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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 HALIFAX 000057 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
FOR WHA/CAN 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV CA
SUBJECT: PROVINCIAL POLITICS IN ATLANTIC CANADA: WHO'S IN TROUBLE AND 
WHO ISN'T 
 
 
HALIFAX 00000057  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
¶1.  SUMMARY:  With spring legislative sessions due to start soon 
in Atlantic Canada, we have taken a political snapshot at each 
of the four provinces to see just where each of the four 
governments (all currently Tory blue) stand.  New Brunswick and 
Nova Scotia, with their minority governments, present the most 
interesting cases, especially since the respective premiers are 
weighting the merits of calling snap elections.  As for 
Newfoundland-Labrador and Prince Edward Island, both provinces 
are in the solid grip of strong governments that undoubtedly 
will have no trouble living out their mandates.  Another aspect 
to the current political situation in the region is the 
influence of the federal Tories and how new national policies 
might help or harm their provincial cousins.  END SUMMARY 
 
¶2.  New Brunswick 
= = = = = = = = = = = = = 
 
--Lt. Governor:  Hermenegilde Chiasson (Appointed for a five 
year term on August 26, 2003) 
 
--Premier: Bernard Lord - Progressive Conservatives Party of New 
Brunswick 
 
--Most Recent Election: June 9, 2003 
 
--Current party standings in the House: (55 seats in total) 
     Progressive Conservatives: 27 seats (Leader:  Bernard Lord 
since 1997) 
     Liberals:  26 seats (Leader:  Shawn Graham since 2002) 
     New Democratic Party:  0 seats (Leader: Allison Brewer 
since 2005 - does not have a seat of her own yet) 
     Independents:  2 seats 
 
--Election history:  Bernard Lord and his Conservative party 
have governed New Brunswick since they overturned the incumbent 
Liberals in the June 1999 election. 
 
--Current Environment: Election-watchers in New Brunswick are 
divided in their predictions on the fate of Premier Lord and his 
governing Tory party.  The party recently lost its one seat 
majority in the Legislature when a disgruntled backbencher left 
the party to sit as an independent after a spat with the Premier 
over a cabinet post.  This defection has left the Tories in a 
precarious situation with just weeks to go before they need to 
get their annual budget passed in the Legislature.  Without a 
majority in the Legislature, the Premier is in danger of having 
the Opposition Liberals defeat the budget, a move which would 
trigger a provincial general election.  Accordingly, Premier 
Lord is left with having to decide on two scenarios:  number 
one, try to convince the former Tory to support the budget which 
would keep the government in power, or number two, table the 
budget and then call a snap election before the Legislature has 
a chance to vote on it. 
 
Opinions are varied on which of these scenarios the Premier will 
chose, but in recent days, more cynical commentators are saying 
the issue could be settled by money, specifically, legislative 
pensions.  It appears that 20 members of the House (including 
the ex-Tory) need only one more legislative session in order to 
quality for their pensions.  The dilemma for these members is 
that if they help prop up the Lord government so it makes it 
through the next session, they would get their pensions. 
However, if the government falls and there is an election they 
would only get the pension if they were re-elected - an iffy 
prospect for some of the members.  With the budget vote 
scheduled for April 7, the Premier's decision will not be long 
coming. 
 
¶3. Nova Scotia 
= = = = = = = = = = = = = 
 
--Lt. Governor: Myra Freeman (Appointed for a five-year term in 
May 2000 which has been extended until a new LG is chosen.) 
 
--Premier: Rodney MacDonald - Progressive Conservative 
 
--Most Recent Election: August 5, 2003 
 
--Current Party Standings in the House: (52 seats in total) 
     Progressive Conservatives: 25 (Leader: Rodney MacDonald 
since Feb 11, 2006) 
     New Democratic Party: 15 (Leader: Darrell Dexter since June 
4, 2001) 
     Liberal Party:  10 (Leader: Francis MacKenzie since Oct 23, 
2004 - does not have a seat of his own yet) 
     Independent: 1 
     Vacant: 1 
 
--Election History:  The Progressive Conservatives have been 
 
HALIFAX 00000057  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
governing Nova Scotia since July 1999 when they defeated the 
incumbent Liberal government by a wide majority. 
 
--Current Environment: Nova Scotians appear to be quite happy 
with their newly minted Premier, 34-year old Rodney MacDonald, 
who took over from the now-retired former Premier John Hamm in 
February.  Despite the change in leadership, the face of the new 
government is unlikely to change significantly.  Premier 
MacDonald has kept most of the Hamm cabinet members and has done 
nothing as yet to shake the fragile coalition with the 
Opposition parties that has kept his minority government in 
power.  However, a recent public opinion poll shows the new 
MacDonald government with significant support over the 
opposition, a fact which may tempt the new Premier to call a 
snap election in an attempt to get his own mandate.  As with the 
situation in New Brunswick, the answer to the question of 
whether Nova Scotians will be going to the polls should be known 
before too long as the spring session of the legislature is due 
to start shortly. 
 
 
¶4. Newfoundland and Labrador 
= = = = = = = = = = = = = 
 
--Lt. Governor:  Edward M. Roberts (Appointed for a five year 
term on November 1, 2002) 
 
--Premier: Danny Williams (Party: Progressive Conservative) 
 
--Most recent election: October 21, 2003 
 
--Current Party Standings in the House (48 seats in total) 
     Conservatives 35 (Leader: Danny Williams since April 7, 
2001) 
     Liberals: 11 (Leader: Jim Bennett since February 6, 2006. 
Has no seat.) 
     New Democratic Party: 2 (Leader: Jack Harris since 
November, 1992; retiring in May 2006) 
 
--Election History: With their win in the October 2003 
provincial election, Premier Williams and his Tories upset a 
12-year old Liberal government. 
 
--Current Environment: Premier Williams and his Progressive 
Conservative party are enjoying a very comfortable majority. 
With an approval rating of approximately 70 percent, the Tories 
have a solid grip on the province leaving the Opposition 
liberals and NDP floundering.  For the most part, the Premier, 
with a reputation as a staunch fighter for his province, is the 
principal reason behind this support.  In particular Williams' 
recent defense of Canada's annual seal hunt in the face of harsh 
criticism by rock superstar Paul McCartney even swayed over some 
of the Premier's harshest critics.  However, it is Williams' 
tough resource policy which consistently garners him the most 
favor.  The Premier has been unwavering in his threat that 
Newfoundland-Labrador's significant petroleum and hydro 
electricity resources will go undeveloped unless the province 
gets better royalty deals than those for existing energy 
projects.  Expect smooth sailing for the Williams government 
with no clouds on the horizon as yet. 
 
¶5. Prince Edward Island 
= = = = = = = = = = = = = 
 
--Lt. Governor: J. Leonce Bernard (Appointed for a five year 
term on May 28, 2001) 
 
--Premier: Patrick Binns (Party: Progressive Conservatives) 
 
--Most Recent Election: September 29, 2003 
 
--Current Party Standings in the House (27 seats in total) 
 Conservatives: 23 (Leader: Patrick Binns since May 4, 1996) 
 Liberals:  4 (Leader: Robert Ghiz since April 5, 2003) 
     New Democratic Party:  0 (Leadership convention April 22, 
2006) 
 
--Election History:  Pat Binns and the Progressive Conservatives 
have been governing Prince Edward Island since 1996 when they 
overturned a 10-year incumbent Liberal government. 
 
--Current Environment: Premier Binns and his ruling Conservative 
party have a solid hold on the Island electorate, consistently 
earning high scores in public opinion polls.  This situation has 
made it difficult for the Opposition Liberals to make any 
inroads and they continue to suffer from only a token 
representation in the Legislature.  Just this week, the Liberals 
were further demoralized by their loss in a provincial 
by-election which, had they won, would have given them a much 
 
HALIFAX 00000057  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
needed new seat and a significant psychological boost. 
 
¶6.  COMMENT:  An interesting sidebar to this snapshot is the 
influence of the new Harper government in Ottawa. As one 
political commentator remarked recently the issue here is money 
- money for health care, money for childcare, money for tax cuts 
and rebates and the list goes on.  At the moment, Atlantic 
Canadians are looking for some action from Ottawa on these 
issues and the regional pollsters point out that the voters' 
perception is that they are more likely to see results if the 
federal government and the four provincial governments are all 
of the same political stripe.  Whether that federal influence 
continues to have a positive impact or not remains to be seen, 
but at least for now, the voters are hopeful that their 
respective governments can and will work with Ottawa to come up 
with some new solutions to some old problems.  END COMMENT 
HILL