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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DUSHANBE 000502 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EUR, SCA/CEN, DRL 
NSC FOR MILLARD, MERKEL 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL:  3/15/2016 
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER ECON KDEM RS IR UZ AF TI
SUBJECT: EU SPECIAL REPRESENTATIVE BRIEFS ON MEETING WITH PRESIDENT 
RAHMONOV 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: Richard E. Hoagland, Ambassador, EXEC, Embassy 
Dushanbe. 
REASON: 1.4 (b), (d) 
 
 
 
¶1.  (C) SUMMARY:  In a read-out of his just-concluded meeting 
with President Rahmonov, EU Special Representative for Central 
Asia Kubis said that a calm and confident Rahmonov undertook to 
improve (to a degree) Tajik elections, reasserted his unreserved 
willingness to support coalition efforts in the war on 
terrorism, advocated strongly against any military action in 
Iran, expressed great exasperation with Karimov's Uzbekistan, 
and made clear his intention to balance his relations with large 
powers.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) The Ambassador met for 90 minutes March 15 with EU 
Special Representative for Central Asia Jan Kubis at the 
invitation of French Ambassador Pierre Andrieu.  France is the 
contact embassy in Dushanbe for the EU. 
 
FROM BASKET CASE TO ISLAND OF STABILITY AND GROWTH 
 
¶3.  (C) Kubis had just come from a nearly two-hour meeting with 
President Rahmonov, who characterized Tajikistan as stable and 
quiet, with good prospects for economic development.  He listed 
Tajikistan and Kazakhstan as the two most stable states in the 
region, and Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan as the two poorest, 
needing the most international assistance and investment.  Kubis 
told the Ambassador that, too, was his assessment, and marveled 
at the turn-around Tajikistan has made in the last five years. 
 
"ELECTIONS WILL BE BETTER, BUT~" 
 
¶4.  (C) Rahmonov brushed off a request for his evaluation of the 
Tajik political scene looking toward the presidential election 
at the end of the year, claiming he had too many other 
priorities at this time to pay attention to politics this early 
in the game.  He did note, however, that he believes he has 
genuine support throughout the country and will never "retire 
from an airport," alluding to former Kyrgyz President Akayev's 
escape to Moscow.  Rahmonov also contrasted his solid support 
within the country to President Karimov's in Uzbekistan where, 
he said, only Moscow and Beijing are keeping Karimov afloat. 
 
¶5.  (C) Kubis said his message to Rahmonov on the presidential 
election, building on Rahmonov's own evaluation, was that his 
genuine support within Tajikistan gives him the opportunity to 
conduct a presidential election that will come closer to 
international standards - "We're looking for progress, not 
perfection."  Should Tajikistan show real progress in the next 
election, it would gain increased respect and attention from the 
West.  Rahmonov responded that the elections would be better, 
but wouldn't meet "you're your standards."  He quipped, "If you 
can call those recent laughable elections in Afghanistan 
'democratic,' you won't have too much right to criticize Tajik 
elections." 
 
UNWAVERING SUPPORT FOR THE ANTI-TERRORIST COALITION 
 
¶6.  (C) According to Kubis, Rahmonov's described Afghanistan as 
stabilizing but with a long way still to go.  Rahmonov said 
without any hesitation that Tajikistan "will continue to support 
the anti-terrorist coalition and will cooperate fully."  Kubis 
said the question of a U.S. military base in Tajikistan to 
replace Karshi-Khanabad did not come up explicitly, but he was 
 
DUSHANBE 00000502  002 OF 003 
 
 
convinced Rahmonov was sending a clear signal that he would be 
open to considering such cooperation.  (COMMENT:  Rahmonov's 
formulation is very close to the wording he used with Secretary 
of Defense Rumsfeld in July 2005 and in October with Secretary 
of State Rice.  END COMMENT.) 
 
¶7.  (C) Continuing on Afghanistan, Rahmonov said he wants to 
make a push for Afghanistan to join the Shanghai Cooperation 
Organization (SCO) as a full member.  That would give three 
"small states" - Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Afghanistan - voices to 
balance the three "big states" - Kazakhstan, and the dominant 
powers Russia and China. 
 
"DO NOT INVADE IRAN" 
 
¶8.  (C) Kubis reported Rahmonov said Tajikistan's relations with 
Iran are stable.  He admitted that Tajikistan had been leery of 
President Amadinejad at first, but has not yet seen any evidence 
that he is attempting to export his hard-line positions to 
Tajikistan.  Rahmonov added he is not at all happy with Iran's 
nuclear ambitions, but he forcefully advocated against any 
military action against Tehran.  He told Kubis, "Iran is not a 
house of cards like Iraq was.  It is strong, relatively rich, 
and the population is generally unified and nationalistic. 
Further, with 10 million Iranians abroad, it has to be taken 
into consideration how many of them would be radicalized by a 
Western military assault on Iran." 
 
"WHO CAN DO ANYTHING WITH UZBEKISTAN?" 
 
¶9.  (C) Rahmonov, said Kubis, went on at length, highly 
criticizing Karimov's Uzbekistan.  He evidenced great 
exasperation that Tashkent is preventing regional integration. 
He expressed guarded hope that Uzbekistan's recent accession to 
the Eurasian Economic Community (EEC) will mitigate some of 
Karimov's recalcitrance in the region because on June 1 
Uzbekistan will have to begin meeting EEC standards on demining 
borders, visa regimes, and transportation links among members. 
Rahmonov also said he hopes Uzbekistan joins the Collective 
Security Treaty Organization because that would give Tajikistan 
a legal-entity forum to insist that Karimov stop using exiled 
Tajik Colonel Khudoberdiyev as a threat against Tajikistan.  But 
in the end, Rahmonov said, there's little hope for any 
improvement so long as Karimov sits in Tashkent. 
 
"WE AREN'T ANYONE'S PUPPETS" 
 
¶10.  (C) Speaking of Tajikistan vis-`-vis the major powers, 
Rahmonov told Kubis, "We don't want to be puppets in anyone's 
hands.  We know some are playing with us, but we want to keep 
all channels open.  If we are treated honestly and with respect, 
we will respond equally."  Kubis commented to the Ambassador he 
took this to mean that Rahmonov is reasonably cautious about 
Russia's full-court press.  The Ambassador said his message to 
Rahmonov is that the U.S. does not play zero-sum games.  We 
recognize Russia's natural interests in the region.  At the same 
time, we want to ensure Tajikistan's sovereignty and 
independence and that it not become a less-than-sovereign 
satellite of any power.  Kubis said that is exactly the same 
message he gave Rahmonov. 
 
CALMER ABOUT "COLOR REVOLUTIONS" 
 
¶11.  (C) Kubis commented he had last talked with Rahmonov Fall 
2005 in Paris and had found him then somewhat obsessed with 
"color revolutions."  This meeting, Rahmonov was much more calm 
 
DUSHANBE 00000502  003 OF 003 
 
 
and self-confident.  About "color revolutions," Rahmonov told 
Kubis, "We have to be vigilant, of course, but we understand 
they are caused mostly by economic issues." 
 
TAJIKISTAN NEEDS A FULL EU MISSION 
 
¶12.  (C) The Ambassador commented he had recently seen an 
excellent read-out of DAS Bryza's consultations with the EU, and 
had been struck with the European comment that the EU is 
"ham-strung" disbursing its considerable assistance in 
Tajikistan by lack of personnel on the ground.  He suggested to 
Kubis it might be time for Brussels to consider establishing a 
full mission in Dushanbe, given its assistance investment and 
given Tajikistan's emerging status as an island of stability and 
growth on Afghanistan's border.  (NOTE:  The EU currently has an 
"office" of only four people in Dushanbe headed by a 
working-level staffer.  END NOTE.)  Although his EU colleagues 
looked a tad pained, Kubis said he thought that was an excellent 
suggestion, and he would be glad to press it in Brussels, 
especially since it would help support "the corridor of reform." 
 He invited the Ambassador to Brussels, at his convenience, to 
brief on Tajikistan and the region. 
HOAGLAND