of the 
province are high, since the operation will eventually become 
an important contributor to Special Autonomy revenues.  For 
the situation to improve, the central government must somehow 
reaffirm its commitment to Special Autonomy, preferably by 
fulfilling its promise to issue a new legal regulation on the 
status of West Irian Jaya, drawing on input from the MRP and 
the provincial government of Papua as plainly stipulated 
under the Special Autonomy Law. 
PASCOE