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OO RUEHBI RUEHCI RUEHCN RUEHLH
DE RUEHCI #0134/01 0901251
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O P 311251Z MAR 06
FM AMCONSUL CALCUTTA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0852
INFO RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI PRIORITY 0792
RUEHKT/AMEMBASSY KATHMANDU 0185
RUEHKA/AMEMBASSY DHAKA 0181
RUEHGO/AMEMBASSY RANGOON 0107
RUEHCN/AMCONSUL CHENGDU 0008
RUEHBI/AMCONSUL MUMBAI 0312
RUEHCG/AMCONSUL CHENNAI 0312
RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD 0129
RUEHLH/AMCONSUL LAHORE 0069
RUEHKP/AMCONSUL KARACHI 0071
RHMFIUU/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUEILB/NCTC WASHINGTON DC
RUEHCI/AMCONSUL CALCUTTA 1042

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CALCUTTA 000134 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PTER ASEC SOCI IN
SUBJECT: PARTIES JOCKEY FOR POSITION JUST DAYS BEFORE ASSAM STATE 
ELECTION 
 
REF: A)  CALCUTTA 0029;  B)  CALCUTTA 0032;  C) CALCUTTA 0071 
 
¶1.  (SBU) SUMMARY: On April 3 India's Northeastern state of 
Assam will begin its two-phased state assembly election.  The 
second phase will be the following week on April 10.  Even in 
the last hours of campaigning, the situation is still very 
fluid.  No party has a clear majority and yet no formal 
alliances have been announced.  Instead, parties have made 
arrangements in various constituencies, such as the ruling 
Congress Party's concession not to run candidates against the 
Bodo tribal party Bodoland People's Progressive Front - Hagrama 
(BPPF-H), which controls the Bodoland Territorial Area District. 
 The lack of formal alliances reflects the parties' desire to 
keep their options open in the post election jockeying to 
establish a government.  Adding to the instability is the 
continued possibility of violence from various ethnic groups. 
Congress is struggling to maintain its dominance but still 
appears likely to form a coalition government.  End Summary. 
 
¶2. (U) On March 1, the Election Commission announced a two-phase 
election for the 126-seat Assam legislative assembly. 65 
Legislative Assembly constituencies will go to polls in the 
first phase on April 3 and 61 on April 10.  Votes will be 
counted on May 11. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Even with polling just days away, the parties have yet 
to make any formal alliances.  The parties prefer to coordinate 
their campaign only in specific constituencies.  For example, 
the ruling Congress Party has an understanding with Bodo tribal 
party Bodoland People's Progressive Front - Hagrama (BPPF-H) 
which controls the Bodoland Territorial Area District that 
Congress candidates will not run in the Bodo areas.  Opposition 
regional party Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) announced it would not 
ally with Hindu opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), 
recognizing the potential importance of the Muslim community, 
which constitutes almost 30 percent of Assam's 26 million 
people.  In addition, the AGP has an understanding with a number 
of small Leftist parties like the Communist Party of India - 
Marxist (CPM), Communist Party of India (CPI), the Autonomous 
State Demand Committee (ASDC) and Bodo party faction the BPPF 
(R).  The parties will therefore avoid having candidates 
competing in the same constituencies. 
 
¶4.  (U) The recently formed Muslim party, the Asom United 
Democratic Front (AUDF), backed by the Jamiat-ul-Ulema-e-Hind, 
may have an understanding with the Nationalist Congress Party 
(NCP) led by former Lok Sabha Speaker Purno A. Sangma.  The AUDF 
leadership has claimed it will oppose the Congress for failing 
to protect Muslim interests.  However, while campaigning in 
Assam on March 30, Congress President Sonia Gandhi has said her 
party is committed to minority rights and has introduced the 
Foreigners' (Tribunals for Assam) Order 2006 under the 
Foreigners Act.  This order will protect illegal Bangladeshi 
immigrants, making the process for identification of an illegal 
migrant and possible deportation, too difficult and time 
consuming to implement.  The new order will effectively 
re-instate the Illegal Migrants Determination Tribunal Act 
(IMDT), which the Supreme Court found unconstitutional in July 
¶2005.  Though only a few months old, the AUDF is reportedly 
already plagued by factionalism. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) The lack of defined political alliances reflects the 
parties' desire to keep their options open in the anticipated 
wrangling to form a coalition government.  State Congress 
Secretary Pradut Bhuyan (protect) told post that no single party 
 
SIPDIS 
can hope to win an absolute majority in the assembly.  A 
coalition government led by the Congress Party seems to be the 
most likely scenario.  Assam Congress leader Bhubaneswar Kalita 
also commented that the party is intentionally avoiding 
discussing the fate of Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi to appease the 
ethnic minorities who feel Gogoi has failed to protect their 
interests and in a more blatant example of pandering, on 
February 27 the Congress government officially announced Assam 
is now called "Asom," the ethnic Assamese name for the state. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) An intelligence official told post that although the 
elections are expected to be mostly peaceful, terrorist group 
United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) or possibly unspecified 
Muslim groups could conduct attacks during the polling. 
 
CALCUTTA 00000134  002 OF 002 
 
 
According to media sources, ULFA has expressed apprehensions 
that if an AGP and BJP government comes to power as they did 
prior to 2001, there would be more secret killings and 
operations against ULFA members.  ULFA has also warned, through 
the local media, the political parties in Assam against 
encouraging people to vote, describing the elections as nothing 
more than a "farce" repeated every five years, which enables the 
Center to expand its "colonial rule" in Assam.  An ULFA 
statement released on March 30 said, "It is time the people of 
Assam reject political parties or leaders who do not have a 
definite plan or given a concrete assurance to solve the 
India-Assam conflict (sic)." 
 
¶7.  (SBU) COMMENT:  With no party likely to receive a clear 
majority, the presently ruling Congress appears most likely to 
be able to form a coalition government, given its existing 
dominant position.  Congress officials are hoping to receive at 
least 45 seats and then cobble together the 64 seats required to 
govern through alliances with a number of smaller parties. 
However, the Muslim vote will be decisive in the election.  In 
the past, they have voted en bloc for the Congress but now the 
vote will be divided between the AUDF and Congress.  A split in 
the Muslim vote gives a glimmer of hope to the AGP and BJP that 
they also have a small chance at forming a government. 
JARDINE