VZCZCXRO6457
PP RUEHBI RUEHCI RUEHLH RUEHPW
DE RUEHCI #0105/01 0620957
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 030957Z MAR 06
FM AMCONSUL CALCUTTA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0824
INFO RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI PRIORITY 0769
RUEHCG/AMCONSUL CHENNAI PRIORITY 0300
RUEHBI/AMCONSUL MUMBAI PRIORITY 0300
RUEHKA/AMEMBASSY DHAKA 0176
RUEHKT/AMEMBASSY KATHMANDU 0181
RUEHGO/AMEMBASSY RANGOON 0102
RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD 0125
RUEHLM/AMEMBASSY COLOMBO 0079
RUEHLH/AMCONSUL LAHORE 0067
RUEHKP/AMCONSUL KARACHI 0069
RUEHPW/AMCONSUL PESHAWAR 0053
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHMFIUU/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RUEILB/NCTC WASHINGTON DC
RUEHCI/AMCONSUL CALCUTTA 1007

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CALCUTTA 000105 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM SOCI PTER IN
SUBJECT: ELECTION COMMISSION SCHEDULES WEST BENGAL ASSEMBLY 
ELECTIONS 
 
REF: CALCUTTA 0003 
 
¶1. (U) Summary:  On March 1, the Election Commission (EC) 
announced an extended five-phase polling schedule for West 
Bengal's (WB) upcoming state legislative assembly election.  The 
phased schedule reflects the EC's intention to monitor polling 
closely in this state noted for vote rigging by the long-ruling 
Communist Party of India (Marxist)(CPM).  The EC recently 
deleted the names of over one million fake and dead voters from 
the voters' list.  Undaunted, CPM officials have staged a rush 
of new project inaugurations and groundbreaking ceremonies to 
burnish their Party's record of attracting development and 
private investment.  The CPM has also dropped "old-school" CPM 
officials who have questioned Chief Minister (CM) Buddhadeb 
Bhattacharjee's new mantra of economic reform and private 
investment from the Party's candidate list.  Opposition parties 
Congress and Trinamul Congress are still unable to form an 
alliance, as Trinamul leader Mamata Banerjee refuses to drop her 
association with marginal player Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). 
Meanwhile, Maoist violence against WB and CPM officials in south 
Bengal appears to be intensifying with the approach of 
elections.  End Summary. 
 
¶2. (U) On March 1, the Election Commission announced an 
unprecedented five-phase polling schedule for WB's legislative 
assembly elections.  Of the four states and one union territory 
scheduled to hold elections this coming April-May, WB is the 
only state with such an extended election schedule.  On April 
17, 45 assembly constituencies will go to the polls, 66 on April 
22, 77 on April 27, 57 on May 3 and 49 on May 8.  Votes will be 
counted on May 11.  CPM leadership, unhappy with the EC's 
intense oversight, has said that such a prolonged process in WB 
was unnecessary.  Alternatively, opposition parties are hopeful 
that the schedule will result in a fairer voting environment for 
their candidates. 
 
¶3. (U) EC observers are in WB March 1-9 for the third time in 
recent months to review pre-poll preparations, the electoral 
rolls and to assess the GOWB's execution of non-bailable 
warrants against criminals.  On February 22, the EC released a 
revised electoral list with 1.29 million dead or fake voters' 
names deleted and 2.14 million eligible names added.  The total 
list has 49 million voters; an increase of 851,000 voters since 
the last state assembly elections in 2001.  To ensure control of 
polling stations, EC observers will reportedly supervise 
paramilitary forces during the election. 
 
¶4. (U) Undaunted by the EC's challenge to their primacy, CPM 
officials, lead by the CM, have been campaigning aggressively. 
In recent weeks, the CM has inaugurated new high-profile 
development projects and broken ground on a new medical college, 
two hospitals, a management institute, a thermal power station, 
a book mall, redevelopment of an industrial township, a sugar 
refinery, a water-pumping project and a motorcycle factory, to 
list just a few examples.  To attract the Muslim vote, the CPM 
GOWB also announced that it would upgrade a 225-year old 
Calcutta Madrassa to a full-fledged college.  GOWB-funded 
billboards throughout Calcutta highlight the state's 
development, with slogans like:  "Agriculture is our foundation, 
industry is our future;" "Winds of industrialization are blowing 
over the cultural capital" and "Roads are meant not just for 
walking on, roads pave the way for economic progress."  CPM 
State Secretary Anil Biswas said that 3 million party volunteers 
are already canvassing across the state. 
 
¶5. (SBU) The CM and his supporters are using the elections to 
consolidate the CM's more reformist economic policies in the 
Party.  The party is dropping older party functionaries not 
fully committed to private investment, excluding sixty-four 
sitting Left Front MLAs, including eight ministers from the list 
of candidates released on February 16.  "Old-school" ideologies 
are being shed, literally, as all the senior CPM officials in 
the Education Ministry have been dropped for failing to 
introduce a new, market-oriented curriculum.  The CPM is also 
bringing in new blood, as 108 of its  candidates are first-time 
contestants, with 70 reportedly less than 40 years of age.  The 
total of 290 Left Front candidates include: CPM 210, Forward 
Bloc 34, Revolutionary Socialist Party (RSP) 23, CPI 13, 
 
CALCUTTA 00000105  002 OF 002 
 
 
Socialist Party 4, Democratic Socialist Party (DSP) 2, Marxist 
Forward Bloc 2, Revolutionary Communist Party of India (RCPI) 1 
and Biplabi Bangla Congress 1. 
 
¶6. (SBU) While the Left has kicked-off a well-organized 
campaign, the opposition parties have not yet been able to 
finalize an alliance or release their candidate lists.  Trinamul 
Congress leader Mamata Banerjee has been meeting with state 
Congress President and national Union Defense Minister Pranab 
Mukherjee, and central Congress leader Margaret Alva to 
negotiate a possible alliance between the two main opposition 
parties.  However, Congress is willing to forge an alliance with 
her only if she breaks with the BJP.  So far, Banerjee has not 
dumped the marginal BJP, despite persistent reports of 
disagreements between the two parties over seat-sharing.  State 
BJP President Tathagata Roy told post that Banerjee is insisting 
on allotting Muslim-dominated constituencies to the BJP where it 
could not possibly win.  Congress Working President Pradip 
Bhattacharya told post that this difference might provide a 
chance for the Congress to ally with Trinamul.  However, 
Bhattacharya said that the situation is very uncertain. 
Congress is forging ahead with planned alliances with some 
smaller parties like the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) and the 
Party for Democratic Socialism (PDS). 
 
¶7. (SBU) Meanwhile, Maoist insurgents appear to be stepping up 
their attacks on CPM officials and police in remote areas of 
south Bengal.  On February 26, a Maoist attempt to murder the 
Superintendent of Police in West Midnapore with a landmine 
killed three policemen and a villager.  Police believe this was 
a revenge attack by rebels against a crackdown launched by the 
government, which resulted in the arrest of two woman cadres on 
February 7.  On February 13, Maoists attacked a bank, stealing 
Rupees 160,000 (USD 3,608) and a police camp, looting ten guns 
in Purulia.  On January 23, Maoists blew up a forest bungalow in 
Bandwan, Purulia and on December 31 killed a local CPM leader 
and his wife.  The state government has appealed to the GOI for 
more security forces to tackle the Maoist menace in the run-up 
to the elections. 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Comment:  The EC is clearly taking its responsibility 
for ensuring free and fair elections in WB very seriously.  The 
upcoming elections will likely be the fairest ever held in the 
state.  However, the CPM is unlikely to lose its hold, given its 
entrenched position after 29 years of power and weak opposition. 
 The only real question will be whether CM Bhattacharjee can use 
the coming state elections to consolidate his position within 
the Left Front.  The election of his supporters will help him 
implement more aggressive economic reforms and curtail 
resistance from the party's old-line members. 
JARDINE