VZCZCXRO9037
PP RUEHFK RUEHKSO RUEHNAG RUEHNH
DE RUEHFK #0021/01 0740837
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 150837Z MAR 06
FM AMCONSUL FUKUOKA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0178
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO PRIORITY 0184
INFO RUEHKSO/AMCONSUL SAPPORO PRIORITY 0075
RUEHNAG/AMCONSUL NAGOYA PRIORITY 0074
RUEHOK/AMCONSUL OSAKA KOBE PRIORITY 0083
RUEHNH/AMCONSUL NAHA PRIORITY 0079
RUEHKO/USDAO TOKYO JA
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
RHOVVKG/COMSEVENTHFLT
RHMFIUU/COMNAVFORJAPAN YOKOSUKA JA
RHMFIUU/COMUSJAPAN YOKOTA AB JA
RHMFIUU/COMFLEACT SASEBO JA
RHFMIUU/COMFLEACT YOKOSUKA JA
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHMFIUU/NAF ATSUGI JA
RHEFDIA/USOFFICE DIA WASHINGTON DC
RHMFIUU/USMCACT MCAS IWAKUNI JP
RUEHFK/AMCONSUL FUKUOKA 0196

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 FUKUOKA 000021 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV MARR PREL SOCI JA
SUBJECT: IWAKUNI REFERENDUM BOOSTS MAYOR'S PROSPECTS, BUT WORRIES 
YAMAGUCHI LDP AND BUSINESS CIRCLES 
 
 
Sensitive But Unclassified - please protect accordingly. 
 
¶1. (SBU)  The March 12 referendum in Iwakuni City, in which 87% 
of the participants voted to oppose the transfer of the USS 
Kitty Hawk air carrier wing from Atsugi to Marine Corps Air 
Station (MCAS) Iwakuni under proposed U.S. forces realignment 
plans, appears to have produced one clear winner:  current 
Iwakuni mayor Katsusuke Ihara.  Ihara proposed and pushed the 
referendum amidst opposition from the city council, local 
chamber of commerce, and mayors of surrounding towns that are 
scheduled to be merged with Iwakuni on March 20.  He forged a 
successful support coalition among disparate community groups 
opposed to the air wing transfer, then campaigned vigorously to 
boost turnout in the final days before the vote.  As a result, 
he now appears to be the strong favorite to win the April 23 
mayoral election for the soon-to-be enlarged and post-merger 
Iwakuni City. 
 
¶2. (SBU)  Ihara's success in getting a 58% voter turnout for the 
referendum can be attributed to local citizens' anxieties - 
realistic or not - about the potential impact of the air wing 
transfer on their quality of life.  Expectations of increased 
aircraft noise and paranoia that a larger U.S. military presence 
will lead to more crime appear to have been major factors.  At a 
March 8 press day hosted by MCAS Iwakuni (whose timing so close 
to the referendum date was purely coincidental), base officials 
took pains to emphasize that the new offshore runway under 
construction since 1996 would mitigate noise on aircraft 
takeoffs and landings.  However, citizens interviewed by the 
press in the days prior to the vote said that greater frequency 
of flights, particularly low-level training flights over 
surrounding areas, was the biggest noise concern, not takeoffs 
and landings per se.  Local schoolteachers and PTA groups, who 
claim current flights already routinely disrupt classroom study, 
were among the most active supporters of Ihara's initiative.  In 
addition, a small group representing local victims of crimes 
committed by U.S. military personnel actively campaigned for the 
referendum by making alarmist claims that assaults and thefts 
would rise if the transfer goes through. 
 
¶2. (SBU) The referendum's opponents, including local supporters 
of MCAS Iwakuni, originally argued that the plebiscite was a 
vote against the U.S.-Japan security alliance, a line that 
gained little traction with city residents.  In the month 
preceding the vote, they got better mileage from arguments that: 
1) the referendum was a waste of municipal resources; 2) the 
vote would be meaningless as it concerned a national defense 
issue; and 3) Mayor Ihara was simply using the vote as a pretext 
to advance his own political prospects.  Opponents urged voters 
to stay away, and in the final days there were serious questions 
as to whether turnout would reach the 50% level necessary for 
the referendum to be considered valid.  Final turnout (58%) 
comfortably exceeded that threshold, but was still well below 
the level Ihara and his supporters had predicted when the 
referendum was first announced. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Although Ihara must step down on March 19, one day 
before Iwakuni formally merges with seven smaller towns, he will 
run for mayor of the new, larger Iwakuni City in the April 23 
election.  While the referendum is a boost to Ihara's 
re-election hopes, Iwakuni business leaders and LDP party chiefs 
in Yamaguchi Prefecture worry that Ihara is actually in a weaker 
position now in terms of his bargaining power with a central 
government angry over the referendum campaign.  Business 
leaders, as well as mayors of the other towns to be merged with 
Iwakuni, fear that an Ihara re-election will jeopardize expected 
financial subsidies from Tokyo associated with the air wing 
transfer.  The LDP's Yamaguchi chapter is backing Ihara's only 
announced election opponent, 38-year-old business owner (and 
political neophyte) Taro Ajimura.  Party leaders believe Ajimura 
would be better positioned as mayor to deal with the GOJ and 
Yamaguchi Prefectural Government officials on base issues. 
However, as Ajimura is a latecomer to the campaign and has 
little name recognition, even his LDP backers acknowledge that 
his campaign is a long shot. 
 
 
FUKUOKA 00000021  002 OF 002 
 
 
¶5. (SBU) Comment:  The Iwakuni referendum result is further 
evidence that in today's Japan, local citizens increasingly 
demand a say in GOJ actions which affect their communities.  The 
past Japanese practice of simply buying off local acquiescence 
with handsome compensation packages from Tokyo is no longer 
enough.  Post-referendum press interviews with Iwakuni citizens 
indicate that most acknowledge the importance of MCAS Iwakuni to 
the local economy, and are not motivated by any particular 
anti-U.S. sentiment.  Rather, the Iwakuni vote appears to have 
been a call for the need for the central government to actively 
engage in more consultations with local communities on decisions 
affecting their areas, as much as it was a protest vote against 
the air wing transfer itself.  End comment. 
WONG