VZCZCXRO7963
PP RUEHBC RUEHKUK RUEHMOS
DE RUEHDE #1217/01 0631404
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
P R 041404Z MAR 06
FM AMCONSUL DUBAI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8843
INFO RUCNIRA/IRAN COLLECTIVE
RUEHDE/AMCONSUL DUBAI 1768
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 DUBAI 001217 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
LONDON FOR TSOU; PARIS FOR ZEYA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL:  3/4/2016 
TAGS: PGOV SOCI IR
SUBJECT: IRAN: ASSEMBLY OF EXPERTS ELECTION UPDATE 
 
 
DUBAI 00001217  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: Jason L Davis, Consul General, Dubai, UAE. 
REASON: 1.4 (d) 
 
1.(C) Summary: The next election in Iran to replace the members 
of the Assembly of Experts -- the group responsible for choosing 
the Supreme Leader and with the power to depose him -- is 
scheduled for sometime in summer-fall 2006.  Debate on 
logistical issues related to the election has surfaced in Iran, 
but it looks unlikely that any change to past practice will 
occur in this round.  Nonetheless, these public challenges are 
noteworthy because they demonstrate that the reformists retain 
some ability to pressure the leadership.  All will be watching 
to see if conservatives dominate these elections as they have 
the most recent municipal, parliamentary, and presidential 
elections, and the impact on the supposed power struggle between 
Ayatollahs Khamenei, Rafsanjani, and Mesbah-Yazdi.  End summary 
 
Proposed Amendments 
------------------- 
 
2.(SBU) The Assembly of Experts is composed of 86 religious 
scholars (mujtahid), directly elected for eight-year terms, with 
the next election forecasted for summer 2006.  This assembly 
elects the Supreme Leader and has the power to depose him. 
There is currently in Iran debate over four issues related to 
the next round of elections: 1) combining them with the next 
round of municipal elections to save money; 2) the degree of 
power the Council of Guardians should have in assessing whether 
potential candidates meet the definition of religious scholar; 
3) whether non-religious members should be added to the 
Assembly, given the fact that it is supposed to apply both 
non-religious as well as religious criteria to select a Supreme 
Leader; and 4) whether women can run.  Any amendments to the 
rules of the assembly have to be passed by the assembly itself. 
The first issue - a combined election - is the most likely of 
the four to be adopted in the near future, but probably not in 
time to impact this round. 
 
Combining Elections 
------------------- 
 
3.(S) The Interior Ministry is considering a proposal to combine 
Assembly of Expert elections with the next local elections, 
presumably for cost-cutting purposes.  The ministry is also 
considering combining future presidential and parliamentary 
elections.  According to a former MFA official who attended 
several meetings on this issue, each election costs 
approximately $10 million for the Interior Ministry and $10 
million for the Council of Guardians to administer.  There has 
been no decision yet, and the Interior Ministry, according to 
Iranian press reports, would not make the decision without 
consulting with the Assembly of Experts.  If approved in the 
very near future, press reports project the combined election 
would be held January-March 2007, effectively delaying the 
Assembly of Experts vote until next year.  The Interior 
Minister's deputy for parliamentary and legal affairs was quoted 
praising the proposal as reducing both financial expenditures 
and -- interestingly - "political tensions."  Most reformist 
political parties have opposed the idea, according to the 
reformist press.  The former MFA official told PolEconChief he 
doubted the idea would pass, in part because the Iranian 
government likes to tout the fact that it holds an election 
approximately every year.  Also, he added, bureaucratically it 
would be complicated, given that the Assembly of Experts would 
have to ratify its portion of the revision, while the Majles 
would have to ratify the portions related to municipal, 
parliamentary and presidential elections. 
 
Objections to the Council of Guardians' Role 
-------------------------------------------- 
4.(U) According to press reports, former presidential candidate 
-- and head of the new National Confidence political party -- 
Mehdi Karroubi recently proposed to Assembly of Experts Speaker 
Ali Akbar Meshkini that the Assembly of Experts take away from 
the Council of Guardians its vetting role in the elections.  The 
Council of Guardians currently has exclusive responsibility for 
verifying candidates' status as religious scholars, giving it 
vetting powers similar to those it has in other elections. 
Karroubi proposed that the endorsement of two sources of 
emulation (marja-e taqlid) should suffice.  Karroubi was 
recently quoted in the Iranian press saying that the review of 
qualifications for the Assembly of Experts candidates should be 
more open, "meaning for different ideologies to be able to take 
part in the elections within the Constitution, and for there to 
be no restrictions on the ideologies and tendencies like before." 
 
5.(U) Mussavi Tabrizi, a leader within the reformist faction of 
the Assembly of Experts, reportedly proposed a motion to reduce 
this power of the Council of Guardians but it failed in 
 
DUBAI 00001217  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
committee. 
 
6.(U) Abdolvahed Musavi-Lari of the reformist Militant Clerics 
Society was quoted in the Iranian press as saying that if 
vetting is "personal, factional, or exclusionary," the group 
probably will not participate.  He said those in charge of 
supervising the election should not reject candidates without 
having a [legally defensible] reason or approve of candidates 
who are not competent.  On the other hand, Secretary General 
Gholam Hussein Karbaschi of the more centrist Executives of 
Construction Party (and mayor of Tehran before Ahmadinejad) 
stated publicly their party would field candidates for the 
Assembly of Experts, as well as launch a newspaper soon. 
 
Opening Membership to Non-Clerics? 
---------------------------------- 
 
7.(U) Karroubi also reportedly raised with Meshkini the issue of 
allowing people other than religious scholars to run for the 
Assembly of Experts, according to reports in the Iranian press. 
The argument is that the Supreme Leader has responsibilities 
other than religious ones  -- issues related to the military or 
governance, for example -- and that therefore other types of 
experts should be involved in the selection process.  The 
Constitution says the Supreme Leader should meet non-religious 
criteria like sound political and social insight, management and 
leadership ability. 
 
8.(S) Assembly of Experts member and senior member of the 
Militant Clerics Society Majid Ansari reportedly drafted a plan 
proposing that one third of the seats would go to individuals 
proficient in areas outside of religion related to the Supreme 
Leader's responsibilities.  However, other members of the 
assembly have told the press that this plan was unofficial, not 
serious, and unlikely to succeed if brought up for 
consideration.  The former MFA official cited above, who is 
reportedly close to Rafsanjani, predicted that if Rafsanjani 
thought that opening up membership of the Assembly of Experts 
would help him, he would push for it, but the official doubted 
the measure would pass. 
 
9.(SBU) The spokesman for the Council of Guardians, Abbas Ali 
Kadkhoda'i, was quoted in the press as denouncing the concept of 
expanding membership, but later (likely after being chastised 
for stepping beyond the parameters of the Council of Guardians' 
area of responsibility) qualified his statement as his own 
opinion.  He said he believed it was unconstitutional but 
clarified that the Council of Guardians would apply such a rule 
if approved by the Assembly of Experts.  (Note:  The Iranian 
constitution is clear that the Supreme Leader himself must be a 
religious scholar, but is apparently less explicit when it comes 
to membership in the Assembly of Experts.) 
 
What about Women? 
----------------- 
 
10.(U) There have never been women members of the Assembly of 
Experts, but just as in the case of the 2005 presidential 
election, there is some questioning of this status quo in the 
press.  One recent Iranian article quoted Ayatollah Yazdi saying 
"There is no lawful bar to women becoming members of the 
Assembly of Experts.  However, we have no women that qualify, 
and no female religious scholars."  The writer disagreed that 
there no are female religious scholars and went on to conclude 
that by expanding membership in the Assembly of Experts to 
non-religious scholars, one would in any event eliminate this 
excuse for excluding women.  To support his argument for 
inclusion of women, the writer quotes the late Supreme Leader 
Khomeini: "Women also must be shoulder to shoulder with men in 
social and political activities." 
 
11.(C) An Iranian political and economic analyst recently echoed 
the writer's sentiments to PolEconChief, claiming that there are 
actually women mujtahids currently teaching in Qom.  Therefore, 
he said, women can in theory already stand for election; he 
doubted, however, that any could win. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
12.(C) None of these reforms is reportedly on the agenda of the 
March 7-8 Assembly of Experts meeting.  Since that is slated to 
be the Assembly's last meeting prior to new elections this 
summer, none of the proposed reforms seem likely to be 
implemented in the short term. Part of upcoming session, 
including a speech by Meshkini, will be public, and part will be 
closed.  The reform most likely to eventually be adopted is the 
first -- combining Assembly of Experts election with municipal 
elections -- but even that seems unlikely to impact this round. 
 
DUBAI 00001217  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
According to one Iranian source who works with UNDP in Tehran, 
the Islamic Republic "has never yet postponed an election." 
 
13.(S) The UNDP official commented that Karroubi, by merely 
raising such issues, is putting a lot of pressure on the system. 
 The official, educated in the U.S. where he lived for 15 years, 
commented that overall there has been a "quantum change" in Iran 
in recent years in terms of political development.  While the 
path itself is something of a zigzag, the overall direction, he 
believes, is positive. 
 
14.(C) There are rumors that Rafsanjani and/or Ayatollah 
Mohammad Taqi Mesbah-Yazdi will try to use this Assembly of 
Experts election to facilitate their own takeover of the 
position of Supreme Leader, by ensuring their supporters win a 
majority.  One contact claimed recently that Khamenei fears such 
a coup is brewing and intends to put Mesbah-Yazdi and 
Ahmadinejad back in their boxes, but only after they fulfill his 
first priority of squashing Rafsanjani.  In this contact's view, 
however, Khamenei overestimates his ability to control 
Mesbah-Yazdi and Ahmadimejad.  Iranian contacts have numerous 
theories on this issue which we will continue to report, but it 
remains unclear from the outside how serious this jockeying is. 
DAVIS